Despite gorging early doors on a block of six-month aged lactose-free English cheddar, hitherto unlikely dreams of going top of the table this weekend have unfortunately failed to manifest - admittedly it was a desperate long-shot plan B after hopes of a third successive victory were dashed in North London before the break - but hey at least I had one!
While I may be off cheese for the foreseeable future, many Boro followers were certainly left feeling cheesed off after possession sadly proved not to be nine-tenths of the law down at Watford. The three points were once again stolen in broad daylight as Michael Carrick's team were left to plead guilty of playing without due care and attention as they failed to see out the game. Hopefully they'll avoid a long stretch outside the play-off positions as the judgement passed down sees them being let off with a reprimand after promising they wouldn't do it again - well not until the next time.
Thankfully, it was an international break so everyone could simmer for a couple of weeks and stare at the table and continue to wonder why there are 8 teams above us. Dare I say it was once again a missed opportunity in a season of ifs and buts and definitely maybes (other reformed rock band debut albums are available). Nevertheless, another result that has seen nearly half of the points thrown away that could so easily have been gained.
I'm not saying Boro should be now sitting on 27 points but possibly 25 would have been a fair reflection of the opportunities presented and the level of opposition so far this season. OK, you may be wondering why I chose to set fire to those foam hands and inhale the fumes during an international break? Well quite frankly what else is there to do if you can't get enthused by rebranded pseudo-friendlies and don't like watching B-list celebrities trying to dance or have no desire to watch another billionaire have a slow-motion public meltdown - if only he could dance...
As for those 'ifs and buts'... well perhaps it may be a little too early to invoke that proverb given it's barely mid-October and the man with the white beard hasn't even put his clock back yet! Though apparently, 'If ifs and buts were candy and nuts then we'd all have a Merry Christmas'. Sadly, as I mull over my wine, I fear Finn Azaz may have developed nut allergy and Latte Lath is casting serious doubt on whether the Candy Man can.
Anyway, Boro have a good opportunity to bounce back on Saturday as they host Bristol City at the Riverside. The Robins are currently bobbing along in 16th place on 11 points but have only lost 2 games, which is one fewer than Boro. They are led by a young coach in Liam Manning, who turns 39 next week but has already 4 years managerial experience behind him. He favours a high possession, high pressing style of football and he was poached from Oxford United in November last season as they sat second in League One.
So it should be an interesting contest to see how two clubs who are both intent on keeping possession fare. If you were skeptical that possession was a meaningful measure on the likelihood of victory then maybe taking a glance at Bristol City's stats won't persuade you otherwise.
| Opposition | Possession | Shots | On Target | Score | Result |
| Cardiff (H) | 59.5% | 16 | 2 | 1-1 | D |
| Sheff Wed (H) | 60.2% | 10 | 2 | 0-0 | D |
| Swansea (A) | 34.2% | 15 | 6 | 1-1 | D |
| Oxford (H) | 56.3% | 19 | 6 | 2-1 | W |
| Blackburn (A) | 55.4% | 8 | 2 | 0-3 | L |
| Derby (A) | 64.1% | 13 | 5 | 0-3 | L |
| Coventry (H) | 50.1% | 12 | 7 | 1-1 | D |
| Millwall (H) | 61.1% | 11 | 6 | 4-3 | W |
| Hull (A) | 53.6% | 15 | 3 | 1-1 | D |
It could easily be the story of Boro's season where dominance of possession hasn't always seen that converted into results. Perhaps, what it also shows (barring that Millwall game) is that the Bristol City have also failed to take their chances in front of goal. Likewise, the Robins dominated possession against Blackburn and Derby but lost both games 3-0 - only against Swansea did they fail to control the possession but as we know having the ball doesn't matter unless you do something with it.
Similarly, it seems 'Shots on Goal' is not a particular good indicator of the likelihood of a player scoring a goal. Boro currently have three players in the top ten for shots on goal this season but those 53 shots between them have only produced 3 goals - two recent stunners from Hackney and a penalty from Latte Lath in our opening game with Finn Azaz's secret goal celebration yet to be showcased.
Incidentally, Boro's next player in the list is Aiden Morris in 50th place with no goals but 9 shots and sadly just the one on target, which probably deserved some kind of elaborate celebration to avoid it being forgotten completely.
| Rank | Player | Shots | On Target | Goals | Conversion rate |
| 4th | Finn Azaz | 20 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6th | Latte Lath | 17 | 5 | 1 | 5.9% |
| 9th | Hackney | 16 | 8 | 2 | 12.5% |
| 50th | Morris | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
As you may recall, Boro are of course still top of the expected goals table with an xG of 1.7 with Bristol City in the xG play-offs at 6th with 1.44. Boro are also top (bottom?) of the expected goals conceded table with an xGD of 0.77 and this is almost identical to our official actual goals per game conceded in 0.78 - which begs the question of whether we should care where that extra 0.01 came from or is it as UB40 claimed just a statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care - in case anyone does, I believe the xGD was just a rounding error from 0.77777 recurring to infinity. Anyway, before everyone is beyond caring, I should perhaps be clear that their 1980s hit 'I am a One in Ten' was not in anyway about the strike rate of Boro forwards...
So all these anomalies between statistical and real world have conspired to keep Boro from leading the pack with the emphasis on needing to put away our chances. OK, we are where we are and despite unnecessarily dropping points Michael Carrick's team are still looking like serious promotion contenders and if Boro's forwards can find a bit more accuracy and the team can find that elusive consistency then the only way is up. This season appears to have no standout teams in the Championship but that can quickly change if one or two go on a run. Should Boro win on Saturday then the ten-game mark will see us on 17 points from those games and that is definitely play-off material but perhaps it should have been better.
However, before we bank Saturday's points I would warn that looking at Bristol City's record this season it does feel like they are not a bad side and I suspect they will climb the table if their strikers start finding the net too. Though it does suggest if they attempt their usual pressing game then it will offer Michael Carrick's team an opportunity to play to our advantages if we can beat the press and don't make silly mistakes passing it out from the back. Hard to say which team will win the possession stats but with luck the main stat will show in Boro's favour with another win!
So here's hoping it will be hard cheese to the Robins as Boro chalk up another victory...
Boro v Bristol City will be played at the Riverside on Saturday 19th October at 3pm.
I wrote this preview at the weekend before the tragic news of Bristol City manager's son Theo was reported yesterday. A club statement was issued:
"Everyone at Bristol City Football Club is deeply saddened by the passing of Liam's recently born son Theo John Manning. We know that Bristol City's supporters and the wider football family will share their condolences and deepest sympathy with Liam, his wife Fran and his son Isaac during this difficult period. We ask that the privacy of Liam and his family is respected during this time."
I'm sure everyone on Diasboro, football and beyond will share in these sentiments and his assistant Chris Hogg will now be in charge of the Robins at the Riverside during Liam Manning's leave of absence.
werdermouth, thank you for a different yet very interesting read, with a flavour of “Name that tune”. I am still on course to attend on Saturday, although I had a bit of a rough time last night. It might have been a bit of “self inflicted” as I went for my first walks outside, I set my timer for 5 minutes and when it went off I turned around and returned home, first walk around lunchtime and second around 4/5 o’clock, overall both walks covered just short of a mile, today is just rest up.
I am really looking forward to the game, hopefully 3 points too, tinged with sadness about Theo John Manning, wishing my deepest condolences to all his family and friends.
Come on BORO.
"Cracking bit of cheese, @werdermouth" to misquote from Wallace and Gromit. Lets just hope we are not all going crackers after 90 minutes on Saturday. Lets all be confident that no matter how blue we might get on a chilly Saturday afternoon, Boro will find a rich vein of form to melt all our worries away and make it a 'fun do' [anag.] for Boro fans everywhere.
Often as not over the last few years we have gone into an international break having started on a run of good results and looking truly upwardly mobile, only to come out of the international break having lost all momentum and any semblance of form to come crashing down again. Maybe this time we have avoided that trap by having gifted Watford a bonus 3 points just before the break just when it looked like we were going to come away with a third win on the spin. So, no momentum for us to lose on Saturday and maybe a group of players that has sat on that defeat and that will come out with something to prove against the Robins.
No doubt the Bristol squad will be playing for their absent manager and will be a tough nut for us to prise open, but prise them open is what I expect Boro to do. I am going to borrow OFB's Boro3 for this one as the big cheeses in our squad turn in a grate performance.
Excellent work, @wedermouth, with another starter for the ages. I was wheying up whether to throw in a few cheese puns but decided against it, except to say that I’m expecting us to take all three points against the Cathedral City of Bristol on Saturday.
Sol Brynn has just signed a new 4 year contract.
Come on BORO .
Excellent cheese puns there Powmill - though maybe I should have mentioned the baby cheeses when I mentioned my ifs and buts proverb 😉
Plus a very mature reference from Martin too...
Thomas Tuchel appointed England manager.
Come on BORO.
It fills me full of national pride to see a fellow German getting the England job 😉
@werdermouth and @exmil
You can just imagine the headlines in a couple of years time for when the wheels are coming off the England bus (again!), "He thinks its all over, but it is now."
A cracking starter, werder! I really enjoyed that! My only problem with it is that somehow I have to follow it up with the next one against Sheffield United. Eeek!
I honestly have no idea what to expect on Saturday. We should have enough to beat Bristol City, but we said that about Derby, Portsmouth and Preston. Given the run of challenging games to follow, we could really do with getting the 3 points this time. And I think it’s time we started to see a more consistent and ruthless Boro that finishes off teams we dominate.
I hope you’re feeling better and stronger, Exmil.
@clive-hurren Day by day I am getting there, going to the Riverside on Saturday will be just the tonic I need 👍.
Come on BORO.
Superb starter, Werder. Thoroughly enjoyed that.
Good for you! Let’s hope Boro provide you with some success-therapy.
@werdermouth Great Headliner, with the stats comparisons. Just shows you can make anything look good.
I have not been confident all season, and this is another “must win” game, to keep us hanging on the shirt tails of the top six. It will also stop the plebs from becoming restless and giving the thumbs down to the team.
Werdermouth,
Excellent starter and as Pedro de Espana says, you can dress anything up with stats but I rather think that we're beyond being blinded and dazzled by stats, the Gazette builds whole articles around these figures but it seems to be the 'goals for' column that counts more than any other stat along with that other column titled 'against'.
I'd like to see Boro three back again but Bristol will be difficult and awkward although perhaps our ex-Bristol man will score. If he was playing a reverse role of Boro to Bristol we all know he would.
Exmil, enjoy the game but don't don't overdo it.
Once again Werder thank you.
UTB,
John
Thanks everyone for your kind wishes and I will take it, especially as the club are looking after me. My step son, who has involvement with the club, has arranged for my youngest son to be able to drive through the closure by the bridge down to the ground entrance, around the ground and to be dropped of by and use the Hardwick bar entrance, he can then return at 6 to pick me up from the same spot and I can have a beer while I wait for him. That’s how MFC look after their supporters when needed, thank you MFC.
Come on BORO.
@werdermouth - excellent starter piece but, these days, we are learning to expect nothing less! A very enjoyable, if cheesy, read.
I have just returned yesterday after a particularly grim 9+ hours (or was it 10+ ?) return trip by car from Ullapool. Persistent rain all the way down until I got to Tyneside; VERY dark with low cloud throughout much of Scotland where, in parts, it fell even lower (when it became more fog than mist); standing water on some roads (so thanks to other drivers putting their warning hazards on which alerted me at one point, as a skidding/aquaplaning accident could easily have occurred); some road/junction closures at points in the journey that caused "mild consternation" before the way-out became clear; and darkness fell during the Northumberland stretch of the A1 which, given the rain and the spray from HGVs in particular on the non-dualled parts of the road increased the stress levels as the home stretch began to enter the subconscious. The stay itself and the places visited up there for the umpteenth time - Kylesku Bridge, Lochinver, Gairloch, Poolewe and Torridon as well as Ullapool itself though that town is clearly closing down for the colder months ahead - were good, as well as the journey up there. It's as if the return trip is designed to bring one back to Earth with a damp and resounding thud.
Too early to make any predictions at this stage.
@Exmil - pleased to hear you are improving and I can only hope that the Boro doesn't put you through the wringer on Saturday.
Terrible news about the son of the Bristol City Manager.
Any ideas about a possible result on Saturday?
I hope Exmil will enjoy a good performance and result while at the Riverside. I will go for a 3-0 win with a brace by Latte Lath and a surprice goal by Marcus Forss after being introduced on the 60th min.
I hope OFB will agree with me. Surely? We could do with a good result after Watford.
Up the Boro!
I suspect it could be a tight games as after shipping 11 in their first 5 games, Bristol City appear to have tightened up with only 3 goals conceded in their last 4 games. Though if it were 3-0 then I'd fancy a brace for our most clinical striker in Marcus Forss and a surprise goal for Latte Lath is perhaps more likely 😉 though I think Forss will not be ready for a start just yet.
@werdermouth More stats Werder, that I was not aware of.
The only stats I know, are the goals scored and goals conceded, which we all acknowledge as the ones that count.
As Werder pointed out, it looks as though City have tightened their defence, and we cannot score goals for love or money, only six at home in four games.
So will it be a drab, nil all. Will City let us have all the possession and hit us on the break to score when we lose the ball in their box. Or will it be something else. Trying to predict what team Boro will do is nigh on impossible.
Let’s just hope for a minor miracle
@werdermouth ayou might be right. It is a tough match.
ON OUR FORM AGAINST BRISTOL CITY…
There’s probably always a reason for it (no win in five games against them).
I read this from mfc.co.uk page. But that is past and now is now. I trust in Carrick and the boys. So a welcome home win.
Up the Boro!
@Werdermouth. Belated thanks for an excellent opener, informative and amusing as always.
Unfortunately, as many have said, we don’t come back from international breaks with all guns blazing and to add to our problems we face a side who seem to have a bit of a hex over us.
So not sure what to expect tomorrow. Given both our records to date a 0-0 looks highly likely but I hope we can squeeze a win otherwise it will have been two steps forward and two back, confirming that our inconsistency continues to persist.
CoB give me a tonic before I head to Valencia. 😎
@jarkko - I will have a pint of what you're drinking, mate! And @PeterSurtees - nice post (not only about "Ghosts" which my family has watched and of which there is now an American "clone" series, but the football content). Unlike some of the American copycat series, "Ghosts" (USA) is really quite similar to our original series despite the relative youth of the country in which it is set.
I'd be happy with any win on Saturday so I suppose 1-0 is the most likely successful outcome. I mean, I'd say 5-0 if I believed there was any possibility of it, but realism prevents it.
Werder
Many thanks for a very interesting and informative preview. Typical of your high standard which I enjoyed immensely.
Sorry I haven’t been posting much but have had a few health issues past few weeks with my pacemaker.
No ! My pacemaker is not Mrs OFB!
OFB
Hopefully the Boro will give you a boost before your op - all the best for next week and looking forward to hearing from you soon and wish you a speedy recovery!
Sorry to hear you've been unwell and hope they've managed to sort out the problems with your pacemaker and you back to full fitness soon!
If we're lucky McGree will ghost into the box and score a couple on Saturday to keep our spirits up...
@peter-surtees there are times when Boro are like Marley's Ghost or would it be any one of M R James' stories?
OFB and k-p-in Spain. Get well and sorted the pair of you, Diasboro is getting a casualty list like the Boro.
UTB,
John
Werdermouth thank you for your intro I enjoyed reading it. Peter, you pretty well nailed the current position; positive about our prospects in general without being foolhardy enough to bet the farm on a win tomorrow! I am feeling optimistic - 2-0 Boro anyone?