BORO Home v Sheffield Wednesday
Riverside
7.45pm, Wednesday March 22 (4.45am, Thursday March 23, Sydney)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My last few intros have all been for midweek matches that were close on the back of a weekend game. In those cases, I usually decided to write a pre-intro piece to give me a chance to get going earlier and then updated it after the earlier match. This time, with everybody writing their thoughts about where we stand, the blog was full of comments which more than covered the set-up for both the Ipswich game and for those coming after, starting of course with Wednesday’s match against Wednesday and rounding out with two more Ws, namely Watford and Wrexham.
Therefore, I decided to wait until the Ipswich game was over. So here we go.
Firstly, I can confirm that we have officially fallen victim to one of the top entries in this year’s Softest Penalty of the Year competition. That means that we can look at the table and draw the obvious conclusion; - if Ipswich don’t drop at least 4 points from their two away games this coming week, they will be out of sight, and we will be preparing for the playoffs.
Having said that, Ipswich is not our only problem. We could also find ourselves behind Millwall, who have three easy games, or Southampton, who seem able to win every game they play, no matter how well they perform. Southampton do have the small matter of a home game against Ipswich which will be fun to watch. I must admit that, after Ipswich stole our win, I will be rooting for Southampton.
It always makes me laugh when people use that verb. Here in Australia, it has a completely different meaning to the American idiom where it signifies strong support for a team. You can all look it up for yourselves but, suffice to say that you can guarantee a good smile down here by saying that you will be rooting for your team.
But I digress…. Let’s look at a few questions that are slightly more pertinent to where MFC stands as a team and where we stand as followers.
Q1. Do we have a chance of still making the automatic promotion slot?
Mathematically, the answer is yes but I would put it at around 5%, maybe 10%. With three games to play, we can get to a maximum of 82 points. Leaving aside goal difference for the moment, our close rivals need the following to get to 83.
Ipswich (76) need 7 points from four games. They have three away games against Charlton, WBA and Southampton. Then they have an easy ending to the season at home to QPR. Charlton and WBA are on the verge of the relegation battle and could do with a point or two to be safe. Ipswich could draw/lose any of the three away games but one must expect them to beat Charlton. The other two games are more speculative. We need them to lose six points which could come from WBA and Southampton. However, that could make Southampton’s task easier.
Millwall (76) need 7 points from three games against beach-dwellers Stoke and then Leicester and Oxford. Leicester is in free-fall and could be setting a record for the swiftest ever fall from Premier League winners to Tier 3 (10 years) or FA Cup winners to Tier 3 (about 5 years). Oxford are in trouble but could still be battling. There is a small chance of Millwall tripping up.
Southampton (75) need 8 points from three games. 8 is an impossible number from three games and so they have to get 9. They have easy games against Bristol City and Preston. That leaves their home game with Ipswich. If they win, that will probably get them the 9 points and knock us out of automatic.
So, if anyone wants to track how this is going, the first stop is Tuesday and Wednesday. Assuming that we beat Sheffield Wednesday, nothing changes even if the other three teams all win. If any of them drop points that would be an unexpected bonus.
Q2. Do we have a chance of missing out on the play-offs?
Mathematically, the answer is yes. However, I don’t want to even think about it. Why, you may ask. After our performance against Ipswich, we should have no problem in getting the 4 points or, with goal difference taken in, more likely 3 points, that we need, and my personal sanity doesn’t need me worrying about any other outcome.
Q3. How do I feel about the season.
It has been one of the most enjoyable seasons that I can remember. Boro have, by and large, played a style of football that is adventurous, entertaining and successful. Even better, we have done this without players in key positions who would be better adapted to fit in with the coach’s systems. Even better, we have a head coach and management team who have an exciting, positive way to play and who seem to be decent people. I can live with us not getting promoted this year if we can look forward to a season next year that is even better than this one.
Q4. Do I think that we could get promotion via the play-offs?
Let’s assume that we end up in 5th or 6th. Based on the way that we have played against good teams, I am reasonably positive that we could do well against Ipswich or Southampton. Hull or Wrexham will be sixth and so are unlikely to figure unless they pull of an even bigger shock. Based on the first half against Millwall, we would be OK but I still have nightmares about the way they bullied us in the second half. However, I am positive that we are in better shape than people think and I look forward to Hackney, McGree, Jones and Bangura being available to reinforce the squad.
To finish, looking round the other divisions, it certainly looks like a year of change. Spurs or West Ham could be relegated. Leicester almost certainly will be relegated to League 1. Lincoln have dominated League 1 and will be storming into the Championship. Will they lose their manager? Sadly, poor old Rotherham have continued their yo-yo existence but this time in the wrong direction and have fallen into League 2 and will be replaced by Bromley. There are a lot of other things still to be sorted out before we get to the thud and blunder of the play-offs.
The other interesting question is to watch what KH does to both rest players and get them up to speed for the playoffs. If we beat Sheffield Wednesday, there must be a temptation to give people a rest with maybe 45 minute run-outs in the last two games. The biggest question is Hackney who seems to be one of the very few midfielders in the Middlesbrough set-up or even the whole division who can carry the ball smoothly past opponents so that everything opens up in front of him. Aidan Morris has been doing an extraordinary job pretending to be two players at once, but he must be desperate for his partner in crime to come back. As a final question to the group; - is Morris the best acquisition of the last few years? There must be a case to argue that he is.
Anyway, as for me, I’m surprisingly happy about the state of things and looking forward to some fun.
Best to all
UTB
A great opner there, Selwynoz. I totally share your opinion. It has been a great season and it will be fun to watch where we end uo in May. All is still possible even it looks like playoffs.
So next it will be Wednesday on Wednesday. A must win game again. Hopefully we get a win we deserve. Finally.
Up the Boro!
Thanks Selwyn for your excellent, informative and thought provoking opener; a most enjoyable read.
As has been said before, much is still possible but also unlikely, whilst also probable but also improbable; in the end what will be will be.
I agree it has been a most enjoyable season when compared to many of the last decade, I just hope that at the end it doesn’t turn out to be a missed opportunity that is regretted further down the line.
Tomorrow night is likely to set the tone as to what to expect for the remainder of the campaign and fingers crossed it is a positive one and that we can beat the low block if it is employed. 😎
It's always a pleasure to read a well-written analytical piece by someone who is far brighter than your average journalist, and who is able to do their job in far greater depth and with much more acuity and insight than they generally possess. So thanks, Selwyn, as ever, for summing up precisely where we stand for the final run-in, and giving us an opener of the highest quality.
A great contribution to a fantastic blog, and I agree with your comment on how enjoyable this season has been.
Can we console ourselves if we don't make promotion this season with the high probability that we would get slaughtered most weeks in the Premier League, but would serious contenders next season in the Championship? Which of those two outcomes would we actually prefer?
Selwynoz
That really sums the situation up nicely. Possibles, probables and maybes all thrown in and Boro have let it slip through their fingers, like a few other members I'd prefer to have a similar season to this one in the Championship rather than an ongoing humiliation in the Premiership most weeks.
For me the recruitment for 26/27 will be really interesting and maybe we'll see a slightly different policy? Politics allowing of course. So an interesting end to the season and the times ahead are going to be equally interesting.
OFB, I hope you are recovering, take care and get well.
ATB everyone.
UTB,
John
That starter is just what we needed. Great work, Selwyn and a fantastic summary of what’s to come.
A win tomorrow and I think we can relax a little - the chances of automatic promotion seem slim so let’s look forward to the playoffs.
Brilliant Selwyn. That’s a masterly scene-setter, very entertaining and at the same time a terrific summing up our situation.
Personally I’m desperate for us to get back in the Prem. Of course we would need to invest heavily in quality all over the pitch in the summer, and yes, life would undoubtedly be a struggle and we would lose many more games than we’d win. Surviving could be possible, but further consolidation of our Prem status over succeeding years far from easy. Just ask Wolves. But once again we’d be seeing the very best teams and players at The Riverside. We’d be on MotD every week. We’d benefit from parachute payments which should make a return to the Champo that much easier. And then we have the examples of the sides that have made it and thrived - Fulham, Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Forest and whisper it, Leeds and Sunland. We’re a bigger club than the first 3 of those. So yes, bring it on!
Wednesday have nothing to lose tomorrow night. There’s not really much point in them parking the bus, is there? On the other hand, I suppose they might want to reward their amazing supporters - of whom there will be many present tomorrow, I guess - with something of a performance, and a draw would be seen as a massive fillip for them. Many of their squad will be playing for their futures, no doubt. All that said, Boro must surely have the quality to break them down and score goals, especially as we’ll be boosted by our Ipswich performance and riled up by the ridiculous penalty decision. I’m expecting Strelec and Conway to be rejuvenated, too. Anything other than a good Boro win would be extremely disappointing, obviously.
@clive-hurren As you know I’m a sceptic about the benefits of promotion but I’m genuinely interested in your thoughts that we’re a bigger club than those mentioned. How are you defining “bigger”?
As for being on MOTD every week, I think we’ve had plenty of coverage on Sky this season plus I’ve been able to watch almost every game this year.
Terrific opener Selwynoz, many thanks. I agree I have enjoyed this season more than many in the past, since taking over KH and his squad have done a brilliant job. True there have been “bumps” in the road but overall it has been the best football for a long time. Hopefully, as Kim has said on a few occasions, his second season is usually better and let’s hope he gets the right “tools” to work with.
Yes, automatic is still slightly possible, but I am not in fear of the playoffs and another season in the championship will not be that bad, we can further build the squad to be able to survive in the Premiership, plus with a second season under their belts we could see huge developments in some of our current squad, Strelec, Malander, Brynn, Munro, Jones, Castledine, McCabe, Sene, Hansen, Sarmiento to name but a few.
Tomorrow night or Saturday could extinguish any flickering hopes of automatic but I am confident of making the playoffs, then who knows (return from injuries could play a big part).
Come on BORO.
Great Headliner Selwynoz, with all the permutations, given there may be a few twists and turns.
The autos have gone and we need, as I said previously, some confidence boosting victories alongside some returning players.
Unfortunately it looks as though Jones will not play again this season. Hackney looks to be only so so for Wrexham and won't be quite match fit. Castledine is even further back from being able to start a game if he does get fit to play. Who can tell with McGree.
So it could just be the squad we have now, a few really could do with some R&R
MESSAGE FOR WERDER.
I am having trouble uploading my preview for the Watford game on here. So I have sent an email to diasboro with an attachment. I wrote the preview in Google Documents, saved into Google Drive.
I cannot attach it here unfortunately. Apologies. Pedro. ☹
Selwynoz - a great starter and really appreciated the analysis of where we are at and how we are reliant on the other teams.
I agree that the play offs beckon and providing we can maintain some momentum and come up with a way to get round the back of the parked bus, then we won’t be disgraced as we were against Villa back in the past!
I am also of the opinion that another season in the Championship won’t be the end of the world and hopefully will allow KH to have an influence on who recruit with a view to securing promotion. I really don’t feel we are ready right now and it could be a unmitigated disaster in the EPL right now with only the occasional high point. Would be delighted to be wrong though.
I am heading up for the match tomorrow in the perhaps vein hope that I can see a repeat of the Eightsome Reelers seen back on 20 April 1974, a game that I was present for despite living away!
Really don’t expect 8 goals and a victory will suffice although given our results against lower teams, I must admit to some concern - Wednesday have only won one game all season and I am hoping that typical Boro is not evident.
I won’t be able to post tomorrow since I will be spending the day invigilating exams before setting off up the motorway so my forecast is for Boro to clip the wings of the Owls by a margin of 2 goals.
I looked up “rooting” in my Australian to English dictionary! Good job I never used the word on my recent ish trip down under.
Many thanks Selwynoz for your well-thought through preview and thorough analysis of where the promotion stakes stand - hard to see Ipswich losing 2 games if Southampton also have to lose one given they play each other. OK, anything is possible and maybe if they all lose their midweek games and Boro win we can ponder again.
While I would agree it's been an enjoyable season (especially the first two-thirds), it's also been quite a frustrating one to just pick up 12 points during the last 12 games - with so many great opportunities squandered to have sealed that second spot. I can't help feel Boro should've been at least 9 points better off if they hadn't have fluffed their lines.
Still, they have every chance in the play-offs and ideally should try and finish 3rd to have some momentum and possibly avoid Southampton if they fall short of the automatics - i.e. Millwall win their last three games!
MESSAGE FOR WERDER.
I am having trouble uploading my preview for the Watford game on here. So I have sent an email to diasboro with an attachment. I wrote the preview in Google Documents, saved into Google Drive.
I cannot attach it here unfortunately. Apologies. Pedro. ☹
I've emailed a reply
From the Beeb's live text commentary on the Stoke vs Millwall match:
Stoke 0-1 Millwall
WHAT A MISS - how has Josh Coburn not scored?
Moments after scoring, Camiel Neghli gets to the byline and pulls the ball back to Coburn, eight yards out, goal gaping - but somehow blazes over left-footed.
It wasn't even close. Should have been 2-0, easily.
From the Beeb's live text commentary on the Stoke vs Millwall match:
Stoke 0-1 Millwall
WHAT A MISS - how has Josh Coburn not scored?
Moments after scoring, Camiel Neghli gets to the byline and pulls the ball back to Coburn, eight yards out, goal gaping - but somehow blazes over left-footed.
It wasn't even close. Should have been 2-0, easily.
But he subsequently redeems himself:
GOAL: Stoke 1-3 Millwall
Josh Coburn (69 mins)
Calamity at the back for Stoke City - and Josh Coburn is the beneficiary! What a dreadful goal to give away. It's a lesson that Raphael Otegbayo must learn from on his full-home debut. His ball is intercepted at the back and Camiel Neghli plays in Coburn one-on-one. His strike is deflected by the recovering Ashley Phillips, but flies over Gavin Bazunu, who had gone down and hits the back of the net.
Millwall restore their two-goal lead!
Thanks Selwynoz for a thoroughly level headed and realistic appraisal of where we stand. As everyone has sais, what a grwat season it has been, but it is still not over. Perhaps we just might have hit our stride at the right time. Who knows. They do say the bestcway to get promoted is winning rhat lottery at Wembley. Lwt us all remain hopeful.
Looking at the table just now, we could end up playing Wrexham back to back to back ! I am alao beginning to think it will be Millwall finishing second. If not us, then I would like to see that rather than Ipswich or Soton.
Some goals against Wednesday on Wednesday would go down well.
Ans Pedro. Thanks for preparing the Watford header.
Terrific opener. Selwynoz. Thank you for that.
After tonight’s results - wins for Millwall and Wrexham and a draw for Southampton - our margin for error has diminished further. And our playoff place is not yet secure. A win tomorrow is paramount.
A WIN WILL DO IT
So, all Boro have to do to guarantee a top 6 finish is to win tomorrow.
Then, whatever Wrexham or Hull do in their last 2 games can’t stop Boro as if they both win their last 2 games ( and Boro lose v Watford and Wrexham) then Boro finish in the top 6 on goal difference.
That doesn’t sound a good route to the play offs so let’s hope Boro play well tomorrow, secure the win and send the fans home happy and then produce good performances in the last 2 games.
Team selection is not easy balancing the need to get some players back on the pitch with consequential risks, or giving them more time to be fully fit but short of recent games. Desirably most can play some part of the last game and then be ok for the playoffs. My biggest hope is Hackney will be ok to return whether at Wrexham or the playoffs.
I am obviously getting ahead of myself and so back to tomorrow and hopefully a win.
Philip of Huddersfield
👍🫢👍🫢
After tonight’s results - wins for Millwall and Wrexham and a draw for Southampton - our margin for error has diminished further. And our playoff place is not yet secure. A win tomorrow is paramount.
Thanks for all the kind comments but so much for my careful analysis as Southampton draw at home to Bristol City. Who picked that one. A win tonight would certainly calm the nerves. We could even overtake Southampton.
UTB
Friends of the DiasBoro, how are we today?
Thank you Selwyn for that excellent opener, and everyone for your insights. Specifically this one from KP...
"I agree it has been a most enjoyable season when compared to many of the last decade, I just hope that at the end it doesn’t turn out to be a missed opportunity that is regretted further down the line."
That just sums it up. Relatively, our progress this season has been superb. In the moment, there's the feeling of could have or should have been more.
I can't help but reflect on how genuinely fine the margins have been post-Coventry and either side of the seven-goal burst at Birmingham and at QPR. 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 2-2, 0-1, 2-2... with four (bolded) instances where the game was turned on its head or a win was denied by either an easily avoidable mistake, a missed chance, a poor refereeing decision or maybe all three. If only George Edmundson hadn't misjudged that header, if only Sol Brynn hadn't let Josh Coburn's shot slip under him, if only our defence had been alert to Conor Chaplin or his goal had been ruled offside, if only Adilson Malanda had kept his hands down or the referee had recognised that George Hirst made a meal of it...
Ifs and ands, pots and pans. We are where we are, and the effect from the results goes beyond Boro themselves. I do wonder, for example, if Portsmouth would have been so fired up to beat Ipswich if they hadn't gotten that late, late confidence boost against us.
Positives, though? There are plenty. Of course there are. I was, and maybe I've said this before, maybe I haven't, delighted for Tommy Conway and David Strelec when they scored against Ipswich and would have been equally delighted had one of Jeremy Sarmiento's chances ended up in the net. They could be hitting form just when we need them most.
I also feel parallels can be drawn to our promotion heroes from the past, at least in midfield. Hayden Hackney reads as a younger equivalent of an Andy Townsend or a Grant Leadbitter, Aidan Morris the Robbie Mustoe or the Adam Clayton, Riley McGree the Craig Hignett, Alan Browne the Graham Kavanagh or the Neil Maddison... and, in my view, Browne offers more than Adam Forshaw did. Forshaw now reads to me as a sort of upgrade on Josh McEachran in that no one was doubting his technical gifts, which may have been better than those of any other midfielder at the club at the time - and he did net an absolutely vital goal - but there seemed to be less grit there, and with him you had a disruption of the dependable Leadbitter-Clayton axis that also worked so well for us in 1997-98 (Mustoe-Townsend) and Ireland in 1992-94 (Roy Keane and Townsend).
This, of course, got me thinking of the pros and cons of the "dual shield" which Morris and Browne seemed to have put in place against Ipswich. To me, it worked, and our last two promotion winning teams have had "dual shields" right at the heart of them (1997-98, 2015-16), but I do think that it's also reasonable to make the point that however valid the shield is as a tactic for certain games, if a team makes it the default setting then there is the risk of stunting creativity or running out of ideas. But hey, every "double act" has its pros and cons - two forwards on the pitch can enhance your attacking options but there is also the danger of one of the forwards becoming a passenger if the team is under pressure.
Anyway... Regarding tonight. If Morgan Whittaker doesn't make it I would encourage Kim Hellberg to make good use of Sarmiento in the Whittaker role. In that, whether he misses a chance or not will matter less if his pace, skill and bravery takes defenders with him and creates space for others. Lack of end product need not be relevant if the player can be both unpredictable and a handful in other ways - something we perhaps ought to have considered more when we had Adama Traore.
Are our last three opponents an omen for what is to come; Wednesday, Watford and Wrexham = WWW= 9 points or is it me just dreaming 🤔😎
Are our last three opponents an omen for what is to come; Wednesday, Watford and Wrexham = WWW= 9 points or is it me just dreaming 🤔😎
KP I have some magic beans you might be interested in purchasing
In games against the bottom four teams we have so far dropped 12 points
Time for that to change then. A comfortable win tonight would do everyone the world of good.
Wednesday have nothing left to lose - there’s little point in them parking the bus at this stage in the season, so they might as well go for a win, which should suit us better.
In games against the bottom four teams we have so far dropped 12 points
Time for that to change then. A comfortable win tonight would do everyone the world of good.
Wednesday have nothing left to lose - there’s little point in them parking the bus at this stage in the season, so they might as well go for a win, which should suit us better.
Fingers and everything crossed that you are right. As well as a win we could do with improving our goal difference. 😎
Thank you so much for the Match Preview, @selwynoz. It has come to that time of the season where much of what can be said has already been said. And the games come so quick and fast that it is difficult to write a piece because there is a good chance much of it will become out of date before the article can be read. You have managed those challenges very well, though I'm pleased Southampton dropped two points last night. Thanks again!
I might have feared for the game against Sheffield Wednesday had it not been for the very much improved performance (even if a draw) at Ipswich. I now think Boro will win tonight. That should settle the nerves. A draw at then high-flying Ipswich followed by a home win against The Owls (I hope that doesn't jinx it) should set Boro up nicely for the last two games (home to Watford then away at Wrexham).
Boro desperately needs to enter the Play-Offs, assuming automatic promotion now to be extremely unlikely, in a decent vein of form. A win tonight makes that run of form rather more likely than it seemed a week ago. If you are in the Play-Offs in decent form, you have a chance. Promotion could still be achieved despite all that has happened recently. We can worry about next season after this one has ended...
It HAS been an interesting season. A great beginning to the season under a new coach then an apparent start-of-a-stall under RE. The shock of his leaving shortly after his stressing commitment and "we are in this together like a family". Another new manager appointed from what our American cousins might say was" left-field". Some games, even runs of games, under our new manager when results and performances would have been regarded as Dream World last summer. A ride to the Top of the Table when automatic promotion seemed inevitable and the league title very much on the cards. Then a coming down to earth with a bang at the game in Coventry, whose aftershocks seem to have been affecting the team ever since. Buying a result in recent weeks appeared beyond Boro's pockets.
Hopefully that is now behind Boro and a win tonight might cement that feeling. Then it will be all to play for as the season comes to its climax. At times this season the team has played football of the highest quality and scored goals in quantity, to drive the team to the top. And then followed that up with frustrating possession-heavy but goal-light performances that saw confidence visibly drain from the players (or those still fit to play) and that caused despair to infect the supporters. It has been the proverbial roller-coaster. Maybe Boro is on the "up" again.
Let's hope Boro can put those lingering doubts to the sword tonight. An early goal followed by a few others will make everyone connected with Boro feel so much better.
@forever-dormo The biggest issue for me though is the quality or “lack of quality” on the bench.
All teams suffer injuries and we are not helped by the Hellberg system of continual pressing and ball retention. But we have also had a number of “in training” injuries (knocks) that seem to go on forever, when a broken leg heals quicker. I assume the required training intensity is also high.
However putting all of that to one side, the failure of finding decent back up players to suit Hellbergball has probably been the biggest downfall of the wheels coming off the track.
Lets hope KH and the maintenance team can get at least a couple of wheels back on the track tonight.
WERDER. I have sent an updated document to you (by email) to look at. I hope it helps.
Thanks for the help. P