After Boro’s humbling at The Hawthorns, Michael Carrick and his men have had a week to reset before taking on Reading at The Riverside - Saturday, kick-off 3pm.
Fair play to The Baggies, theirs was a hard-fought, organised and highly disciplined effort to deny Boro any of our favourite spaces and avenues to goal. Sure, it was an unambitious game plan designed primarily to contain us, and sure, the first goal may well have been offside but credit to them – they stuck steadfast to the tactical plan, took the early chances and saw out the game in a way very few have been able to against Carrick’s Boro.
The blueprint to beat us may be there but, as we saw the previous week against QPR, not many sides will have the defensive discipline to see it through for the full ninety. Can Reading?
The Royals sit 14th in the no-mans land of the Championship table, 10pts behind the playoff places and 13 ahead of the relegation spots. Paul Ince’s men had a great start to the campaign, including a 1-0 over Chris Wilder’s Boro back in August, which saw them as high as third heading into October. However, it’s been a steady decline since with them finishing the calendar year in tenth and continuing to slip thereafter.
It’s a classic Championship mixed bag of W2 D1 L3 in their last 6 overall whilst away from home they have managed just a solitary point in their last 6. Prior to a 3-1 win at home to Blackpool last time out, the visitors had just one win in eight with Ince bemoaning the fragility of his squad:
"We've had injures galore it's been so up-and-down" Ince told BBC Radio Berkshire.
"What I want next season, if I'm here, is a squad where everyone can play 38 to 40 games - not two in and two out."
Certainly there has been a lot of chopping and changing in The Royals first XI, which seems to have dampened their output at both ends of the pitch. As an attacking force, they’ve managed just 38 goals from 33 games, a feat bettered by all but four sides outside of the bottom four, whilst defensively their 48 conceded is the division’s fourth worst. There should be more change for Ince this weekend with preferred no. 1 Joe Lumley ineligible against his parent club.
They also seem to struggle through the middle of the park, with an average possession % of 42 and described as a team that favours the long ball and the long shot – pretty low percentage ways to win football matches you’d think.
As we say so often these days then, expect Boro to dominate the ball but the visitors will no doubt look to exploit set-piece situations against us especially with the dangerous Andy Carroll up front.
The presence of Carroll could mean a return for Dael Fry if the threat is deemed worthy of attention. That said, Carrick may feel that if Boro are to open up what is likely to be a packed Reading backline, the passing and occasional forays of Paddy McNair may be of more use. There again, McNair’s nose was last seen somewhere around the back of his head after a nasty elbow from Daryl Dike last Saturday, so who knows if he will even be available.
Carrick may also consider whether Dan Barlaser is worth a start. With Boro struggling to break down QPR at times, it was Barlaser who finally opened the door with his pinpoint ball into Akpom. It was perhaps a little surprising that the midfield schemer wasn’t afforded a chance off the bench to do the same against West Brom last Saturday and he may be given the nod this time around.
Otherwise, there doesn’t seem to be too much clamour for change around The Riverside, even after a disappointing defeat at The Baggies.
Certainly Chuba Akpom will be hoping its more of the same at home at least as he chases Bernie Slaven’s best of 20 league-goals-in-a-season. With Chuba currently on 19, there’s every chance of a record equalling moment for the reborn forward and it would certainly be nice to see it in front of a home crowd.
Boro have bounced back well each time they’ve been defeated under Carrick. I expect us to have to work for it but see no reason why we can’t pick up another three points on Saturday.
Boro 3-1 Reading for me. How about you?
Another brilliant opener, Andy, thank you.
I don’t care how or by how many we win this one. All that matters is we get the 3 points. As you say, we need to beware the Carroll factor - it looks from your post that Reading prefer a long-ball game - obviously looking to hit the big Geordie lump, then. Beware Paul Ince, too. He’ll surely have his team revved up and won’t tolerate slacking. Everything crossed, but I think we should nonetheless have enough to beat them.
Thanks Andy for a great opening post as usual. Packed with a lot of information and also thought provoking.
I expect Barlaser to play on Saturday and I also expect Fry to play as don’t think Paddy will be fit enough to be considered.
Hopefully Middlesbrough 3 will turn up to play and not Middlesbrough Nil !
OFB
Thank you Andy for an excellently crafted article.
I am just feeling a bit wary about this game as you have pointed out that WBA have provided our future opposition teams, for the remainder of the season, with a blue print on how to stifle and beat us.
Not all teams will be as well organised as WBA but Reading proved earlier in the season that they were able to pack their defence, allowed us in excess of 75% of possession and still beat us, with effectively their first attack.
Against WBA I felt we lacked a player similar to Patrick Robert’s, whose ability to run at defenders and dribble in and around tight spaces could have opened up the Baggies defence.
Without such a player in the side (I don’t class IJ as a like for like with Roberts) and if we fail to move the ball quicker, as we did at WBA, and do not run at defenders at pace then we could have similar problems in breaching both Reading’s and future teams defensive set ups.
Based on form to date, this looks on paper a game we should win comfortably save for the caveats above; this is one of the teams amongst a number in the coming weeks which we should put to bed easily if we are to retain our top six aspirations.
Boro 2-0 Reading. 😎
Another great opener, thanks Andy. Another reason Barlaser might replace Howson is that he is sitting on 9 yellow cards and therefore has to avoid a yellow in the next 3 matches and with Saturday’s ref being card happy (average 5 per game) Keith Stroud it might be worth the change.
After last night’s FA cup results and the postponement of Shef Utd v WBA, Blackburn v Burnley, I have checked the championship fixture list and the only midweeks they can fit those fixtures in are the last two weeks of the season, either 24-26 April or 1-3 May, unless of course they get permission to play in the International break 🤔.
Come on BORO.
Another interesting development:
Come on BORO.
Excellent opener from Andy and a new challenge for Carrick.
Ultimately, if we're to be serious about the play-offs we have to win home matches against the likes of Reading. It doesn't mean we will win all such home matches but that's the standard we have to aim for. Not winning at the weekend will have us looking a bit rattled.
It'll be interesting to see if he makes changes. Fry seems likely to be back for McNair but other than that you expect him to stick to his normal 1st 11. However, one thing Ferguson excelled at was changing the team before it looked like it needed it. When the same 11 play together for a while they can sometimes go stale. Players can also start to lose just a little bit of their edge.
For that reason I can see Barlaser coming in for Hackney. I also wonder if we might see Archer on the bench with Forss up front. Some players respond better to being dropped; hard to know with someone like Archer.
That said, I don't expect more than 1-2 changes. I don't see any signs of complacency in the team and we're mostly only playing once per week so we don't need to rotate players to rest them.
However, I have a little feeling that Carrick might look to use his squad a bit more than normal to ensure that he has 15-16 players who are fully match sharp for the run in.
I'm going to plump for a comfortable if not convincing 2-0 win. I think Ince might try and get Reading to fly out of the traps at us and catch us cold but I'm hoping that Carrick has been working on countering that.
I think we started strongly at WBA. We had most of the ball for the first six or seven minutes. But then we had awful two minutes of defending when Dike (8'minutes, 10'minutes) striked twice on counter attacks.
So we need to keep concentration and be prepared for counter attacks. But these things can happen we want to play possesion based footy. And it is wonderful to watch.
Normally, if we go down 1-0, we will score a brace or three goals later in the game. We are usually the better team in the second half and keep our composure and belief that an opening will come.
But as said earlier, WBA defended extreamely well. They parked the bus in their penalty area and were very strong. I don't think we will see so good defendind any more this season.
So on Saturday we need to be back to our normal level. If we keep on having the ball again for 70 % of the time, we will be OK. Never an easy game in the Championship but I hope we will win by 4-1.
At least the aim cannot be nothing but a home win. In Carrick we trust. Up the Boro!
Andy - Thanks for the starter.
I can understand the knock to McNair might mean Fry will return to the starting 11 and I have no problem with that. If Howson is one card away from a suspension and will remain in that position for the next 3 games, as exmil suggests, I would also understand it if Barlaser had a start in his position. I'd be comfortable with that team and it should be good enough to get the 3 points against Reading though, as we all know, no game should be taken as a "given".
I'd love to see the team win 3-0 with Akpom getting that longed-for 20th league goal for the season, but I'd be content with any win. Whether it's 3-1, 2-0, it would be good if the team could help look after my heartrate and bloood pressure by making sure we have a 2 goal cushion in case of "mistakes".
Another great opener, Andy. Let’s hope the Boro are as good on Saturday.
EXMIL CHALLENGE 2023
With just over 24 hours to Friday’s deadline at 1900 hrs, we have the following 11 entries:
lenmasterman
KP in Spain
Powmill Naemore
deleriad
Andy R
exmil
Norfolk and Boro
Forever Dormo
Clive Hurren
Selwynoz
Martin Bellamy
Come on BORO.
We’re always being told that there are no easy games in the Championship. On paper, this looks like a home win but I feel Boro must be wary of Andy Carroll. He may not be as mobile as he once was but he’s still deadly in the air and assuming Fry plays then he’ll know he’s been in a game.
So I hope Boro try to give away as few as possible corners and free kicks capable of being dispatched into the penalty area where Carroll excels.
As always, I’ll be happy with any kind of win.
Philip of Huddersfield
Thanks for the opener Andy. The loss against WBA and the wins by four of the teams chasing us immediately closed up what had looked like a useful gap for us. The Millwall v Luton draw at least prevented either of them getting 2 points closer to us. It looks like McNair will not be available against Reading especially as his damaged nose would be an invitation to Andy Carroll to further rearrange it! Carroll is still capable of causing any defender problems even though Reading are not in good form. I can see that Barlaser for Howson might be a change particularly in a home game but otherwise I assume Carrick will stick to his minimal changes.
Needless to say I am now more worried than a couple of weeks ago. After all we haven't yet won a match this month! No early (or late or middle) goals conceded please.
Not only is Saturday’s match a potential ‘banana skin’ but a draw or a defeat could even put more pressure on Boro next week at the Liberty Stadium. Like Philip I have some foreboding about this match and any win would be fine.
I can sense a very nervy crowd on Saturday, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if Boro don’t win.
Having previously stated that I still believe Boro will enter the Easter programme in third position and have stated that I have no intention of glancing at the league table until all clubs have an equal number of matches remaining which as exMiill has explained might not be possible due to the Blades still being involved in the FA Cup, I nevertheless give Boro next to no chance of gaining automatic promotion this season.
I’m going for a 1-0 win with Chuba Akpom becoming the first player to reach 20 league goals in a season since Bernie Slaven by possibly scoring with the last kick of the match. I’m too old in the tooth to be too concerned if the finish is as tight as my prediction, but will still stay as calm as Michael Carrick whatever the outcome. Even being in this position is a bonus after the start Boro made prior to the arrival of Carrick.
@philip-of-huddersfield. Cut off the supply and the head will die. Simples!
I agree also that “anyone can beat anything in this league” but those that gain promotion win games of this nature, some convincingly. 😎
I just hope that Boro will win...whatever the score.
I just hope that Boro will win...whatever the score.
That just about sums it up :). This season has turned into such a positive experience that it will be a disappointment if we don’t at least make the play-offs. After that, who knows and the team can only get better with a full Carrick off-season and transfer window.
utb
Reading will be without their first-choice goalkeeper Joe Lumley for the game, with the 28-year-old on loan at the Berkshire club from Boro and therefore unable to play in the game against his parent club, as per the terms of the loan agreement.
So we have a "huge" advance now, me thinks! (Or perhaps we should ask him to play 🤣🤣🤣).
Also Reading will be without star man Junior Hoilett for the trip to Middlesbrough, in what is a big injury blow for Paul Ince's side.
Seriously, it will be a tough match as ever. Up the Boro!
Fixtures live on Sky therefore kickoff time changes:
https://www.mfc.co.uk/news/2023/march/03/boro-set-for-double-easter-tv-billing/
Come on BORO.
Hi Exmil,
Here's hoping I've made the deadline and got my forecasts correct. Blackburn
Talking about setting oneself tight deadlines, just got back from a sun downer celebration, and nowhere competes with WA, ever, I'm hoping that the best NZ Sav Blanc hasn't cut too far in to my common sense factors. Here we go.
Burnley (76) WWL (82)
Sheff U (64) LDDLD (67)
Boro (57) WWWW (69)
Blackburn (55) WDWW (65)
Millwall (54) DWWW (64)
Luton (54) WDWL (61)
Norwich (52) DDWW (60)
Watford (50) WDDW (58)
Mackems (49) WDWW (59)
WBA (48) DWWD (56)
Coventry (49) DWDD (54)
Cheers,
PPIP
Boro has two Easter games which are now to be shown on Sky Sports and therefore the times have been altered:
Boro v Burnley will now be an 8pm kick off
Bristol City v Boro will now be a 5.30pm kick off.
Let's hope that doesn't inconvenience too many (not that THAT would worry Sky).
Jarkko and out Australian contingent might be pleased to have access via TV though.
@peasepudinperth You seem to be missing a fixture for Burnley and WBA 🤔
Hi Exmil,
Here's hoping I've made the deadline and got my forecasts correct. Blackburn
Talking about setting oneself tight deadlines, just got back from a sun downer celebration, and nowhere competes with WA, ever, I'm hoping that the best NZ Sav Blanc hasn't cut too far in to my common sense factors. Here we go.
Burnley (76) WWL (82)
Sheff U (64) LDDLD (67)
Boro (57) WWWW (69)
Blackburn (55) WDWW (65)
Millwall (54) DWWW (64)
Luton (54) WDWL (61)
Norwich (52) DDWW (60)
Watford (50) WDDW (58)
Mackems (49) WDWW (59)
WBA (48) DWWD (56)
Coventry (49) DWDD (54)
Cheers,
PPIP
EXMIL CHALLENGE 2023 - Rearranged fixture - Part 1
The following fixtures have been rearranged for 25 April:
Shef Utd v WBA
Blackburn v Burnley
I have subtracted the relevant points based on everyone’s predictions from each team total in Part 1, the rearranged fixtures will appear in Part 3.
Come on BORO.
Boro has two Easter games which are now to be shown on Sky Sports and therefore the times have been altered:
Boro v Burnley will now be an 8pm kick off
Bristol City v Boro will now be a 5.30pm kick off.
Let's hope that doesn't inconvenience too many (not that THAT would worry Sky).
Jarkko and out Australian contingent might be pleased to have access via TV though.
I have the MFC digital season pass. If the games are on TV here it means that, if necessary, I can record them and watch at a slightly more reasonable hour. At the moment the 3.00pm games are available at 2.00am which is a little hard going so I’m missing out on seeing them. As the hours change, things move and the 3.00pm ends up at midnight here which is manageable. Thus, dependent on exactly when the hours shift, the Bristol City game will start at 2.30am, 3.30am or 4.30 am so being able to record it will be a benefit.
UTB
I should remind people that Australia is huge. It takes four hours or so to fly across (London to Moscow?) and has a three hour time difference from east to west. Thus @peasepudinperth probably has quite a different perspective from me in Sydney.
Anyway, I’m hoping to wake up to good news tomorrow.
utb
And the Baggies go down 0-2 away to Hull in this evening's match...
Hi Exmil,
A stupid and basic mistake, they should read;
Burnley (76) WWWL 85)
WBA (48) DWWDD (57)
I hope that's put everything right.
PPIP
Morning Selwyn,
Or should I say good afternoon where you are. As an example of what Selwyn was trying to outline earlier, I'm sat having my second morning cuppa and getting revved up for the day (revved up ay my age, bloody idiot!) while he's already done the weekend shopping and is preparing to set fire to the afternoon sacrifice on the altar of the charcoal gods, the BBQ. If you prefer your steaks caramelised then you'll eat well down under, if not just stick to the cold meats and salads. The myth of the Australian BBQ feast is exactly that, a BBQ is simply an excuse for a gathering and to get rat ar**d around the pool, even Gordon Ramsey couldn't cook me a better steak after half a dozen coldies and quite a few swigs from the Chateau de Cardboard vintage box.
However Selwyn, I have to take issue with your four hour flight from east to west, or west to east dependant on which direction you're flying. If my pilot tried landing the plane after only four hours flying time, then we'd be landing in the bush somewhere 90 minutes shy of Sydney and we'd be in for a very bumpy landing, this place is vast. Currently in Perth we're three hours behind Sydney, but as the people in the east like to think also 25 years behind civilisation when it comes to the calendar, they may have a point there, but that's the disadvantage of living in the most isolated capital city in the world.
Weekend game times at 15:00 kick off are a manageable 23:00 viewing time, providing that is, there hasn't been an afternoon sacrifice to the charcoal gods, if there has then it really doesn't matter what time anyone kicks off you're simply just going to miss it, or live through it and forget both the score and the game itself, and then wake up on the settee the next day sometime with a mouth that feels as though a seagull's nested in there. As for evening kick offs, well, as has already been mentioned just hit the tape function, then when you get up don't look at any sports pages or listen to any radio, simply lock yourself in the telly room and watch it and hope for a happy outcome.
Life in the colonies can be tough at times, what with all this heat and flies, the BBQ's, the golden beaches, the laid back lifestyle lounging around in shorts and t-shirts all day, and memories of snow and ice being kindled each time you open the fridge door for a beer, but as was highlighted last night as me and my better half went for a F&C at the supposedly best chippy in Perth's northern suburbs, we crave a trip to the Magpie Cafe in Whitby for a proper one. Don't even go there with Marks & Spencers!
PPIP
G’day peasepud
Flight time between Sydney and Perth has always been a bit weird.
The airlines are indeed quoting five hours plus a bit for the Sydney to Perth trip so you’re quite right that after four hours you’d still be hitting the bush but flying from Perth to Sydney is being quoted as four hours to four and a quarter. This was what I’d remembered from my last trip.
Apparently it’s something to do with the jet stream and the winds at 30,000 feet. Maybe one of our scientific bloggers can confirm.
Apart from that, you’re dead right about the Aussie barbie and, as for the view from the eastern states, I’ve always found Perth to be super-relaxed and a great place. It was a bit odd during Covid when the government seemed to be chasing independence.
I also admit to being a bit envious about your timing. For a lot of the season, you have the 3.00 pm kick-off at a very civilised evening time and, at the moment, as you say it’s still a manageable 11.00pm.
utb