After Burnley extinguished any faint automatic promotion hopes, Boro’s focus now switches firmly to securing a play-off spot in our next game: Bristol City away on Monday, kick-off 5.30pm.
Congratulations to Vincent Kompany’s men. You’d have been forgiven for thinking that since Michael Carrick took over, Boro were a good match for Burnley but Friday night’s encounter told a different story. A brief rally after half-time and even a late, late Chuba Akpom chance to equalise gave Boro some respectability but, in truth, the visitors, motivated by the chance to seal promotion on the night, controlled the game.
Boro fans may have been mulling over Carrick’s decision to relegate Marcus Forss to the bench, preferring the combined control of Ramsey and McGree to the direct threat of the Finn, only to witness Burnley’s Nathan Tella provide both skillsets in one down the visitor’s right. That sort of quality is the difference between Premier League and Championship – a group of well-rounded players consistently playing to a well-suited tactical plan.
Carrick began his Riverside revolution in late October but Burnley are unbeaten since the 5th November – this really has been a superb season for The Clarets following their relegation from the Premier League.
Don’t be fooled into thinking a parachute-payment fuelled promotion was a given for them either. They lost the heartbeat of their side over the summer as dressing room leaders and club stalwarts Nick Pope, James Tarkowski and Ben Mee all retained their Premier League status via transfers to Newcastle, Everton and Brentford respectively. Kompany is a relatively inexperienced manager and has completely remodelled their playing style to boot after a decade of pragmatic Dycheball. You can’t praise them enough and they deserve their promotion with seven games remaining.
For Boro, it was a difficult evening that changed the tone of the run-in. We are now in a defensive position, hoping to hold what we have. Yet if the nine-point deficit to Sheffield Utd is too wide a gap to bridge, the seven point cushion to 7th placed Norwich should provide comfort, especially given that they’ve won just one of their last five. Preston look the most in form side of the chasing pack but we comfortably beat them – their only recent defeat – just three weeks ago.
Still, consecutive defeats is highly unfashionable for Michael Carrick’s Boro and he’ll desperately want to ensure two doesn’t become three as a blip threatens to morph into a bubble-bursting slump.
Nigel Pearson’s Bristol City sit 13th in the Championship table with no fears of relegation nor hope of promotion. A record of 13 wins, 13 draws and 14 defeats with a goal difference of 0 tells you everything you need to know about their season as a whole – average. They are also 13th in the form table with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6 after a good win away at Stoke on Friday.
At home however, they’re in better nick with 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6. Though, over the season as a whole, they are – you’ve guessed it – a pretty average 11th.
City’s goals have been well shared around with Nahki Wells and Tommy Conway both into double figures with 11 and 10 respectively, followed by Antoine Semenyo with 8 but clearly they don’t look a huge threat relative to the division’s top sides.
Boro fans may feel that our defence is the weak link but we’ve conceded the same number of goals as Bristol City (48) whilst scoring 24 more.
On Boro’s defence, a glance at the xGA stats shows that Boro’s play has seen us expected to concede 51 goals so far this season against the actual figure 48 goals against, whilst the goals for stats show an xG of 64 against our actual 72. Perhaps this shows that we’ve finished chances well over the season but haven’t done anything special in terms of avoiding goals. As a comparison, that makes us 6th for xG in the Championship (but 2nd for actual goals scored) and 5th for xGA (but 13th for actual goals conceded). So, over the season, we’ve overperformed on goals for but relatively underperformed for goals against, which rings true even if our defensive data is comparatively good. As a side note, only 7 sides have overperformed on xG whilst a whopping 20 have overperformed on xGA to some degree.
As a potential remedy, many Boro fans will be hoping that Dael Fry returns to the starting XI on Monday. Whilst McNair may be a touch more mobile and better on the ball than Boro’s “Big Lighthouse”, Fry provides a steadier, more conventional centre-half option that is missed in his absence. The Fry-Lenihan partnership has looked Boro’s best over the season and there is clearly enough attacking threat in the ranks to feel that the side doesn’t need Paddy’s passing from the back as much as Fry’s extra solidity. It’s not like Fry is a liability on the ball.
Elsewhere, the only decision seems to be whether Forss will be restored on Boro’s right. Marcus certainly carries a more direct goal threat than the likes of Ramsey but it’s a “nice problem to have” for Boro’s Head Coach. That said, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dan Barlaser given a start with such a short turnaround between fixtures and Boro's midfield two doing their fair share of chasing on Friday night.
With automatic promotion gone, Monday’s result won’t be season defining but after two defeats, we could do with a pick-me-up win to restore some lost momentum. Another defeat could swell the isolated outbreaks of panic at an unfortunate time, and it really would be a shame after everything this group has achieved over the past five months or so.
Can we bounce back?
Come on Boro.
A common sense point of view Andy on what may befall us, though I still think another season in the Championship would suit Boro better in the long run.
Excellent piece thanks Andy.
Fingers crossed it is a bounce back Monday but I am not holding my breath. 😎
A really thoughtful, stylish and generous opener, Andy, with which it's hard to disagree. Many thanks.
Ken,
I’d have to disagree about the advantages of another season in The Championship. In modern football, there is simply no substitute for the £140m a single year in the EPL generates.
Of course, the money can very easily be wasted, in which case it is pointless to have in the first place but if used wisely, the club can set itself up for a sustained period of relative success.
There’s no shame in a first time relegation in today’s game. It’s not fun at the time of course but that money, if used wisely, can be a platform far beyond what another year in The Championship would provide.
Ken,
I’d have to disagree about the advantages of another season in The Championship. In modern football, there is simply no substitute for the £140m a single year in the EPL generates.
Of course, the money can very easily be wasted, in which case it is pointless to have in the first place but if used wisely, the club can set itself up for a sustained period of relative success.
There’s no shame in a first time relegation in today’s game. It’s not fun at the time of course but that money, if used wisely, can be a platform far beyond what another year in The Championship would provide.
quite right. The mistake last time we were promoted was to spend like a drunken sailor. There is not a great gulf between the bottom of the Premiership and the top of the Championship and a team that can win promotion can stand up with some sensible additions. That way we can help solidify our finances and, if necessary, repeat the cycle.
What’s most important is to have a style of play that will survive in the premiership and I think that we have that. We probably need three or four genuine Premiership players We do have a problem in defence and I’m not sure what needs to be done to address it. Is it simply that our defenders are not good enough?
Anyway, tomorrow’s game will be a chance to steady the ship.
UTB
Thanks for the opener Andy.
By my calculation we need 12 points to guarantee a play off place, probably 11 due to our goal difference. That does not take into account the fact that our rivals play each other. Even if we lose tomorrow and then beat Norwich we would then only need 7 after that.
Looking at the goals against under Wilder it was 16 in 11 this season and under Carrick it is 27 in 25 with six of those in the last two games so was under a goal a game. Under Carrick we have scored 53 in 24 which is 2.2 goals per game. The question is if we scored less and kept more clean sheets would we have more points?
Note to Carrick ,
Don't fall into the trap of glossing over poor performances, we've had that too many times in the past, don't try and tell us what we didn't see
Move McNair to RB, bring in Fry, and Bola , Beurlaser ,Jones , and Crooks for B City
@gt Nice to see you again, mister. Keep on posting 😃. More poster, tye better. Welcome back.
There was nice story about Jonathan Woodgate on the Echo and Michael Carrick on Jonathan Woodgate's huge influence.
I am happy that we have a local boy in the management team at Boro. Local knowledge. Up the Boro!
On a follow up to my opinion,in know way am I having a go at Carrick I should have explained my point, I was saying we looked stale, change things, for BC, with a strong bench, the run on is tougher than Luton's, itchy bum time,
I didn't leave you guys , I got sidetracked ,to infantile, other silly nonsense, lm back Jarkko ,
It's quite funny isn't it. 24 games in the Championship under Carrick with a fantastic record but there's still a nagging doubt about how good we actually are. I think part of that is that he is new. Part might be that we don't seem to do the one thing that the very best teams do: draw.
We either play better than the other team and win or, occasionally, worse and lose. We're never second best but scrape a draw. We have won games despite not being at our best but even then we outplay the other team. You also see games like Sheff utd where we are being hammered, claw our way back into the game then outplay them on the way to winning. What you don't see is us clinging onto a game then managing to come out with a draw. We almost did it against Burnley. We were outplayed but kept in the game and could have ended up with a draw.
Seems to me that the ability to draw a game you should have lost is a mark of resilience and that, for me, is where the doubt lies. I worry that we're a fair weather team. We can turn games around; often because the other side takes a lead then sits back a little which allows us to play. We don't seem to be able to batten down the hatches, man the barricades and dust off the cliches.
Bristol City will be a good test. We're the better footballing side but they will feel that they can get after us and turn us over. We need to prove that we can bounce back after a blip despite several players looking like they might be suffering a bit of a dip in form.
I do suspect that we might be paying a bit of a price for not rotating enough up to now. All players at this level go through dips but we haven't really got the obvious back-ups like Dijksteel, Barlaser and Mowatt up to speed. It does sound like Fry may be more hampered than is apparent. We may see him back tomorrow but possibly he's being nursed through the last few games.
That said, I'll put my doubts aside and go for a clean sheet and win for us.
I think there’s some truth in that. Stoke at home is the only game that comes to mind where we got out with a draw.
I think it’s the make-up of the midfield that contributes to the relative lack of steel. Hackney and Howson are not defensive midfielders, they are both deep-lying playmakers in the modern game. We don’t have a natural midfield destroyer in the squad.
Ramsey and McGree are more advanced playmakers and Forss is more of a forward. The entire midfield is geared towards controlling the game via possession and creating chances rather than stopping the opposition. Throw in that our left back is really another midfielder and quite clearly the side is unbalanced in favour of attacking.
Of course, the majority of the time, it works for us. The style of play, the chances created and the goals scored are an absolute pleasure to watch after years of dour, shape-obsessed negativity.
Do we need to be more well-rounded though? Maybe, but it will have to wait until the summer because the squad doesn’t have the component parts to play a different way more effectively.
The short-term options that can help might be to play Fry - assuming he’s fit - as our most solid defender along with Lenihan. Using Bola as a defensive option from the bench more often could help too.
Djiksteel is a bit of a head scratcher. I’m a fan of his and don’t really understand why he’s had so few opportunities. Though he’s been a right back or centre-back for us, he played defensive midfield for Charlton and it could be that he’s our best option now, again from the bench. He just doesn’t seem to be on Carrick’s radar, however.
Anyway, these are not criticisms. I’m absolutely thrilled with how Carrick has turned our season around and got us playing some of the most entertaining football we’ve seen for many years.
Andy,
Thank you for a fine opening piece that sums Boro's situation up nicely, as Captain mainwaring would have said, "well done that man". If the club does achieve promotion through the play-offs I think we will enjoy a fairly torrid season and I'm basing that on the difference that was clearly visible between Burnley and Boro.
The big test for me is how Mr Carrick shapes the side at the end of the season when some of our starring loanees leave. That is going to be interesting. As for Monday, no predictions, just get Boro tuned-up and re-set to turn in a real flowing performance against one of those awkward teams whose only motivation could be making life difficult and spoiling the party.
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
UTB,
John
“Anyway, these are not criticisms. I’m absolutely thrilled with how Carrick has turned our season around and got us playing some of the most entertaining football we’ve seen for many years.”
I wholeheartedly second those comments and your overall critique of the squad, which is spot on. 😎
Thanks Andy
A great opener and hopefully we can get to do some previews for the game lay offs and the final ! (We’ll have to do a joint opener for that one !)
Some really intelligent detail in your stats which make things clear what Boro have achieved and what they have to do.
It will be interesting to see the team selection for Monday !
OFB
Hope you’re feeling better, Bob.
Andy, thank you for another excellent and informative opener. As to Bristol City game tomorrow, I don’t understand why people (not just on here) think Fry is carrying an injury, to me, at the Burnley game looked fine running up and down the touch line in his warm ups, I thought he was about to come on, why would Carrick have him on the bench if he is carrying a knock or injured 🤔 when there are other players who could use that place.
I would like to see the following changes for tomorrow, not just to freshen up the team but to show the “bench warmers” they are really part of the overall team and don’t have to just wait for injuries:
Fry for McNair
Barlaser for Hackney or Howson
Forss for Ramsey or Archer
I haven’t forgotten about Dijksteel but three changes would be enough and maybe Dijksteel could come on off the bench as well as others.
Come on BORO.
Well, what’s our wish for tomorrow? First and foremost a win - whether it’s a scrappy game or a game where Boro have a lot of defending to do. A Karanka style victory is called for.
Yes, I’ll take a 1-0 victory.
After two consecutive defeats conceding 6 goals it’s essential getting back to winning as three consecutive losses will feel like a disaster with Boro on the slide.
Unfortunately, defending and particularly keeping a clean sheet is not a Boro strength. In most games defensive mistakes are made giving the opposition opportunities to score. I feel Boro need to score two or possibly three goals to ensure victory. I’m sure opponents know that to beat Boro they have to put the defence under pressure .
The defects in defence have all season been camouflaged by the offensive play and lots of goals scored.
MC usually makes very few changes but because of the length of season, two defeats and this game coming quickly after Burnley I believe more changes than usual are needed. MC is always quick to point out the importance of the squad of players and so he needs to show his confidence in them with the changes.
I think Forss must play with his direct style and the amount of running he does, Barsaler surely deserves a chance, obviously Fry if he’s fit ( there’s been no info to say he’s carrying an injury) . I’d like to see Bola get some time on the pitch- he can defend.
The players to leave out - Hackney (just needs a rest ), Ramsey ( a talented player but not up to the cut and thrust of Championship football ) and McNair ( ok bringing the ball out of defence but not an out and out defender)
And so the result - it really could be one of three. I just don’t know but will be keeping everything crossed.
Philip of Huddersfield 👍👍
Another nice Headliner Andy, especially with the included stats, which obviously takes time and effort to produce.
As has been pointed out, MC does not go in for many game to game changes, nor many in game changes either. I do wonder what is going on with Barlaser. He came to Boro with a decent CV and was somebody we wanted, to pay a fee when we could of had him for free in the summer.
The midfield two have struggled recently, Howson more so, why has he not been started. Smith also has looked vulnerable of late with his lack of pace to balls over the top or one on one against pace. I think most on here thought Djiksteel had a good season last year, but does not even make the bench. Fry is the better defensive option to McNair in my opinion.
Irrespective of the stats, we have conceded 8 goals in our last four games and scored 7 and slipped to 14th in the form table.
I think confidence will have taken a blow, especially the Huddersfield defeat, and I believe a number of changes could possibly help lift the team.
As Exmil said, letting the bench warmers feel more part of the squad, as MC has alluded to, by giving them more game time during the run in and hopefully for the play offs.
However MC appears not to favour change so it could be the same team again, trying to redeem themselves. Whatever team is selected, it needs to ready from the off. A third defeat could really dent morale.
I thought that we were not Good in defence. Simple statement, with no simple answers. Two obvious mistakes cost us two goals. The First was pretty poor, man receiving ball on bye line midfield, our defender arrived on the scene at same time, no one else involved, empty field behind them both, half hearted attempt to block, did not smother him on the line, complete with ball, might have even been a foul, so what? Simple empty (long) path to goal. second goal, man is on dead ball line, not alone, pressing him is defender, for five strides. He could have flicked it off his toes for a corner at any time, quite what other idea he had is a mystery.
I really enjoyed your opener, Andy, which was terrific, as ever.
Tomorrow is another challenging game. I think we’ll need all the battling qualities we can muster against Big Nige’s mob. For me, as usual, any win will do, but I wouldn’t be desperately unhappy with a point.
Thanks Andy for your opener and the analysis of Bristol City's season so far. It is a match that until a few days ago we would be thinking that MC would have the Boro players up for another win. I said before the Huddersfield match that we had 8 must win games and unfortunately we have lost 2 of them with Huddersfield being the one that showed we have a fight on our hands to end the season in 3rd or 4th place (or in the worst circumstances to stay in a playoff place). I suspect the teams below us that are still hoping to get into the playoff places are now looking at us the way we were looking at Sheffield United though there are fewer games for them to catch us.
Looking at the fixtures and the latest form I think Luton will now hold on to 3rd place and will be surprised if we were to beat them on the 24th. Our 8 point lead (plus goal difference) over Preston and their fixtures (including against Millwall and Sheffield United) should keep, us clear of them. Blackburn's form recently has become up and down and they have several hard games to come. On paper I think Millwall have the "easiest" run to the end of the season. While Norwich are 7 points behind us, if we were to lose to Bristol City and they beat Rotherham, they will come to the Riverside on Friday knowing that if they beat us the gap will be down to one point (plus goal difference). Will MC's quiet talks before the matches be enough and will he put out the right players?
I expect to continue biting what little I have left of my finger nails until the end of the season and don't like the look of the teams that we could meet in the playoffs.
Thanks for the preview Andy and your exacting analysis of the current state of play - it certainly was a bad week for Boro with that surprise mauling by Neil Warnock's Terriers, followed by a mainly outclassed display against the league's runaway leaders.
I only had the Huddersfield game on in the background without sound as it was during a family visit but it was certainly a game of two halves with Boro spurning a number of chances in the first 45 before collapsing defensively in the second.
Burnley was a different story with a tight game that showed the opposition possessing a superior defence with perhaps a set of players that looked half-a-yard quicker all over the pitch.
Boro are possibly the best of the rest - probably better than the Blades - but handicapped by the bad start under Wilder. I'd agree that promotion waits for no man as there's never a bad time to be promoted as teams rarely get the chance to build an ideal team in the current cycle of football.
Let's not forget this Boro team have plenty of key loanees in Giles, Archer, Ramsey and Steffen - plus Akpom is surely destined for offers from PL clubs after what is looking like a 30-goal season and perhaps Riley McGree has shown he can play at a higher level too. And let's not even think about the odds of Michael Carrick having impressed some chairmen in the top tier.
So, it's all about securing promotion this season for me and then plotting survival next season - Boro do need something of a mini regroup though and perhaps assessing which players are maybe under-performing and why. Lenihan looks to have dipped in form and maybe he plays better with Fry as partner - McNair has his good points but has been caught out quite a few times in the last week with his lack of pace - though much of Boro's defence seems to lack pace and can be exposed when players with pace are allowed to run at them.
Still a top six finish probably only needs two more wins now and that should easily be achievable - whether Boro can win all their remaining games and see the Blades stutter is looking a big ask - though Sheff Utd have some tough games left and would need to win three of them to be certain of second spot. Boro can only concentrate on winning each game and keeping the momentum going and avoiding staggering into the play-offs.
That defeat to Huddersfield is looking better by the week. Millwall, Boro, Watford and now 2-0 up against Blackburn.
They play Sheffield Utd on Star Wars day.
Thanks for the opener, Andy. And good to see you back @gt.
Against Burnley the Boro came out 2nd best. Not disgraced, but clearly not an Olympic medal performance. Maybe just qualifying for the Final but not getting onto the podium so, on reflection, not really a silver medal-performance after all. Burnley looked faster in attack whereas Boro plodded through midfield slowly looking for openings that weren't there, and I had the impression Burnley were at 95% of their ability with Boro on 85%. And, as we know, the game is one of fine margins. Boro needed to be at 100% to win unless they were to be very lucky. Despite it all Boro probably should have equalised right at the end when Akpom headed wide from VERY close. That would have been robbery, but a very welcome point.
In the scheme of things, a defeat to Burnley this season could never be seen as a disaster. If it were then most of the teams in the Championship have had their own disasters already and Sheffield United may have one coming up. In my view the problem was the turning-over by a Huddersfield team that has been revitalised by Neil Warnock - not being defeated but collapsing in the 2nd half after going in 1 goal up at HT. That may have taken the stuffing out of the team. Going into the Burnley game on the crest of a winning streak is one thing but going into that game after coming such a cropper at Huddersfield is quite another. If we'd won against Huddersfield but then lost to Burnley, that may not have been a surprise to most football followers and obviously would have left us with 3 more points and probably more confidence as the Bristol City match looms... Warnock will save Huddersfield this season.
Like some others on here, I'd start with Forss out on the wide right and with Fry at the centre of defence. But what do I know? (Justified question if you look at my recent predicted scores). Hackney's performances have dipped in recent games.
How will the team perform at Bristol? I wish I knew but I am perfectly prepared to be surprised by a resurgent Boro team taking it to the opposition and returning to winning ways. I predicted a Boro win in the "predictor". I will stick to that.
Finally, I think the only time to be promoted is the present. It isn't possible to put all the positives in a team into the Bank for next season's REAL attempt at promotion, then to cherry-pick other teams for the positions we perceive as weaknesses, in order to storm to glory the following season. IF we stay down, there'd no doubt be Premier League clubs (whichever of the 9 or so "at risk" manage to stay up this season) looking carefully at Akpom if he hits the 30 goal target which now seems realistic. How many years has the club waited to find a 30-goal forward? So what makes us think we could easily replace him in the short period before the next season begins? And how much would such a player cost? Fry might fancy a regular starting place and he may have offers. Hackney might attract interest. Howson and McNair another season nearer to their departure from first-team football.
And in addition to Burnley and the Blades, let's say Luton made it through the play-offs, so that would leave Norwich still with parachute money to face us next season, a much improved West Brom, a Sunderland team solidly consolidated in the Championship and ready to make a push for promotion together with clubs like Watford (also with parachute money) and Blackburn in adddition to the 3 teams coming down from the Premier League. Imagine: that might be Southampton, Leicester and Leeds or Everton with their support and parachute payments. IF Boro were still to be in the Championship next season, you'd HOPE a promotion push could be sustained, but there'd be a lot of hot competition with no guarantee we'd get our heart's desire at the end of it. No! If we have a chance of promotion this season, let's grab it. We can worry about next season when it comes. But even a relegation from the Premier Leauge in 2023-24 would have seen renewed interest in the Boro, possibly a near sell-out stadium, and a large pot of money over the next 2-3 years which, if sensibly spent, could finance another attempt to scale Everest.
Not all promoted teams come straight back down. Forest MIGHT survive this season in the Premier League, Fulham have no such worries and neither do Brentford. Wolves went up a couple of season ago and are still there. The more difficult thing is to go up in the first place so, when you are presented with an opportunity of promotion, grab it straight away rather than gambling that, next season, we might be better placed to take it. There may be no better opportunity than now.
Boro are certainly due a win today as they haven’t won any of their last 7 matches on Easter Monday losing 5 of them, although they have won 4 of their previous nine matches at Ashton Gate drawing one of them also.
@forever-dormo Good post Dormo. As the saying goes:
”A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”
@david-in-cumbria. No Fry on the bench, injured according to the EG. 😎