Luton v Boro
Saturday March 15th
KO 3pm at Kenilworth Road
Ninety minutes is a long time in football
Up until 7.45pm last Tuesday Kenilworth Road might as well have been renamed the Abandon Hope Stadium for this fixture. This was clearly going to be a game between two sides that had lost their way in a game of no conceivable interest to anyone outside of the teams’ own fan bases-and indeed to vanishingly few of them.
After last Saturday’s games it had felt like the end of days for both clubs.
Boro’s season seemed already to have run its unsatisfactory course with 10 games still to play and our team 5 points outside of a play-off place and playing without either confidence or conviction.
But the Swansea debacle represented a new low, the players’ lack of fight suggesting to even Carrick’s most loyal supporters that he may have lost the dressing room. The prevailing wisdom around Teesside and on this blog was that anything other than a win against QPR might possibly trigger the departure of both our senior coaches.
If that seemed bad, then spare a thought for Luton fans. A whopping 85% of them already believed their team would be doomed to relegation according to a poll carried out two weeks ago...
It wasn’t difficult to understand why. Second bottom of the Championship and 5 points from safety the Hatters had yet to play Boro, Leeds, Blackburn, Bristol City and Coventry at home with West Brom amongst their remaining away opponents.
In short, of their remaining nine games, six were to be against teams playing for either promotion or the play-offs. It was a tough run-in for a team that had won just one game in the last fifteen.
Head coach Matt Bloomfield must have been pondering the wisdom of leaving Wycombe, currently second to runaway leaders Birmingham in Division One, in order to lead a team that seemed almost certain to be playing in that division themselves next season.
Since replacing Rob Edwards in January, Bloomfield had seen his team continue on a 12 game winless run (D3 L9) which ended only last week with a 1-0 home victory over Portsmouth.
On a recent Luton blog, fans, looking for any signs of improvement, were consoling themselves that they were turning 4-0 defeats earlier in the season into narrower 1-0 defeats more recently. Bloomfield had tightened up his defence, but at the expense of a team that hardly ever looked like scoring.
Then last Saturday, Burnley beat them comfortably. The score? 4-0
Those attacking statistics are damning. Luton have scored the fewest goals in the division by some margin, only 34 in 38 games. That is 23 fewer than the Boro’s attack about which we are so concerned.
Defensively the picture is scarcely any brighter. Luton have shipped more goals (60) than any other team in the division apart from Plymouth and, after last Tuesday, Cardiff.
If you add to this that Luton’s pitch is probably the poorest in the division, and offers no incentive to play decent football, so that Luton remain a stubbornly long-ball side, then you can understand their fans’ frustration.
(As an aside, kudos to everyone on this blog who saw the Hatters’ implosion coming. And that is everyone, with one exception.
I alone tipped Luton to finish in the top six in Powmill’s COTS Challenge. Following the irrefutable logic that teams relegated from the Premier League stand the best chance of going straight back up I find myself, appropriately enough, languishing in the lower reaches of the COTS league.
The Luton Town of this blog.)
To pick up the story, around 9.30 on Tuesday evening everything had changed. Fielding an injury-ravaged Rag, Tag and Bobtail team, Boro played some really good football and thoroughly deserved the 3 points against QPR. It was a win that attested both to Carrick’s excellent coaching and to the personal commitment of the entire team to him. Every player gave his all, typified by the way in which we defended from the front; by Hackney’s monumental challenge for the 50/50 ball, after which he picked himself up and fed Azaz with a superb pass to lay on our first goal; by Jonny Howson’s personal courage and commitment in playing at all, and by Borges’s overall display in such an unfamiliar role. Results elsewhere went our way leaving us a mere 3 points outside of the play-off places.
Meanwhile Luton, having lost 14 of their 15 previous away games, garnering just 1 point out of a possible 45, came from behind to win at Cardiff, helped by one of the strikes of the season from Jonathon Clarke, a breasted-down volley hit from 25 yards. Winning this six pointer has given the Hatters an unlikely lifeline. They are now only two points from safety.
So those 90 minutes last Tuesday have transformed this game from being an inconsequential dead-rubber bore-fest between two under-performing sides into a Renaissance of Hope match which will have season-defining implications not only for the two teams involved but for most other sides in the Championship.
It’s a key game and it should be a cracker. Hopefully an open game, since both teams really need to win. A victory for either side would sustain the improbable belief of both sets of fans, revived this week, that anything is possible. Defeat would all but extinguish any hopes ignited on Tuesday evening. A draw would suit no one. It will be a hard ask for Boro’s fragmented side to reproduce the energy-sapping levels of a mere four days ago, but we will have to play on the front foot to get the result we need.
I’ll go for a 0-2 win
Another excellent preview Len that has a great feel of telling a story with a few plot twists and unexpected turns - the question is whether it will have a happy ending come the final whistle?
If you told me a month ago that we'd be lauding Borges as a central defender and admiring Iling-Junior as our latest left-back, then I'd have asked for more realistic rewrites to the script!
The season is still precariously balanced with each game offering damnation or redemption - though you feel Boro must take advantage of this run of fixtures if they're to remain in the mix. Plus with each good result perhaps the team takes shape and confidence returns.
It's often the case that players get selected due to injuries and suddenly through serendipity a better more balanced team is found - Howson has always looked comfortable in central defence and reads the game well and offers a different dimension and more assurity when bringing the ball out. It was a bit like when McNair ended up there too - incidentally he now plays central defence for San Diego and is still only 29.
As for the game - it has to be a win but much will depend on the team selection and as you say the fitness of the players after leaving everything on the pitch on Tuesday.
A belter of a starter, Len. Your mention of the state of Luton’s pitch worries me - we play a short passing game, predicated on getting the ball forward quickly, via one-twos and passing into space, rather than the long ball forward. How that will go on an undulating surface is anyone’s guess.
An excellent starter as ever Len. Much appreciated.
A question: Do you think Howson can play so soon after the QPR win? He is not yet fully fit and even played 90 min on Tuesday.
If Howson is not risked and Fry will be back after the International break, who is able to cover at Luton?
Up the Boro!
Thanks for the Match Preview, Len. The previews are better than Boro's performances on the pitch most weeks and yours proves the point.
If Boro could get a 0-2 win at Kenilworth Road I'd be more than satisfied. Of course that would cause further anxiety ("only 1 point behind the Top Six now...", "on a charge so nothing is now impossible" etc).
Interesting article:
https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/middlesbrough-fc-steve-gibson-transparency-claim-issued/ 😎
What a Headliner Len. Well written with a lovely flow to it.
So, another “must win match”, how many of those have we had now, especially against the bottom clubs that we should really beat.
The one piece I did not like within Len’s article, was about how bad their pitch is. So up against a long ball team whilst trying to play possession based football. What could wrong?
As for the Bore team lineup. Well it will be the same as Tuesday night, baring any Rockcliffe injuries during the week. Who else could he put in the starting line up, even Iheanacho will be guaranteed a place.
I cannot see a clean sheet from us though. ☹️
Thanks Len for another excellent opener detailing the opportunities and threats in the upcoming game.
Whilst Tuesday’s win was deserved and much needed, it was a game which epitomised everything that we have seen throughout the season both good and bad. It was a much better performance than Saturday but that was a low bar against which to be judged.
We started on the front foot, closed them down well and scored a good early goal. Having been in the ascendancy for much of the half, assisted by some poor QPR defending, we failed to score from two or three good opportunities which would have put the game to bed and instead were lucky to go in at half time leading, given QPR missed an easy chance just before half time.
In the second half we came out on the front foot which was just as well as the changes made by the QPR manager were having an impact and they were being more effective. Dijksteel scored an excellent goal which should have been enough until QPR pushed a tall full back up front and went direct. Consequently they scored as a result of him being able to direct a free header back into the six yard box for a team mate to prod home. 2-1 and a nervy 10+ mins ensued but we managed to hold out, for a change.
Given our history at Kenilworth Road, not won at the ground since I was there in 1974 to watch Jack’s team secure the League 1 title, their recent win at Cardiff, added to their direct style and our lack of normal centre backs then the odds of us getting even a point, to my mind unfortunately, are slim.
Our Daughter is visiting this weekend so will miss the game as I will be doing the airport run whilst it’s on; may take the iPad to the airport and catch the first half whilst awaiting her arrival or just leave it to watch the highlights. 😎
That’s a superb opener, Len, written with your usual flair and panache, and which exemplifies your beautiful use of language. I suppose that’s only to be expected of a former English teacher, but you excel yourself every time!
I was thinking this should be a game where anything less than 3 points for Boro would be a poor outcome. Then Luton go and win at Cardiff and today we find an EG article from one of their players saying we can expect ‘the full Kenny experience.’ It looks like our back line is going to be in for a busy afternoon. Tin hats will be provided. Will our battered and beleaguered troops cope with the atmosphere and the relentless pressure?
On the other hand, the statistics Len has outlined show a Luton side that has serious problems all over the pitch. If we score first, we’ll send shock waves through the ‘Kenny’ and it might lessen Luton’s confidence and resolve. So let’s get at them from the off. We need the Boro of Tuesday night to turn up, NOT the pale imitation that took the pitch at Swansea. I guess I’d be satisfied with a point in the circumstances.
One of the points in the article that interested me was the potential change to the club badge - interestingly there is an article on the MFC website where it mentions AV was first consulted on the history of the club crest and then fan workshops discussed the matter - I certainly think the badge could be greatly improved and a better overall design, especially for use in the digital age.
https://www.mfc.co.uk/news/2024/december/05/club-welcomes-supporters-to-crest-workshop-2/
Maybe Luton should consider getting an artificial pitch...
@werdermouth. Yes it was good to see that the club are involving the fans on a change that as important to the supporters as it is to the club.
Good also to see they will be seeking views on line and hopefully at the end of it all there will be a new crest which pleases the majority of supporters and has benefited from their input. 😎
Yes, I certainly would have some points as someone who has worked as a graphic designer - if you look at the badge on the top of the page about the workshop, you can see the proportions are not designed for the digital age as the text is barely readable as it's so small in comparison to the scale it is used - a third of the height is taken up with 'Football Club 1876' - perhaps the old round badge is now better suited to that type of use as it allows the lettering to be much larger - while retaining the central image of the lion. Indeed, is 'Football Club' even required instead of FC?
Len
A tour de force many many thanks I really enjoyed your preview although it did stir up my angst again about the game on Saturday.
Lets face it if we don’t win on Saturday that’s it for the season isn’t it ????
Boro3 has to come good this time!
OFB
I had a long conversation today with a friend of mine who works behind the scenes at the Riverside.
Obviously after talking about mutual friends and family our talk turned to the Boro.
What I can say is it was interesting to say the least! No half baked rumours or made up stuff.
What I will say and will not elaborate further is as we thought and speculated.
That there has been a major falling out behind the scenes which has affected the players and their performances.
One thing Carrick has done is to ensure that the fans are still behind the players and insists that they all do a complete circuit of the stadium applauding the fans.
Oh another thing - our Nigerian centre forward doesn’t appear to be involved with anything to do with the club other than take the £££.
So that’s it Diasborians you can accept or deny or repudiate rumours or scuttlebuck all I will say is I believe my friend.
OFB
@original-fat-bob That’s too much of a tease for me - I’d rather know nothing than have to guess, although I appreciate the need for confidentiality.
Maybe Luton should consider getting an artificial pitch...
That would never catch on! I remember when Preston had their’s - they earned loads of additional income by renting it out to local teams during the week - a great community resource but awful for professional teams trying to play on it.
All I will say is that the coach and his staff need to rise above any fallouts etc and just be professional and get on with their jobs. The players are handsomely rewarded , compared to many other people, to perform and win games of football.
i just hope that if Boro fail with achieving a top 6 finish then we don’t get any fallouts etc as the reason for failing.
Like others on this site Bob has set us all thinking and wanting more but we respect the confidentiality of any information. It will all come out in the wash.
philip of Huddersfield.
👍😁😁
Excellent opener Len, thank you so much. I think you have captured the irony of this fixture looking like a dead rubber one moment, to potentially becoming the game that could ultimately define the season for both clubs. Werder of course has spotted the irony of the state of their pitch and how it could be improved with the synthetic variety.
Just now I am happy to accept any good results that come our way and, without expecting it, will be delighted if we end up in the end of year lottery. Most important for me is the attitude of the players on the pitch. I can accept a result going against us if the players gave it their all. So, no prediction from me, just a hope that my real Boro, the one with heart, takes to the pitch on Saturday afternoon.
@OFB, that really is a tantalising post. Am I reading into this that there is some dis-connect between recruitment and coaching staff? If so, and Steve Gibson has allegedly refused to let MC resign, does that suggest where his loyalty is and just who might take the hit when the end of season review takes place?
I must confess that after my long chat today I was in two minds to post or not to post. But we are all grown ups on this blog and whilst some might say it’s just tittle tattle or rumour I know my source and expect developments in due course.
The players were affected but there is a resilience in the squad and a new found togetherness after the debacle at Swansea and I don’t expect to see that again this season.
I’m sure that whilst I haven’t really said anything due to confidentiality it was something hat I had to share so hopefully all Diasborians will forgive me foe posting.
OFB
A major falling out , that could be anything, alot of us have been involved in teams in the past, you create relationships with some on the team others you might not, but the one thing we all new and that was who should be in the team and those that are not as good as the best.
You want the ones who can help you win.
I'm confused at RVB his form as dropped, Mcgree I think as been messed about, no contract for Dyksteel, goalkeeping situation, Lenehan missing so long, Whittaker what's his problem, Giles ,!neacho, when we could have had Armstrong, Injuries gallore,
W eve all observed something isn't right.
Saturday, Luton will be out for revenge, after the last time out against us,I don't see us winning if they fight for a result,
Maybe it's time for Gibson to speak, and put us in the picture, don't hold your breath
@gt That’s quite a pessimistic view. I really don’t think it’s SG’s job to explain what issues have arisen within the club. I’d agree that he has to deal with them, but broadcasting them to the public won’t solve any problems.
Linking all the things you describe as issues is tempting, but without more insider knowledge, it could be that there are no connections at all.
@martin-bellamy I'm not interested in gossip, all I know is if I was I his position, I'd take the time to reassure the fans , the club and staff are in it together, I know it's all saying the right things , but our about talking next season depending on ifs and buts
I appreciate your attachment to the blog and your wish to let us know what you can but it is sadly true that many people will use the news of 'a falling out' to justify their own views of the club without any real knowledge to back this up. Let's all try to note OFB's good intentions and move on until there is something concrete that can be shared.
A football club will always be a mix of powerful egos and it's the job of the coaching team and management to create an environment in which the group can deliver the maximum outcome. Not an easy thing to do. I hope that your final hint suggests that at least a partial resolution has been reached and that everyone - except perhaps Ienacho - is pulling in more or less the same direction.
The Luton game will be a real physical test, exactly the type of game that we are least well equipped to deal with. Adding in the aerial threat of their big guys and this looks like a disaster in the making. Whilst Howson and Borges played really well against QPR, neither is great against crosses. If I had to pick one player, I'd hope to see Fry back in the team with the chance of a rest in the international gap. That would allow Howson to drop to the bench and only come on if needed.
UTB
It all depends if a falling out behind the scenes involved players or a player(s) with one of the coaching staff - either way it's not something a manager could allow to continue or indeed the club captain and you'd expect something like that to get sorted pretty quickly within a team environment. It may have affected a couple of games (may explain Swansea) but no sign of unrest within the squad against QPR!
Amazingly it's now 40 years since Luton became the second club (after QPR) to get an artificial pitch, which they finally got rid of in 1991. It certainly was different game on a bouncy pitch back then!
I love OFB's inside intel and it is one of the many contributions that helps set this site apart. Getting a full picture from the club or Gazette is nigh on impossible and so all contributions in this respect on this site are welcome indeed. Keep chatting away OFB.
That said, Selwyn is correct in that people can use such titbits to line their own narratives but it all adds to the mix really.
i appreciate Steve Gibson is not compelled to address the supporters and there is a dose of good sense here akin to the late Queen's 'never explain, never complain' mantra. But...we hear so little from the club about strategy and explanations of how what's what etc and yet we should. We are all shareholders whether by virtue of a season ticket or years of emotional and other commercial loyalty and deserve more openness.
Even if it was just once or twice a year, Warren Buffet style perhaps, then it would be a PR win almost every time for Gibson to speak to the masses. Despite his mistakes, he must be the trusted and admired chairman by his own fanbase anywhere surely? Pride might be holding him back but speaking out and telling us how it is from time to time would appease and lift most fans.
I don't expect it, but I really think he should.
There's always a danger when the top man speaks out on how the club is performing that he could undermine the people he employs in senior positions. Do we know what was the stated goal goal for this season? There's always a vagueness to that as what do you say at the end of the season when your head coach has failed to reach that goal.
In many ways we already know that the club has to operate within the constraints of Profit & Sustainability rules - plus we know the objective is promotion. However, that ambition of achieving promotion is now clearly secondary to the first objective of staying within the rules - though the actually budget for achieving promotion is determined by just how successful the club have been in generating income to get the best squad possible.
Unfortunately, we also saw in the last 2 January windows that high value sales of important players will have an adverse effect on the ability to achieve promotion - but maybe it should improve the chances next season in getting in better players or at least covering the wages of better players.
So in that context what can Steve Gibson actually say? He's putting in as much cash as he's allowed and has also written off debt into equity on a huge scale but the rest is up to the people he has employed to bring in players, sell some at a profit and then hope the coaching staff can build a winning side that can compete against other clubs who will have much bigger budgets.
The plan is to compete at the top of the table and not repeat the mistakes made last time and maybe be luckier than last season.
I hope no one thought I was criticising @ofb in my earlier posts. It certainly wasn’t my intent - I was just expressing a view that I’d rather have full facts than snippets or hints of disquiet at the club, however accurate they may be.
As far as tomorrow’s game is concerned, I’ve a worry that 1-1 looks like a likely result. That won’t suit either team - this is one we need to win.