Saturday 9th November KO 12.30 pm at the Riverside Stadium
Luton Town have been the surprise package of this season’s Championship so far.
But not in a good way.
I have a theory about that.
A good deal of affection and respect has come Luton’s way in the recent past. Their long march through the divisions began in 2014 when after a four year absence from League football the club were promoted from the Conference Premier division to League Two. In the following nine years they achieved three promotions and became a Premier League side in 2023 for the first time in their history (history, of course, having begun in 1992 with the Premiership’s foundation).
Luton Town’s recent history has become the club’s brand and proud identity: a small unfashionable club getting by on limited resources with a ground where small but raucous crowds are packed to within touching distance of the players. If “The Keni” would not be out of place in the National League, then neither would Luton’s unapologetic style of traditional English football. The side needs little encouragement from the crowd to “Get rid” or “Get stuck in “ because that is their game played with great energy and no little skill. The Riverside crowd won’t be seeing much in the way of backwards or sideways passing from the visitors. They move the ball forward as directly as they can to their two powerful physical strikers, Morris and Adebayo, get their midfielders up in support and create as much havoc as they can.
And, of course, they make the most of set pieces, particularly corners, Boro’s Achilles heel against the Hatters in the recent past. Here the expertise of Alfie Doughty, Luton’s danger man down the left, comes into play. Alfie is a creature we rarely see on Teesside, a solid left- back, flying left-winger, and deadly crosser. In addition he takes takes all of Luton’s set pieces: free kicks, corners from both sides, the lot, and generally to great effect. I think he is Luton's best player and I wish we had him.
Affection for Luton in the hearts of the nation was finally sealed last season by the case of their skipper, Tom Lockyer, who literally died on the pitch in a Premier League game against Bournemouth, his heart stopping for almost three minutes before he was fortunately revived. It was an incident which brought the football community across the country together in appreciation of, not a star, but the kind of hardworking and committed footballer who represents the very best of the British game and also of his colleagues and manager, Rob Edwards, who handled an awful situation with admirable restraint and sensitivity.
So it was good to see Luton defy everyone’s expectations as they gave such a good account of themselves in the top tier without compromising their principles.
They had secured promotion via the play-offs, but had finished 21 points behind Burnley and 10 points behind Sheffield United, so there was good reason to fear the worst at the start of their inaugural Premier League season.
As it turned out, Luton were eventually relegated, but not without an almighty fight. In the event they finished third from bottom, 2 points clear of Burnley, a huge turnaround of 23 points from the previous season, and 10 points ahead of Sheffield United, a turnaround of 21 points.
I recount these events, not because Diasborians will be unfamiliar with them, but because I think that they may provide a key to explaining Luton’s problems as they face the Boro this Saturday.
Luton have been brilliant for a decade now at proving the pundits wrong, in defying and exceeding expectations and in getting results by playing their own game against more talented and better resourced teams.
But bolstered by their on the field successes last season and hefty parachute payments, they re-entered the Championship not as giant-killers , but now as comparative giants themselves, well-resourced and used to playing at a much higher level.
This must present something of a psychological problem to the players, staff and supporters of the club, and to its well-established self-image and sense of identity. The problem is two-fold. From what I have seen of Luton this season they do not have the skills on the ball or in terms of passing and movement to carry the weight of the greater expectations they now carry. Both individually and collectively the Boro, like a number of other Championship sides, seem like a much more progressive, skilful and better coached team.
Secondly, when a team are no longer the perpetual underdogs, there is always a danger that they may expect good results to follow as a matter of course. That is they may tend to run less, fight less and play with less energy. And that is the Luton Town that I have seen this season.
They remain a tough side, a route one team, who will press and tackle hard, ruffle feathers and get stuck in. In Carlton Morris they have a striker who scored 11 Premier League goals last season, and 20 in their previous Championship season, just behind Coventry’s Gyokeres. But this season their strikers seem less committed, their midfield less inclined to put in the hard yards to support them, and that has shown up in their results, the increasing frustrations of their supporters and the pressure now being put on their manager
It will surprise no one if some time soon Luton go on an unbeaten run. Their victory last night against in-form Cardiff was more emphatic than the 1-0 scoreline suggests. The goal came-surprise surprise-from a pin-point Doughty corner headed home by striker Jacob Brown.
They will be hoping to carry forward that form on Saturday. But those hopes were dealt a blow in time added on when Doughty went down in some pain. Luton will be tight-lipped about it but it looked serious and I doubt that he will play on Saturday.
This will tip the scales further in Boro’s, and in particular Ben Doak’s, favour
Given the respective form lines and Boro’s extra day of rest and preparation, I’m going for a Bob-style 3-1
At any rate that’s my theory.
Great starter Len and a thought provoking angle of approach and analysis. Right, now to read it again and try work out in my mind which version of the 'Riverside Unpredictables' will turn up on Saturday.
Perhaps more importantly I hope our Diasboro injured list are collectively continuing their recovery well.
Thank you Len,
UTB,
John
Excellent opener Len, you are correct on two major points regarding Saturday’s game at the Riverside. 1. Doughty being one of their most dangerous players, not only for his set piece delivery but also, from what I have witnessed seeing him play, he seems to be the one who drives the team forward with his work attitude. 2. Yes, he did get injured late in the game (injury time) with what looked like a serious ankle injury but, unbelievably allowed him to come back on to hobble about for the last few minutes then go back to the floor on the final whistle, to be helped off by the Luton medical staff, which if he is not fit for Saturday, leaves Luton without a first choice left back to face Doak !
Come on BORO.
Thanks exmil. It was extraordinary to see Doughty hobble back on even though so badly injured and I assume it must have been because Luton must already have used all of their substitutes. Even so, it seemed an ill-advised decision.
I'm still trying to fathom the even more inexplicable decision of Coventry to sack Mark Robbins. The stupidity and short-termism of some owners and heads of football knows no bounds
Excellent starter thank you Len. Also for the heads up about Mark Robbins, unbelievable!
I have Luton down as under performers this season in the COTS challenge and until the other night they were sticking to the script. I just hope they don’t go on the unbeaten run you mentioned as that will impact us.
I hope you prediction is correct albeit my view is that we may see something that has not been witnessed at the Riverside this season, ⚽️-⚽️. 😎
A great opener. I liked it a lot. Much better English than the long QPR starter a few days back. 🙄
RE: Coventry
That was strange and unexpected. I thought he was very popular with the fans, too.
This what I picked up from the BBC:
Coventry City boss Mark Robins, the English Football League's longest serving manager, has been sacked by the Championship club.
Robins, 54, was in his second spell as Sky Blues boss, having returned to the club in March 2017 after the sacking of Russell Slade.
His departure in the wake of Wednesday's defeat by Derby County comes after just four wins in 14 Championship games this season that leaves the Sky Blues 17th in the table and equal on points with Plymouth in the relegation spots.
Robins' sacking comes just over 17 months since he got the Sky Blues to within one win of a Premier League return, with Coventry beaten by Luton Town on penalties in the Championship play-off final in May 2023.
And I add that a dodgy decision against Man Utd for a place in the FA Cup final. Unbelievable, Jeff. Up the Boro and Mr Gibson!
Thanks Len for another great preview with a very perceptive analysis of Luton's less than impressive start to the season - though should we be worried that they probably start as underdogs against Boro on Saturday?
Having said that, it seems the last team who convincingly beat us at the Riverside only a few days ago have decided it clearly demonstrated that their manager was not up to it - very strange decision to sack Robbins given how well he's done in recent seasons. I think that sacking now makes Carrick technically the longest serving manager in the Championship as Derby's Paul Warne played in League 1 last season - he should be getting worried 😉
There's some selection issues for Carrick on Saturday with who to play at left back if Borges isn't fit - plus I'd expect Hackney to return as Howson is still getting up to speed. I'd also start Latte Lath as he looks fit and hungry and scoring again.
Great Stuff Len, a thought provoking and well worked out opening leader piece for us all to ponder. It’s strange to think of Luton amongst the big boys as to me they’ve always been a small club. That’s not me being all snooty or big headed about being a Boro supporter, but they, like Bournemouth, Brighton, Brentford and Reading, Millwall and Crystal Palace all were small clubs when I first started supporting Boro.
Coventry making swift managerial changes, has obviously shaken up a lot of Boro supporters, as a few were starting to cast envious glances at Mark Robbins and his talent for overcoming Boro in so many games over the past two years.
I still think we lack a leader on the pitch, all snarling and fist clenching and prepared to kick people to win a game. Boro are sometimes too nice for their own good and not prepared to go toe to toe, or face to face which is what’s needed sometimes in the Championship. Tippy tippy tappy nice football is all very nice but a lot of the games in the Championship are all blood and guts !
I thought we stood a good chance of automatic promotion this season after a squad that consists mainly of permanent signings and who have played together for a while now.
It’s at left back the problem position for us on Saturday, is George Friend free?
it’s no surprise to anyone my forecast is it?
Boro3 Luton 0
THANKS LEN ITS APPRECIATED!
OFB
An excellent starter, Len - full of insight and information.
Which Boro will turn up on Saturday? Who knows, but hopefully the goal scoring will continue. I’ve enjoyed seeing LL come on as a sub - he gives us a different option upfront, particularly when the opposition’s defence is tiring, so I stick with TC from the start.
2-0 for me in the early kick off.
Great opener Len, thank you and an interesting psychological take on how teams/individuals might perform given their changing status from minnow to giant.
Whilst last season may have been Lutons (now where did I put that apostrophe key...) first and only season as a Premier League club, to be fair to their longer term heritage from the pre-Premiership era, they did spend time in Division One of the Football League in each of the 1950's, 1970s 1980s' and 1990es. Do I recall correctly that they also were victorious in a League Cup final at the old Wembley in the mid or late 80s?
The style of Luton"s current game is of course just the style of play that our thoroughbreds have struggled to vanquish this last season or two. That is a worry. I suppose we are really still waiting to see if Boro has at last started to turn the corner to be able to score against (dare I say it?) lesser opposition, or at least the opposition that defends deeply so well and yet breaks out to deadly effect It would be heartening for us to go into the international break with another convincing victory. I think we will do so. The big worry then will be that (as always seems to happen) we will lose any momentum we have when we start up again after the break.
Sadly I will miss the game on Saturday, so we are sure to play well and win.
CoB
Bearing in mind that the vast majority of posts on here by @lenmasterman are thoughtful and well argued, it's no surprise that his Match Preview for Boro v Luton Town has followed form. I suspect it wouldn't be the "done thing" to wish that Alfie Doughty's ankle injury late in yesterday's game against Cardiff will prevent him playing against Boro, though I'd be perfectly happy for him to make a recovery in time for Luton's home game against Hull City on Saturday 23rd November. Thanks, Len, for your Preview.
I think I also have Luton down as my expected under-performers this season. And I am surprised that Mark Robbins has been sacked though, probably, nothing should surprise me about it really. Owners are unforgiving and notoriously quick to pull the trigger. Knowing how I felt about the Boro performance against Coventry last Saturday, I can only imagine how the Coventry fans must have felt losing at home to Derby County yesterday when, after coming so close in the play-offs last season, they must have been expecting to be in the promotion shake-up this season rather than currently being 17th in the league table.
Let's hope Boro's players, in whatever formation might be selected, will carry on as they left off at QPR. I think hard-working and now scoring Conway deserves to start. Three points would be very welcome indeed.
@powmillnaemore - Luton Town not only won the League Cup in 1987-88 beating Arsenal 3-2 at Wembley but lost in the Final the following year when beaten 3-1 by Nottingham Forest. Luton also lost to Forest in the 1958-59 FA Cup Final (2-1).
Luton are a dogged physical side, big upfront , you can't play soft against them, that's an issue we have at times, a gifted team that can be out fought late in games , what I mean is ala Norwich, start looking around instead of buckling down, obviously a win is what we need, but to go into the break even with a point sets us up , with a winter push
COB
you’ve just jogged my memory of Luton Manager David Pleat in a flared suit white mocassin shoes and carnation hurtling around the pitch at Wembley when they’d won.
He left to join Man City as manager straight after !
Funny how memories can be jogged !
Ofb
The David Pleat on the pitch was at Maine Road when Luton avoided relegation. Mick Harford was the manager when they won the League Cup.
https://www.byfarthegreatestteam.com/posts/david-pleat-maine-road-jig/
Also thanks Len for a great opener. Think this might be a very tough game. I didn't see the Doughty injury but checking on the BBC they had only made 3 subs so he could have been substituted.
Absolute belter of a Headliner Len. So well crafted, to a very high standard, as are all your posts.
No prediction from me as usual. I am just longing for a home win. The fans deserve one and then no excuses from Mr Carrick.
All the teams have now played 14 games. Sunderland still top, WBA still drawing and the fans calling for the coaches sacking.
As to Boro’s form, here is the League over the last six games with Millwall of all teams top.
West Brom haven't scored at home since 22nd September and are 5th in the league. They have scored less than us. In fact only two of the top six have scored more than us. Our problem is the defence as we have conceded 16 goals the top five have all conceded less than 10. Tom Conway is equal 4th top scorer in the Championship with 5. Just looked at Burnley they scored 9 goals in their first two games and have only scored 8 more in the next 12. Compared to last season the league looks a lot tighter at this point last season Leicester had 39 points and Ipswich 34.
I loved your thoughtful and really interesting starter, Len. As ever, you have found another way to present the argument and the analysis, both of which are very convincing. I don’t know how you do it every time!
As I said towards the end of the QPR thread, I really have no idea which Boro will turn up on Saturday so I won’t make a prediction. All I know is that we should beat them. Eric Paylor wrote this week about Boro needing to make The Riverside a fortress again: how right he is! Let’s hope we start that process off on Saturday by taking 3 points off The Hatters.
Elsewhere, Hartlepool United have confirmed Lennie Lawrence will continue as manager until the end of the season - and will be joined by a new look coaching team.
Lawrence, who has been in interim charge since Darren Sarll's sacking, has been appointed as manager until the end of the campaign.
In November 2022, Lawrence was appointed as a Non Executive Director at Hartlepool United.
The former Boro manager will be 77 year old next month. He was our manager 1991–1994.
Up the Boro!
If an 18-month older Donald Trump can be appointed as the new manager of the USA - replacing a 5-year older Joe Biden - then I'm sure Lennie will be OK managing the less demanding task of Hartlepool United. Though will he make them great again?
It must be purgatory to watch West Brom as they only scored 1 goal in October and have so far only 1 goal in November. Six draws since we beat them - 4 of which have been 0-0. The fact that Boro have only gained a point more in our last six games is what I call a 'missed opportunity' - let's hope the scoring continues on Saturday but the conceding doesn't!
How can a manager or head coach be able to built a promotion team in less than two seasons?
Michael Carrick is now the second longest serving manager in the Championship.
Only Paul Warne at Derby has been in his current position for longer than Boro's boss, and Carlos Corberan at West Brom and Rob Edwards at Luton are the only others to pass the two-year mark.
The Derby boss had been in charge for one month and two days longer than Carrick.
I just wondrer what is the average in the Championship if there only four manager over the two year mark, and none of them has been in the office over two years and two months. Crazy in my opinnion.
Up the Boro!
MAHUA.... I'm there alreadyIf an 18-month older Donald Trump can be appointed as the new manager of the USA - replacing a 5-year older Joe Biden - then I'm sure Lennie will be OK managing the less demanding task of Hartlepool United. Though will he make them great again?
I can see it all now…..
- 20% tariff on all goods entering Hartlepool Borough Council originating in Tyne and Wear
- A new tournament standard golf links between Seaton Carew and the North Gare with a luxury 6 star hotel and resort development on the Seaton Common National Nature Reserve and SSI
- Deportation of all undocumented primates sporting bodily hair and a tail
- Free pardon for anyone found guilty of lynching any documented primate sporting bodily hair and a tail
- Completion of a 6 metre high wall along the north bank of the River Tees reaching from the North Gare to Cross Fell
- Relocation of the US Embassy from Nine Elms (SW11) to Raby Road
I noticed reading the Gazette's predicted line-up for Luton it still reports: "He [Hayden Hackney] is still walking a disciplinary tightrope though, with the midfielder now on four yellow cards and one away from another suspension."
Hackney is definitely only on 3 yellow cards but the disciplinary tightrope actually belongs to Ben Doak, who is now on 4 yellow cards after picking up another at QPR.
As for left-back, the Gazette seems to think Ayling will continue in that role after taking over from Borges on Tuesday - though both Clarke and Edmundson are left-footers with the latter apparently being two-footed so would one of those be a better option - or should George McCormick get his chance?
I wonder if Carrick will look at the physical style that Luton use with plenty of crosses and maybe go with three at the back - Fry, Edmundson and Clarke - with McGree at left wing back and Dijksteel/Ayling on the other side.
Hackney and Morris in the middle with Azaz, Conway and Doak up front would seem fairly certain.
UTB
I'm afraid that I will have to take my leave of this thread as I am having an early winter break. Sadly I won't get to see the Luton game, as I will be flying when it's played. It will be the first game I have missed this season.
In a dystopian week it's been something of a relief and a welcome distraction to be able to write something about what Hugh McIlvanney called "the magnificent irrelevance" of football.
Thank you all for your too kind comments. It's gratifying to know that in this small corner of the world one can assume a mutuality of respect and a generosity of spirit which are disappearing in the wider world faster than the polar ice-caps.
Safe travels Len and enjoy your break. I hope the weather is kind for you
@lenmasterman - Have a good holiday, Len. Great start to the thread so it will be a pity you may not get to join in the rest of it, nor see the game.