After Boro fought back to Ashton Gatecrash the Bristolian party on Monday, the next challenge is a home encounter with Norwich City on Friday evening, kick-off 8pm.
Three: At 2-0 down shortly after half-time, Boro were staring down the rusty barrel of a third consecutive defeat – the first time that would have happened for three years. Even the postcode for Ashton Gate is BS3 (and BS it certainly was at times from Boro, though I’d better leave that there to avoid another outbreak of interDiasborian squabbling!).
What a comeback it was. A delicious diving header from Aaron Ramsey was bettered again by a sumptuous team goal, with stand-in striker Matt Crooks beautifully finishing low to the keeper’s right. Archer matched the strike late on but was correctly ruled offside as this time Boro couldn’t make it three. The Robins were rocked.
Let’s not fool ourselves though – Boro shot ourselves in the foot. Bristol City were game and had runners but both goals were gifts with defenders falling over themselves and failing the basics. We can’t keep doing it, Carrick said it himself, though this latest episode was more calamitous than usual. Three points were there for the taking had our solidity been as competent as our finishing.
Still, Boro remain well placed for the playoffs and coming back from two down certainly feels better than giving away a lead, so perhaps there will be a renewed confidence to take into Friday night’s game.
Still on the theme of threes, this will be Boro’s third consecutive appearance on Sky Sports, a sure sign that that we are contenders. Not since the days of Aitor have we featured so regularly on the small screen.
David’s Wagner’s Norwich City arrive at the Riverside on the back of a disappointing goalless draw with Rotherham at Carrow Road, which saw them slip to 8th place in the Championship. Seven points behind Boro, they will be eying this fixture as an opportunity to make up some important ground on a potential playoff rival.
Wagner took the Norwich reigns in early January after the sacking of Dean Smith (who notably took over at Premier League Leicester City this week on an interim basis – the managerial merry-go-round, eh?). In his 15 games thus far, it is a solid record of W7 D4 L4 G22 A13 – enough for fourth place in the division over that timeframe. Boro would be third in that table with just three additional points.
Whilst it is early days for Wagner, his current win percentage of 43.8 (there’s a lost cup game in there too) is the second highest of his managerial career, following 47.5% at his previous club, Swiss powerhouses Young Boys. Wagner did, of course, oversee an outstanding Championship promotion with unfancied Huddersfield Town back in 2017 via the playoffs, and perhaps bettered that by keeping them up the following season.
In terms of most recent form, however, Norwich are down in 19th with just one win in their last six, though that win did come away to Blackburn Rovers on Good Friday. Away from home, it is two wins in the last six and just the one defeat, so it does appear that The Canaries are more comfortable on their travels in this post-honeymoon period for Wagner. Indeed, under Wagner, Norwich have travelled to Preston, Coventry, Millwall and Blackburn and beaten the lot of them. This appears to be a side who perhaps struggle to get up for the more mundane Championship clashes but rise to the occasion for the bigger games, especially away. Uh-oh.
With talisman Teemu Pukki heading for the exit door on just 10 goals, there doesn’t appear to be a particular danger in the Norwich ranks. Notably, Aaron Ramsey, who now has four goals to his name for Boro, is still Norwich’s fifth highest scorer with three from his earlier loan spell there.
However, Norwich are fifth in the xG table over the season with 1.63 expected goals per game – three places and 0.08 ahead of Boro, which does suggest they are among the divisions more creative sides. That said, they have converted only 1.32 goals per game against Boro’s 1.80 so they do not appear to be the best at taking those chances. Defensively however, they’ve been solid, conceding only 42 goals – the divisions fifth best record. Again, both metrics for them are better away from home than at Carrow Road.
For Boro, after a third game without a win, there will be renewed calls for changes to the XI. Fry has now been confirmed as injured which at least explains his recent absences but we can perhaps expect Archer and McGree to return. That may further improve our attacking options but it’s at the back where all the question marks lie. Giles and McNair continue to concern defensively, whilst Smith and Howson both appear to have struggled with the intensity at times of late. Whether that will lead to any changes is doubtful as Carrick has been doggedly consistent with much of his game to game selection. Only Forss, McGree, Ramsey and Archer are rotatable it seems, at least whilst Fry is out.
The case of Dan Barlaser does seem to become more curious with each passing match. Under Wilder, his continued absence would have been deemed pigheadedness from the Head Coach and it does seem odd that the club have signed him to sit firmly on the bench – he very rarely even makes a substitute appearance. Djiksteel and Bola may also wonder where their next appearance is coming from whilst Rodrigo Muniz must have given up some time ago as midfielder Crooks is regularly preferred when Archer is rested.
Still, when the side is winning, often by big scores, there are no broken parts to fix. The mood has changed a little after recent results and Carrick’s management may be about to come under it’s first period of scrutiny, especially as Norwich will pose a serious threat next up.
The feelgood comeback will likely have done some good to Boro’s mood and the Riverside has been a source of home comfort for some time now. I expect Boro to be energised and eager to widen the gap to Norwich on Friday night but also expect a very tough test against a talented Championship side who enjoy the big games on their travels.
A repeat of the victory down at Carrow Road back in November – one of the season’s best from Boro as a late strike from Crooks sealed a comeback win – would do very nicely.
Come on Boro.
(PS Get well soon, OFB)
Thanks Andy for a great opener
Keeping the three thing going I’m going for ….
Middlesbrough3
OFB
@andy, I think you misssed Josh Sargent of Norwich. The American has scorred eleven goals this season - so one more than the Finnish strikers Pukki and Forss - both at 10 a piece.
Thanks for the starter again. Up the Boro
@jarkko Yes I saw that, just meant that Pukki was their traditional threat but seems to have regressed a bit this season as he's on his way out.
Wonderful, Andy. Thanks. We’ll obviously have to be much better in this one than we have been in the last 3 games, especially at the back. But I think Howson will be well up for this one against his old club, so I do think we can sneak a win on home ground. What’s the phrase? Oh yes, any win will do!
I have to miss this game, thanks to Sky. My PNE-supporting mate is celebrating his golden wedding on Friday night. He deliberately organised it for then as he knew we would both be going to games on Saturday. So thanks for nowt, Sky.
And even our next two games - Hull and Luton - are also both live on Sky. That’ll be 5 on the trot. Some other clubs and their fans will be getting pretty dischuffed about that, I guess, but Steve Gibson will have covered a month’s wage bill!
@andy-r Yes, I think Markus Forss is better of the two this season. Also the same at Finland International level. Pukkki is a great player but Forss is getting better every year as Pukki is getting old. He was 33 in March. UTB!
A great starter, Andy. Thanks again for all your efforts (and get well soon too OFB).
Thanks for the double Headliner Andy and I hope OFB is soon back to his best scribing.
Even after a few days it is still difficult to take too much comfort from our Bristol game. Obviously the Teams belief that they could come back was good, but even as a Team the forward players must shake their heads in disbelief at some of the “comedy of errors” on Monday.
Of course MC has we know, little room for manoeuvre concerning the back seven. But can he afford to not seriously make one or two changes in those positions? If I had to make only one then it would be at RB. MC was going to make that change until Crooks scored and then did not want to upset the achieved improvement.
I would continue with Archer up top, and Forss initially on the right. Personally I think he was criticised unfairly for not protecting Smith enough. You certainly cannot criticise him for Smith’s lack of pace. He also has more pace than McGree.
However MC may just start with the original line up. I do not think any of us now, can see Barlaser getting many minutes in this season for some reason only the Boss knows.
Lets just hope we can get back to winning ways and cement our current position.
@jarkko - 33 - a youngster. Ask Bob (or Ken)!
@andy - you have got these openers down to a "T" (or is it "Tee", or even "Tea"?). I have a certain amount of tepidation about the game in light of what I perceive to be an upturn in Norwich's form at just the right time for them, as the play-offs come into view. I have NO IDEA what will happen but I will have my fingers crossed. It would be great if Boro could score the three suggested by Bob.
I doubt there will be many changes, if any. Michael Carrick doesn't seem to do them unless almost forced into them, but we will see...
Have Boro and Michael Carrick been sussed out by opposing coaches. Certainly Neil Warnock has his number.
Neil gave up possession of the ball against Boro for two thirds of the pitch with his 11 players behind the ball. He stopped Boro attacks down the wings ( when Boro did manage this, Giles crossed for a headed goal by Akpom) So this forced Boro to go through a very congested midfield and when the moves broke down Huddersfield attacked with pace. Boro’s defenders had no answer. He also used his centre forward to compete against McNair with 50 yard punts up field with McNair heading the ball out of play and Huddersfield gaining 50 yards up the pitch. This avoided trying to play the ball out of defence. Very clever by Neil.
He did exactly the same against Blackburn on Monday and with virtually two quick attacks scored twice. He then defended and came within 3 minutes of securing a 2-1 win.
He has a clear way of winning games. So far MC has had a way but I now think opposition coaches are seeing a way to score and win against Boro.
I believe the time has come for a change of playing plus more changes in personnel. But I don’t think MC will not do it which I think is risky.
So, unlike a few games ago when I was expecting wins I’m not so optimistic.
Philip of Huddersfield
Fd - I’m a bit lukewarm about your “tepidation” 😉@andy - you have got these openers down to a "T" (or is it "Tee", or even "Tea"?). I have a certain amount of tepidation about the game in light of what I perceive to be an upturn in Norwich's form at just the right time for them, as the play-offs come into view. I have NO IDEA what will happen but I will have my fingers crossed. It would be great if Boro could score the three suggested by Bob.
I doubt there will be many changes, if any. Michael Carrick doesn't seem to do them unless almost forced into them, but we will see...
Have Boro and Michael Carrick been sussed out by opposing coaches. Certainly Neil Warnock has his number.
I think this is overdone. Clearly scouts watch each team and come up with a plan. Each manager then adjusts their tactics. You get a certain surprise value for a while but other teams will have their ideas about our strengths and weaknesses and we will be working on counters.
You know if you plan to play out from the back that one of two things will happen. They will try to press in which case it becomes a battle of attack vs defence pretty close to your goal. Screw up and you're in trouble but break the press and they're in trouble.
Or they can sit back and let you have the ball until you reach a certain point then contest it.
Two years ago, Boro fans were calling Warnock a dinosaur who knew nothing about modern tactics. Now suddenly he's a genius. The reality is, of course, somewhere between the two. What he excels at is giving an immediate shot of confidence into struggling players and giving them an easy way to play. It works for a while but is also self-limiting. He plays with a man-marking system that lives or dies by players running themselves into the ground.
9 times out of 10, in that match, we don't concede early in the second half and continue to dominate the game, ending up 3-0 winners. However, this was that one match in 10.
Norwich, on paper, have a better team than us and they know that they need a result. If they get it right, we will struggle. That said, they'll be dreading playing us right now.
That all said, Carrick has relatively little room to tweak things. Some of that is because he chose to be consistent rather than rotate. If Fry is still out, pretty much his only decision is which two out of Forss, McGree and Ramsey to pick. He's unlikely to want to bring in any of Barlaser, Mowatt and Dijksteel because they haven't started a match in months. So, it's going to be down to his usual starters.
Thanks for your double shift Andy. A Boro win would I'm sure help OFB's recovery but Carrick needs to urgently sort out our poor defending to make sure we stay in the top six, preferably 3rd or 4th, and take the momentum into the playoffs. As has been mentioned Carrick has been keeping the same defenders apart from when Fry lost his place because of suspension and injury and he has not given any indication that he will at this stage change the defence to start a match. I think the lack of speed of both Smith and McNair is now showing when we are under pressure rather than previously when we were dominating games. In midfield, Hackney's form has slipped which is not surprising given his inexperience and he is liable to get sent off if he keeps putting in poor challenges in trying to make up for it. Perhaps McGree should start instead of him. I also hope we can get back to Forss, Ramsey and Archer together again. Akpom of course has to continue his deeper role while turning up to score from Giles' crosses.
The Norwich game is our chance to show we are better than one of the teams chasing us but our recent struggles are taking me back to my usual pessimism. I am desperately hoping that we will return to our form from before international break and it is not that our opponents have found us out.
SO MANY good posts above.
Thanks for the opener Andy
Norwich may be struggling defensively tomorrow Grant Handley and Ben Gibson are both out as is Kenny McLean. Apparently Pukki hasn't scored in 11 games and not at Carrow Road since September. A win for us would go down well with my wife's family who are Ipswich supporters. My brother in law even refuses to visit Norwich he dislikes them so much.
Thanks Andy for another great opener.
It’s all about the results now and whilst we all would like to get back to playing like we did before the international break, a win or at worst a draw is what is most important.
My fear is that we will make the play offs but not on the crest of a wave and with a lot of tired minds and legs.
Whatever happens it has been a far better second half of the season than any of us could have imagined, so I for one intend to continue enjoying the ride. Boro throttle the canaries 1-0. 😎
Can Coburn play in the play offs? An option off the bench if he can, tomorrow Mcgree must play, we are more explosive when in the team, and defence as got to stop panicking
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Can Coburn play in the play offs? An option off the bench if he can, tomorrow Mcgree must play, we are more explosive when in the team, and defence as got to stop panicking
An interesting question @gt. That option is probably represented by Crooks when he comes off the bench. Looking at it from the other viewpoint, I'm assuming that all loan deals run through any play-offs.
I agree with you about McGree. He is the oil that keeps our front machine running. He puts in an amazing amount of work both in forward pressing and helping out the defence. He is also suprisingly creative as evidenced by the headed opportunity that he created for Akpom against Burnely and the goal chance near the end against Bristol City.
Its not that the defence is panicking it's just that at times they seem rooted to the spot as people run into the penalty area or they don't play safety first when we're under pressure. I know that we score a lot from creative counter-attacks which are often triggered from winning the ball on the edge of our own box but we've also given away goals when not clearing that same area.
UTB
A good post which set me thinking (brain fog clearing!)
I don’t think Paddy is a central defender. He is a cultured player who is capable of some great passes forwards but his lack of pace nearly always causes the opposition to have a goal scoring opportunity.
Howson and Hackney have both seemed “leggy” over the past few games and it’s hardly surprising really when we have a mature player who has played a lot of football these past few weeks. Our other central midfielder Hackney is still a young player in his first season and he too has run out of steam a bit. His other problem is if he charges into a wild tackle and gets booked early in the match it restricts his performance for the rest of the game fearful of a red card.
The other problem I noticed was that the attackers were not defending from the front and also not tracking opposing players back to help our defence when under pressure.
Linehan and Smith have both made mistakes in the last few games which has proven to be costly resulting in goals scored against us.
So whilst I don’t pretend to know all the answers it could possibly be worthy of consideration to move Paddy forward into a midfield role and replace the right sided central defender witj Dijksteel. He has played in this position before and if the coaching team have noted the mistakes in defence then perhaps they have been practising this formation all week in training.
So if we move Paddy into central midfield who makes way for him? Is it Howson or Hackney? If Howson gets a rest then his defence splitting forward balls would be missed. If young Haydn is the guy to go then Boro would miss his energy in the centre.
McGree has to start as his influence on the team is infectious with his strong running and goal scoring shots on target.
So do we replace the full backs? It would limit our assists on the left hand side if we removed a player who has the most assists in the league. Perhaps he could play further forward and Bola be introduced who can defend and also has a goal shot or two in his boots.
So after doing a lot of head scratching I’m pleased it’s not my decision to make and change the team for tonight’s game.
But !
After resting Howson for a week and having faith in his players who have produced results in attaining where we are in the league I don’t expect any changes from our manager.
Its good to have a think about it isn’t it?
I'm going to watch Middlesbrough3 come roaring back!
OFB
It’s my understanding that Coburn would have finished his loan period when the league has finished. It would only be extended if his loan club were in the playoffs.
If Coburn returned to Boro in time them it could prove an option rather than pushing Crooks into a makeshift centr forward role.
I must confess that Crooks has disappointed me this season and wonder if it’s time to move him on?
OFB
Oh by the Way!
AndyR
Many thanks for doing a double shift for the blog it’s appreciated especially by me and all the other Diasborians.
Well done you !
OFB
@original-fat-bob. Some good posts OFB, thank you. Sounds as if you are on the mend which is good to hear. 😎
Glad to hear recovery is making progress - Unfortunately the rules on returning loan players changed a few seasons ago and now a loan player can't play for his parent club again until the next transfer window opens as the registration now lasts until the next window. So Coburn won't be able to feature.
Regulation 53.1.4 states: “A player whose standard loan expires (or terminates) at the end of the season of the transferee club but prior to the completion of the league matches of his parent club (where it is a member club) will not be eligible to play in any remaining league matches in that season.”
Thanks Werder oh buzzer !
I remember now !
I’ll blame the brain fog !
feeling much better now the Covid turned into long Covid and a chest infection.
OFB
Onto Norwich and many thanks to Andy for perfectly setting the scene with extra-time preview - it's all about securing the three points tonight in order to make the play-offs little more than a formality for the remaining run-in.
I fancy Boro will be up for this one from the start and as long as there are no more defensive mishaps then it should be more comfortable than the Burnley game. Boro have a good home record under Carrick and with the crowd behind them it should feel a bit easier for the tiring players.
The pressure is more on the Canaries who are drifting towards mid-table after just one win in their last six - though having said that, Boro have now won only three from their last eight so clearly Michael Carrick's men have lost that winning habit of late. However, that's mainly down to defensive failures as they've still scored 18 goals in their last 8 - but have conceded 2 in four of those eight.
As to team selection - well Hackney may be under pressure but since his arrival he has been the missing midfield pivot that breaks the lines - comfortable receiving the ball in tight areas and making forward passes that were lacking under Wilder. Perhaps the opposition know this from video analysis and press and target him more so maybe Carrick could encourage more longer balls from defence to runners to keep them guessing.
If Fry is fit he should start ahead of McNair who rarely looks comfortable when being pressed and lacks the pace to deal with mobile threats when covering Smith. Surely the coaching staff will have worked on the defensive issues after Bristol but not many options left at this side of the season.
So if Boro score 3 they should win - the question is will it be by just 3-2? Here's hoping for three valuable points for the cause!
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Thanks Werder oh buzzer !
I remember now !
I’ll blame the brain fog !
feeling much better now the Covid turned into long Covid and a chest infection.
OFB
@Original Fat Bob
All the best for a good recovery
UTB
I think one of the problems with our defence within the tactics we play is pace generally - we push up the field and leave some space behind but none of our regular back line - whether that's Fry or McNair - have real pace. The quickest of the quartet is Giles but he's usually the one highest up the field.
It's something we'll likely need to address over the summer whichever division we end up in as a ball over the top causes us all sorts of issues, especially as Steffen seems to stay back more than he did at the start of the season and doesn't sweep up as much outside his area.
Djiksteel and Bola both do have pace but obviously have weaknesses elsewhere. I think Carrick appreciates Smith's experience and leadership qualities especially with young plays like Hackney, Forss and previously Jones ahead of him. If McGree shifts to the right in place of Forss, I think there's more reason to give Djiksteel a go. He could play at centre-back as well but we've not seen him centrally in a four and I wonder if that's causing the same problems as McNair playing there.
I do think the defence misses Djiksteel's pace and one-on-one defending - he regularly got us out of a hole under Wilder (before the wins ran out) but accept that he has a clanger in him too. Bola is less of an option because Giles is so creative for us - you'd have to move Giles further forward but that would likely result in him having less time and space to measure his crosses.
It is interesting that, in the posts about tonight’s Norwich game, no one seems to mention Barlaser to replace either Hackney or Howson. I know he hasn’t had much game time but the little I have seen of him, he seems calm on the ball, can see a through pass and reads the game well. With 5 matches (possibly 8) to go, is the management nervous about making the change, what are the thoughts of diasboro 🤔.
Come on BORO.