Swansea v Boro
Saturday 11/3/23 k.o. 3:00 pm
Swansea.com Stadium
Before turning to previewing the game on Saturday, it’s worth noting the events which have happened over the past few days to clarify the position Boro are currently in.
READING suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to high-flying Sheffield United on Tuesday evening. Despite a good first half showing, the Royals fell behind on the hour mark after Ollie McBurnie teed up Iliman Ndiaye for his 11th goal of the season.The Senegalese’s strike proved the difference between the sides as the Blades secured an important three points in their quest for automatic promotion. Reading who needed a swift response after their hammering by Boro at the Riverside on Saturday, more than held their own throughout a goalless first-half. But it was the Blades who drew first blood when Illiman Ndiaye met Oli McBurnie’s cut back to put them ahead after an hour.
Despite coming close, Reading were unable to provide a response and were dealt just their fourth home defeat of the campaign. The defeat leaves them in 15th on 44 points from 35 games with a six point deduction set to be announced in the coming days.
Victory for Sheffield United however, now leaves Paul Heckingbottom's men on 67 points, some 10 points behind runaway leaders Burnley on 77 and seven above third-placed Boro who have 60 points.
Chris Morgan believes that a seven point gap, plus a change in mindset, could be massive for both Sheffield United and Boro. He said on radio last night “I don’t want this to haunt me but I think seven points at this stage of the season is huge. Yes, Middlesbrough are playing well. They’re a good team and since Michael Carrick’s gone in he has turned them around,But I think, realistically, they’ve got to win three more games than us. And yeah, there’s 11 left and people might be sat listening, well it’s still doable. But teams at this stage of the season, I think it’s massive. We’ve got another massive game against Luton, all eyes will be on it, you talk about pressure.”
Morgan was captain of the squad that got promoted to the Premier League under Neil Warnock back in 2006. And he added that he believes Middlesbrough’s players will have been hoping for a much different outcome last night.
“I think the game tonight, if you look. Middlesbrough will be thinking if Sheffield United get beat at Reading tonight it’s four points. They’ll have been thinking ‘if they get beat at Reading then they’ve got Luton that’s tough, if they slip up there and we win we’re only a point behind’. And all of sudden you’re getting excited. But then tonight you’re getting in bed thinking ‘we’re seven points behind’. That’s a massive dent to Middlesbrough tonight.”
The pack closely following behind the Boro include: Blackburn on 58, Luton Town on 57, Norwich on 55 and in seventh place Millwall on 54.
All teams have now played 35 matches and I expect that there will be many twists and turns before the end of the season is finished.
In a surprising turn of events, our former manager Chris Wilder has been appointed manager of Watford on a temporary basis until the end of the season. The 55-year-old had been without a job since early October, following his sacking from Boro. Although he appeared to be building a squad capable of winning promotion during the summer, the reality was that Boro were struggling down at the bottom end of the division before his sacking.
Falling well below both Steve Gibson’s and supporters expectations during the latter stages of his time at the Riverside, his stock may have been lower than it was when he left Sheffield United back in 2021, but he was linked with quite a few jobs before jumping back into management with the Hornets this week. Hopefully our paths will not cross during the playoffs as he will be out for revenge!
After considering all the permutations It looks probable that Boro will make the playoffs, but doubtful that we will make automatic promotion. In my opinion the top two places have gone and hopefully the young Boro players will generate enthusiasm and sufficient top class performances to secure a third place position. However, with plenty of points still to play for and the Blades’ FA Cup distraction, Carrick and the squad will not yet have given up hope.
The Boro team for Saturday would (barring injuries) seem to pick itself and will probably be the same team that started the game last Saturday against Reading.
The inspired loan signings of Aaron Ramsey, Cameron Archer and Ryan Giles have certainly blended well into the mix of experienced permanent players within the Boro squad and there seems to be a genuine team spirit and togetherness that was missing whilst Wilder was the manager.
Much has been said of the positional change of Akpom within his role in the team but credit must also be given to the manager and coaching staff for putting an arm around him and making him feel such an important member of the squad.
Turning to our opponents on Saturday, the Swans impressed before the league campaign was halted for the World Cup in November, with Martin's men reaching as high as fourth place in the Championship at one stage following a run of seven wins from nine games.
It is a different story these days as they have plummeted down the standings.Swansea are currently 17th before playing against in-form Boro, Millwall and Bristol City.
So far the previous five matches has seen the Swans win ineffectively against Blackpool 2-1, lose to Blackburn Rovers away 1-0 in traditional last minute or so fashion, lose at home to Stoke City 3-1, draw with Rotherham United at home 1-1 and then of course lose at Luton Town 1-0 on Saturday. Yes fine margins in a few of those matches but really not one of those games would give even the most positive of fan cause for optimism. That’s five games, one win, one draw and three losses. The Swans have scored four goals and conceded seven. They have four points from a possible fifteen. No longer are home games even considered a given. Losing at home 4-3 to Birmingham City, the following week losing 3-0 at Sheffield United. That’s seven games, one win, one draw and five losses. The Swans have scored seven in those seven games and conceded fourteen goals.
That’s relegation form when taken in isolation. Of course the chances of that are slim, but not impossible.
There was plenty to dissect from their defeat on Saturday, including a chaotic touchline brawl involving both dugouts that ultimately saw Russell Martin sent off. Saturday was a strange game in some ways. Another defeat, another Joe Allen injury, and their manager sent off from the touchlines.
On the face of it, days don't get much worse.
But the curious thing was, Swansea did actually play quite well at times, particularly in the second half. After struggling to lay a glove on the hosts for nearly the entire first 45 minutes, Swansea were more assured in possession after the break. Those in midfield were more confident on the ball, and the attacking players were far better at getting themselves into good positions. Those will likely be clung to as positives by Martin, but the paradox here is that the more Swansea tried to get on the front foot, the more it highlighted the lack of real quality in certain key areas.
Too often the final ball was poor. Too often moves broke down due to a lapse in concentration or a lack of composure. Joel Piroe worked hard up front, but was often chasing shadows for much of the game, frequently feeding off scraps.
As a result, Ethan Horvath didn't have an awful lot to do in the Luton Town goal, barring a stop from substitute Morgan Whittaker.
Martin has previously alluded to how much his side have missed the likes of Cyrus Christie and Hannes Wolf this season and the aggression they bring to the final third. The lack of bite was certainly there for all to see at Kenilworth Road. No one can fault the levels of effort. Indeed, even the confidence of this team looks far beyond where it should be after this sort of run. But individual errors and shortcomings are continuing to cost them. The most prominent case in point being Andy Fisher's fumble for the decisive goal.
Martin will likely to continue to take most of the flak, and indeed he has to take responsibility for this poor run. It comes with the territory as a manager. Saturday really demonstrated that some of these players just aren't quite at the levels needed.
One player that the
Boro fans will be interested in seeing how he is doing at Swansea is our former young centre back Nathan Wood. He is highly regarded by their management and coaching team and is expected to have a bright future in the game. Nathan will undoubtedly be “busting a gut” to prove to the Boro that they were wrong to let him leave and to ensure that the Swans have a clean sheet at the end of the game.
So what do you all think the forecast score is going to be?
Is it going to be a win?
Or a draw?
Oh no not getting beaten!
Me?
Me?
I’m supporting Middlesbrough 3 again !
OFB
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Thanks Bob. Good to see that you are back on top form. This is a great opener, and I will hope to further my reputation as an ace tipster, acquired purely on the basis of slavishly following whatever you say.
Having analysed all of the imponderables, I'll go for a convincing 3-1 win
Unless you have a change of heart.
Bob - I agree with lenmasterman: that was an excellent opener. A very enjoyable read. I had just put a short post on the previous thread, about the prospects of Boro's securing the 2nd place spot in the table. I will no doubt come back to this later, but have to go out this afternoon. I could see Swansea 1-3 Boro but a clean sheet and 0-3 or better (if that's not too greedy) would help raise the goal difference which COULD become relevant ...
Superb scene setting for the Swansea game on Saturday OFB and excellent research on Abertawe's current and recent form. Thank you.
A return of Middlesbrough3 you predict. That is a confident forecast.
Of our next three fixtures, this is the one I am most concerned about. As you have indicated in your opening piece, they have only succumbed by the odd goal away to our promotion rivals Luton last time out. In previous games they have shown that they can score goals as well. I expect it to be a difficult match for us and I wouldn't be surprised if Swansea at least held us to draw. I also wouldn't be surprised that Middesbrough do run out victors with a two goal margin. Much will depend on their mental attitude following last weeks romp against Reading. I see no reason for any change to the starting lineup and I also believe that MC will have the entire squad with the right mindset before the team step onto the pitch. All the same, I am a little nervy about this one and just want to whisper that I think we will sneak a win by the odd goal in three: whispering just in case the typical Boro gods are listening and I don't want to tempt their fate.
Much holding of breath here in Perth.
Thanks Bob for a detailed and comprehensive cover of the events over the past week, a very interesting read. Shef Utd’s win over Reading was not a surprise to me, in fact the surprise was the victory was not more emphatic. I had Shef to win that fixture and regain a seven point lead but there are a number of important fixtures for both teams in the remaining eleven match days. Also to take into account their cup run with a big game against another playoff hopeful Blackburn, I hope Shef Utd win that game and have an appearance at Wembley to throw into the mix, which would also mean another postponed match (Huddersfield (A)) and the only viable date is during the week prior to the final round of fixtures on Monday 8 May, in what is a congested fixture list in April for Utd. As well as the physical side (injuries, suspensions etc) there is the mental side to consider, with a semi final at Wembley within sight, then if they lose at Wembley, what effect will that have for their remaining fixtures. I think at the end of March we will have a clearer picture of our chances of finishing in second place, before a busy April where Boro have 7 fixtures in 29 days, Shef Utd have 8 league and 1 (possibly 2) cup matches in the same 29 days. My hope for Shef Utd is they beat Blackburn in the quarter final and get turned over in the semifinal at Wembley.
Come on BORO.
Thanks OFB for a really informative and interesting starter.
Doesn’t matter what the score is on Saturday as long as it produces 3 points for the Boro.
It could be a difficult game as both teams like to retain possession. That assumes that it goes ahead as there is heavy snow in Wales and more forecast for the next few days. I dare say the pitch may be protected but it will depend on what the stadium surroundings are like.
Fingers crossed it goes ahead and we win to keep the pressure on the blades. 😎
@k-p-in-spain "...it will depend on what the stadium surroundings are like..."
The Liberty Stadium is on the banks of the River Tawe and I must say that the surrounding look rather pleasant 😉
@powmillnaemore. Probably looks even nicer under a blanket of snow. 26 degrees today here in San Fulgencio 😉😎
I would like to say that I think sunshine and warmth are badly overrated, but I would be lying 🤫
minus 7 degrees here in Perth this morning when I got up, but we have at least missed out on the snow. In fact it has been a stunningly beautiful and sunny day here... just cold !
@powmillnaemore We had just -24 degrees this morning, but already -9 in day time. I am on a business trip in the middle of Finland in Kuopio. Very sunny though. No extra snow today but about 40 cm of "old" snow and everything working like normal. I had a walk and it was chilly with wind as the çity is beside a frozen lake. People were out skating on it. Up the Boro!
Nice and warm here in Sydney. We hit 30 earlier in the week! Is there any realistic chance of some games being postponed? If so, fixture pressure could really ramp up and become a very important factor.
Personally, every game feels like a potential banana skin but Swansea do have a touch of quality. Starting quickly will be very important as an early goal could bolster them.
I do feel that Sheffield United’s win at Reading was important. Even a draw would have felt like a big move in our favour. Now the odds have to favour them but we do still have a chance.
thanks @ofb for a great intro.
utb
Thanks OFB for a really informative and interesting starter.
Doesn’t matter what the score is on Saturday as long as it produces 3 points for the Boro.
It could be a difficult game as both teams like to retain possession. That assumes that it goes ahead as there is heavy snow in Wales and more forecast for the next few days. I dare say the pitch may be protected but it will depend on what the stadium surroundings are like.
Fingers crossed it goes ahead and we win to keep the pressure on the blades. 😎
Just thought you would be interested in the weather forecast for Swansea especially for Friday and Saturday:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2636432
Come on BORO.
MIDDLESBROUGH defender Anfernee Dijksteel has earned a maiden international call-up to the Suriname squad.
Having been born in Amsterdam, Dijksteel represented the Netherlands at Under-20 level.
However, he is of Surinamese descent, and has opted to represent the South American nation at senior international level.
OFB
I’m not too fussed on what the Blades might do during the rest of the season as unless Boro win all their remaining matches this season automatic promotion goes out of the window, and some of those matches are difficult enough. However I still assume though that Boro will finish 3rd or 4th which I’m sure most of us would have taken back in August. The only team I would wish to avoid in the playoffs is Norwich - too good for the Championship, but not good enough for the Premier League!
I’m not too fussed on what the Blades might do during the rest of the season as unless Boro win all their remaining matches this season automatic promotion goes out of the window...
@Ken, the lady of great girth has not even started her rehearsals yet, let alone beginning to warm up her vocal chords for her one last great performance to us this season. We don’t even know for certain yet whether her performance is to be delivered for the Boro in March or April, or perhaps not until May 8th (which I think is the most probable). So, unlike you, I am fussed about what the Blades might do during the rest of the season and will remain so fussed at least until the great lady has finished her song.
As the table looks today, Sheffield needs only to lose two of its tricky away fixtures (Burnley and Norwich anyone?) by a single goal, and for Boro to win its co-scheduled fixtures also by a single goal for the Blades’ goal-difference advantage to have been eradicated. It is so close to call at this point in time that you could actually imagine second place ultimately being decided on goal difference, or even on the number of goals scored!
It is still much too early to be certain about how the final promotion/playoff places will look on the evening of Monday May 8th, but I for one am enjoying that sense of nervous anticipation which comes with our team still being in with a not totally unrealistic chance of prevailing.
So, for this weekend it has to be CoB and (hopefully) hats off to the Hatters.
“It is so close to call at this point in time that you could even imagine second place ultimately being decided on goal difference, or even on the number of goals scored!”
At which point my “fear the worst” mindset kicks in and we all know which team is going to be on the wrong side of that outcome! ☹️😎
@k-p-in-spain, it is difficult to suppress the typical Boro in all of us isn't it 😩 .
At least if it does end up being as close as I am suggesting we will know that we will at least still be in with a chance at 3pm against Coventry and even if we do miss out on 2nd place, that will be an achievement to be proud of given where we were when CW was shown to the door.
@powmillnaemore. I hope we are still in with a shout against Coventry as I will be visiting my brother and hoping he can get me a ticket near to where he sits; I imagine that the atmosphere at the Riverside in such a situation will be phenomenal. CoB 😎
Like Michael Carrick I don’t even look at league tables at the moment, but will have a peek after Easter, the speculation is too much of a distraction at the moment as I have enough health problems to concern me for the time being.
Having had a successful get the family back to Middlesbrough event to coincide with the Reading game there is already talk of us repeating the trick on May 8th, regardless of whether we are in contention or not, so I might be able to give you a wave 😉
Thanks for a terrific opener, OFB!
Here’s an interesting scenario. I think I’m correct in stating that Sheffield United have to play at home to Luton and away to the Mackems in their next two games - both of which are likely to be challenging - and that they then miss a Saturday for their FA Cup quarter-final with Blackburn. Let’s imagine that they lose their 2 league games and that Boro win all 3 of ours against Swansea, Stoke and PNE. That would put us two points ahead of them, though having played a game more. That would really pile the pressure on the Blades when they resume league fixtures.
Alternatively, if they pick up just the one point from Luton and Sunland, and we win two and draw one, we would be just one point behind them, which again heaps pressure on them!
All ifs and buts, of course. And Carrick is absolutely right to keep the focus on ourselves and what we do, rather than worrying about other sides. He’s right, too, that maintaining consistency is the key. A couple of losses in the near future turns the tables again, would probably give United the breathing space to relax a bit more and would in all probability mean the end of our automatic promotion hopes.
So crucially we need a win - any win - on Saturday to keep the pressure up. It’s never easy at Swansea, but I think we just might nick this one. 🤞🤞🤞
@clive-hurren. With all the adverse weather around there is also the possibility of a fixture pile up for them if tomorrow’s game does not go ahead. 😎
There seems to be more and more comments that if Sheffield lose 2 or 3 matches and Boro win their matches then Boro could finish second in the Division. What they all fail to say is that Boro must then also match Sheffield’s results to the end of the season.
This is all wishful thinking. The opposite is also true - if Sheffield win their next couple of games and Boro only get say 2 draws then Sheffield are virtually nailed on to finish second. They would be 11 points clear with a better goal difference.
So , the only way to look at possibilities is to do as MC is doing and taking one game at a time.
In the meantime , enjoy the ride and Boro’s performances and the League will take care of itself.
Philip of Huddersfield
Thanks OFB for your very thorough starter.
At present my nervous pessimism means I am looking at the gap between us and seventh place! After being in third place (and even just being in the playoff positions) for some time I have become more worried about us hitting a bad run than I would be if we were fighting to get into the playoffs. Such is my sometimes sad life as a Boro supporter. The happiness from seeing a good win fades too soon.
It looks like we have a similar run in against teams in the top half of the table as Sheffield United though, as is often said, any team in the Championship can beat any other team. I will therefore take one match at a time and hope for a Boro win until we either overtake Sheffield United or have to settle for the playoffs in which case I would have at most three additional games to worry about.
Let's start by hammering Swansea (or maybe winning by one goal) preferably while Sheffield United lose.
As usual some Boro fans are getting ahead of themselves. Still 11 more matches to play for all 24 clubs, that’s almost a quarter of the season remaining. Let’s just take one match at a time. I still think that Boro will finish in 3rd or 4th by the end of the season if I’m still alive to see it.
Just to be clear. I am not getting ahead of myself and cannot argue against the obvious truth that you have to take things one match at a time. All I am doing is putting forward the plausible option that given any one of several possible (and in some cases likely) combination of results, Boro could be in the mix at the end. One could say that some people are getting ahead of themselves confidently predicting that Boro cannot overhaul the Blades because any one of rather more possible results will render it impossible for Boro to finish second: but perhaps they are not looking closely enough at the relative fixture lists. I simply prefer to be optimistic and take great enjoyment in keeping the possibility real for me. After all, it is the dream of winning that feeds every football fan's passion for her/his team.
Let us all agree that at this point, with eleven fixtures remaining, it is still all to play for and it is most certainly not a given that Sheffield United will finish in second place. As soon as the fat lady has serenaded us I will be happy to say otherwise, but even more satisfied if my optimism has been well placed.
Let us all agree that at this point, with eleven fixtures remaining, it is still all to play for and it is most certainly not a given that Sheffield United will finish in second place. As soon as the fat lady has serenaded us I will be happy to say otherwise, but even more satisfied if my optimism has been well placed.
538.com has Sheffield Utd with a 71% chance of coming second this season and that feels about right. Thing about odds like that is that your understanding of them depends on the context. If someone said to you, come and fly with Aeroflot: we have a 71% chance of getting to your destination without crashing, you absolutely wouldn't.
All we can do is to win nearly all our games and hope Sheffield Utd don't. In one week's time, at 5pm on Saturday 18th March, we could actually be in second place.
I hear what Ken says about one game at a time but one of the things about being a fan is dreaming. Let's face it, a lot of the last 5 years has been grinding despair and disappointment. It makes life much nicer to be dreaming about "what if" rather than moaning about "if only."
Speaking of which, apparently, at the beginning of the season, they predicted the following table.
Thanks for the opener Bob, great stuff as ever.
Like others have said, any win is a good one at this stage. We’re at the business end of the season now where the prizes are starting to be handed out and Boro are well in contention to make something happen. These are the finishes that you can really enjoy as a fan where every game matters.
I do extend that to the teams around us too. For the players and management, yes, stay calm and focused on one game at a time. But as fans, especially on a blog here to discuss all things Boro, speculation and looking ahead is a major talking point and a bit of fun. There wouldn’t be a lot to say on the matter otherwise.
So I’m watching what the likes of Sheff Utd, Blackburn, Luton, Norwich, Millwall, West Brom, Sunderland etc are doing keenly as well as Boro’s fortunes and enjoying the ride. Why not?
In the pre-season predictions I think I went for fourth. To have had the calamitous start we had and yet still be ahead of that with an eye on second is fantastic. Do I expect second? No. Do I expect the players to go for it? Absolutely, you just never know and I’ll still be delighted so long as we finish anywhere in the top six, which we will.
Come on Boro.
Here's a true story to share. It might seem to be a little off piste, but I think it is relevant.
A long long time ago my now late mother-in-law went to meet my parents for the very first time. She wanted to talk to them about what was then the upcoming big event. "Have you got your dress yet Wynne?" she asked mum. "What about you Andrew, what will you be wearing?".
Mildly irritated at the excitement and sense of anticipation of the lady, Dad responded "I've seen all my other six children get married and this is just one more." Typical if you knew the man who really didn't do empathy. Nonetheless, my mother-in-law to be quickly replied to him "But Andrew, this will be my only one."
It was an important lesson that we should never try to rain on anyone else's parade, but instead we should celebrate it.