BORO Home v Sheffield Wednesday
Riverside
7.45pm, Wednesday March 22 (4.45am, Thursday March 23, Sydney)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My last few intros have all been for midweek matches that were close on the back of a weekend game. In those cases, I usually decided to write a pre-intro piece to give me a chance to get going earlier and then updated it after the earlier match. This time, with everybody writing their thoughts about where we stand, the blog was full of comments which more than covered the set-up for both the Ipswich game and for those coming after, starting of course with Wednesday’s match against Wednesday and rounding out with two more Ws, namely Watford and Wrexham.
Therefore, I decided to wait until the Ipswich game was over. So here we go.
Firstly, I can confirm that we have officially fallen victim to one of the top entries in this year’s Softest Penalty of the Year competition. That means that we can look at the table and draw the obvious conclusion; - if Ipswich don’t drop at least 4 points from their two away games this coming week, they will be out of sight, and we will be preparing for the playoffs.
Having said that, Ipswich is not our only problem. We could also find ourselves behind Millwall, who have three easy games, or Southampton, who seem able to win every game they play, no matter how well they perform. Southampton do have the small matter of a home game against Ipswich which will be fun to watch. I must admit that, after Ipswich stole our win, I will be rooting for Southampton.
It always makes me laugh when people use that verb. Here in Australia, it has a completely different meaning to the American idiom where it signifies strong support for a team. You can all look it up for yourselves but, suffice to say that you can guarantee a good smile down here by saying that you will be rooting for your team.
But I digress…. Let’s look at a few questions that are slightly more pertinent to where MFC stands as a team and where we stand as followers.
Q1. Do we have a chance of still making the automatic promotion slot?
Mathematically, the answer is yes but I would put it at around 5%, maybe 10%. With three games to play, we can get to a maximum of 82 points. Leaving aside goal difference for the moment, our close rivals need the following to get to 83.
Ipswich (76) need 7 points from four games. They have three away games against Charlton, WBA and Southampton. Then they have an easy ending to the season at home to QPR. Charlton and WBA are on the verge of the relegation battle and could do with a point or two to be safe. Ipswich could draw/lose any of the three away games but one must expect them to beat Charlton. The other two games are more speculative. We need them to lose six points which could come from WBA and Southampton. However, that could make Southampton’s task easier.
Millwall (76) need 7 points from three games against beach-dwellers Stoke and then Leicester and Oxford. Leicester is in free-fall and could be setting a record for the swiftest ever fall from Premier League winners to Tier 3 (10 years) or FA Cup winners to Tier 3 (about 5 years). Oxford are in trouble but could still be battling. There is a small chance of Millwall tripping up.
Southampton (75) need 8 points from three games. 8 is an impossible number from three games and so they have to get 9. They have easy games against Bristol City and Preston. That leaves their home game with Ipswich. If they win, that will probably get them the 9 points and knock us out of automatic.
So, if anyone wants to track how this is going, the first stop is Tuesday and Wednesday. Assuming that we beat Sheffield Wednesday, nothing changes even if the other three teams all win. If any of them drop points that would be an unexpected bonus.
Q2. Do we have a chance of missing out on the play-offs?
Mathematically, the answer is yes. However, I don’t want to even think about it. Why, you may ask. After our performance against Ipswich, we should have no problem in getting the 4 points or, with goal difference taken in, more likely 3 points, that we need, and my personal sanity doesn’t need me worrying about any other outcome.
Q3. How do I feel about the season.
It has been one of the most enjoyable seasons that I can remember. Boro have, by and large, played a style of football that is adventurous, entertaining and successful. Even better, we have done this without players in key positions who would be better adapted to fit in with the coach’s systems. Even better, we have a head coach and management team who have an exciting, positive way to play and who seem to be decent people. I can live with us not getting promoted this year if we can look forward to a season next year that is even better than this one.
Q4. Do I think that we could get promotion via the play-offs?
Let’s assume that we end up in 5th or 6th. Based on the way that we have played against good teams, I am reasonably positive that we could do well against Ipswich or Southampton. Hull or Wrexham will be sixth and so are unlikely to figure unless they pull of an even bigger shock. Based on the first half against Millwall, we would be OK but I still have nightmares about the way they bullied us in the second half. However, I am positive that we are in better shape than people think and I look forward to Hackney, McGree, Jones and Bangura being available to reinforce the squad.
To finish, looking round the other divisions, it certainly looks like a year of change. Spurs or West Ham could be relegated. Leicester almost certainly will be relegated to League 1. Lincoln have dominated League 1 and will be storming into the Championship. Will they lose their manager? Sadly, poor old Rotherham have continued their yo-yo existence but this time in the wrong direction and have fallen into League 2 and will be replaced by Bromley. There are a lot of other things still to be sorted out before we get to the thud and blunder of the play-offs.
The other interesting question is to watch what KH does to both rest players and get them up to speed for the playoffs. If we beat Sheffield Wednesday, there must be a temptation to give people a rest with maybe 45 minute run-outs in the last two games. The biggest question is Hackney who seems to be one of the very few midfielders in the Middlesbrough set-up or even the whole division who can carry the ball smoothly past opponents so that everything opens up in front of him. Aidan Morris has been doing an extraordinary job pretending to be two players at once, but he must be desperate for his partner in crime to come back. As a final question to the group; - is Morris the best acquisition of the last few years? There must be a case to argue that he is.
Anyway, as for me, I’m surprisingly happy about the state of things and looking forward to some fun.
Best to all
UTB
A great opner there, Selwynoz. I totally share your opinion. It has been a great season and it will be fun to watch where we end uo in May. All is still possible even it looks like playoffs.
So next it will be Wednesday on Wednesday. A must win game again. Hopefully we get a win we deserve. Finally.
Up the Boro!
Thanks Selwyn for your excellent, informative and thought provoking opener; a most enjoyable read.
As has been said before, much is still possible but also unlikely, whilst also probable but also improbable; in the end what will be will be.
I agree it has been a most enjoyable season when compared to many of the last decade, I just hope that at the end it doesn’t turn out to be a missed opportunity that is regretted further down the line.
Tomorrow night is likely to set the tone as to what to expect for the remainder of the campaign and fingers crossed it is a positive one and that we can beat the low block if it is employed. 😎
It's always a pleasure to read a well-written analytical piece by someone who is far brighter than your average journalist, and who is able to do their job in far greater depth and with much more acuity and insight than they generally possess. So thanks, Selwyn, as ever, for summing up precisely where we stand for the final run-in, and giving us an opener of the highest quality.
A great contribution to a fantastic blog, and I agree with your comment on how enjoyable this season has been.
Can we console ourselves if we don't make promotion this season with the high probability that we would get slaughtered most weeks in the Premier League, but would serious contenders next season in the Championship? Which of those two outcomes would we actually prefer?
Selwynoz
That really sums the situation up nicely. Possibles, probables and maybes all thrown in and Boro have let it slip through their fingers, like a few other members I'd prefer to have a similar season to this one in the Championship rather than an ongoing humiliation in the Premiership most weeks.
For me the recruitment for 26/27 will be really interesting and maybe we'll see a slightly different policy? Politics allowing of course. So an interesting end to the season and the times ahead are going to be equally interesting.
OFB, I hope you are recovering, take care and get well.
ATB everyone.
UTB,
John
That starter is just what we needed. Great work, Selwyn and a fantastic summary of what’s to come.
A win tomorrow and I think we can relax a little - the chances of automatic promotion seem slim so let’s look forward to the playoffs.
Brilliant Selwyn. That’s a masterly scene-setter, very entertaining and at the same time a terrific summing up our situation.
Personally I’m desperate for us to get back in the Prem. Of course we would need to invest heavily in quality all over the pitch in the summer, and yes, life would undoubtedly be a struggle and we would lose many more games than we’d win. Surviving could be possible, but further consolidation of our Prem status over succeeding years far from easy. Just ask Wolves. But once again we’d be seeing the very best teams and players at The Riverside. We’d be on MotD every week. We’d benefit from parachute payments which should make a return to the Champo that much easier. And then we have the examples of the sides that have made it and thrived - Fulham, Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Forest and whisper it, Leeds and Sunland. We’re a bigger club than the first 3 of those. So yes, bring it on!
Wednesday have nothing to lose tomorrow night. There’s not really much point in them parking the bus, is there? On the other hand, I suppose they might want to reward their amazing supporters - of whom there will be many present tomorrow, I guess - with something of a performance, and a draw would be seen as a massive fillip for them. Many of their squad will be playing for their futures, no doubt. All that said, Boro must surely have the quality to break them down and score goals, especially as we’ll be boosted by our Ipswich performance and riled up by the ridiculous penalty decision. I’m expecting Strelec and Conway to be rejuvenated, too. Anything other than a good Boro win would be extremely disappointing, obviously.