BORO away v Burnley
Turf Moor
Friday December 6, 8.00pm (Lancashire Mean Time)
Saturday December 7, 7.00am (Australian Eastern Daylight Saving Time)
Previously, I have used the opportunity of writing an introduction as an excuse to dig into some aspect of the opposition that has drawn my attention and that hasn’t always been linked to the actual game. However, this time the game seems particularly important, and so I’m going to spend more time trying to work out how it might play out. I will, however, start by setting out our history against Burnley. We have played them 69 times in Cup and League, winning 23, drawing 19 and losing 27. That isn’t a high number of games and suggests that, in the last 120 years or so, we have spent a reasonable amount of time in different divisions. We haven’t beaten them since 2015 which makes it time to put that right.
I started thinking about this game before the Blackburn fixture, and at that point in time the headline seemed obvious. After 15 goals in three games, we were clearly the Unstoppable Force. Lined against us was a Burnley side that everyone was describing as the best cure for insomnia since Aitor Karanka, but, at the same time, everyone recognised that they have been ruthlessly efficient. Therefore, The Unstoppable Force vs The Immovable Object was born. A classic confrontation.
However, with the inevitability of Greek drama, the football gods decided that Boro v Blackburn was an opportunity that couldn’t be missed. We found ourselves with the heart of our team neatly excised as Hackney, Morris, Azaz and Bergzorg were all too ill to start and McGree dropped out of commission within 15 minutes. The gods then neatly tied it all up in a bow by making sure that Boro would get nothing out of the fixture. They inflicted an attack of instant fallibility on a poor linesman who was rendered incapable of looking along the line to see the blue and white player sticking out…….largely due to the fact that he also became incapable of putting one foot in front of another and so couldn’t locate the line in question and therefore had no chance of making the right decision. (RANT OVER)
So, were we the Unstoppable Force anymore? I wasn’t sure whether one poorish game could make the difference and was waiting to see what happened against Hapless Hull and, even more, who exactly we were able to put on the pitch. Well, as we know, Boro were able to beat Hull 3-1 and one could easily say that ‘unstoppability has returned’ but I’m not so sure. Boro had 44% possession, which doesn’t suggest that we were dominating the game, yet we had 21 shots to only 10 from Hull. This compares to the Blackburn game when Boro had 61% possession but only 10 shots to Blackburn’s 7.
When I saw this, I went back and had a look at some more games and found the following figures
| • Boro v Sheff Utd | Boro 54% possession, 18 shots to 9 |
| • Boro v Norwich | Boro 50% possession, 14 shots to 9 |
| • Boro v Coventry | Boro 50% possession, 9 shots to 10 |
| • Boro v QPR | Boro 55% possession, 12 shots to 7 |
| • Boro v Luton | Boro 52% possession, 11 shots to 5 |
| • Boro v Oxford | Boro 64% possession, 16 shots to 11 |
| • Boro v Blackburn | Boro 61% possession, 10 shots to 7 |
| • Boro v Hull | Boro 44% possession, 21 shots to 10 |
It seems to me that we are quite comfortable in possession but are also reasonably comfortable conceding possession. Somehow, we have finally discovered, Blackburn aside, how to attack more efficiently. This does fit with a lot of the comments from earlier in the season when a constant theme was our ability to shoot linked with our inability to score.
Looking at the season to date, Boro are averaging 55.6% possession which is sixth in the division – behind Leeds, Swansea, Norwich, Hull and Burnley – have taken 289 shots – second only to Leeds (292) – and have scored 31 goals – second only to Norwich (32).
Recently, we have powered in the goals. Has there been any reason? I’m not sure but I’m convinced that Hackney and Azaz are the key to how we go forward against ‘low block’ teams and Morris is the key to how we take on any good teams. His loss could be a major factor against the better teams. Hackney is the only player that we have who always looks to drive forward or play a forward pass and we need him to remain injury-free.
Let’s now take a closer look at Burnley.
Having gone up in season 22/23 with a dominating 101 points, they upgraded their squad but were immediately relegated. They then lost their manager as Vincent Kompany was appointed as coach to Bayern Munchen (!). They replaced him with Scott Parker, a manager who has been successful but really doesn’t seem to get on with fans, both for his general attitude and for his style of play which has often been criticized as being overly cautious.
That didn’t count against him as Burnley started the season with two thumping wins, 4-1 away at Luton and 5-0 at home to Cardiff. The Luton win seemed incredibly impressive at the time, but subsequent events have put both those results into perspective. Anyway, they then lost to Sunderland and drew with Blackburn which left them at the end of August with 7 points out of 12, having PL4, W2, D1 and a goal difference of +7 (10-3). Not exceptional but certainly a solid start.
Since that date, Burnley have gone on a remarkable run. Here are their month-by-month results
| P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
| August | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| September | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| October | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| November | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| TOTAL TO DATE | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
Since their up and down opening month, they have played 14 games in the Championship and conceded just 3 goals. That is a quite extraordinary defensive run that includes 11 clean sheets. Adding in the Cardiff win in their second game, that makes 12 clean sheets kept in total. I haven’t checked the whole history of the Championship and the old Division 2, but there have been suggestions that Burnley’s overall record of just 6 goals conceded after 18 games is the lowest ever recorded.
So how is the game likely to play out? I was listening to the Boro Breakdown Podcast – which I heartily recommend – and one of the presenters suggested a comparison to the Leicester away game last year. I had a look, and that game produced a remarkable 29% possession for Boro along with a 2-1 win. I can understand the likelihood that Burnley will have the majority of the possession but that doesn’t mean that we will be hanging on. Having seen most of the games this season, there seem to me to be some basic components to the way that we play.
1. We maintain possession but are at our best when we can also break quickly into a strong counterattack. The goal against Norwich is a classic example of this.
2. We find ourselves camped outside a defensive structure (typically a low block) that we try to pick apart either down the flanks or by inter-passing on the edge of the area. This can be problematic as we are getting better at it but can be vulnerable to counterattacks or sneaky set-piece goals.
3. We find ourselves up against a good team that plays a possession game, and we look to rely on counterattacks.
Different elements in these games require different skills and different players. Against Burnley, it may well be that our ability to initiate dangerous counterattacks could be the key to our success. That usually demands that the ball is either carried forward from midfield or played forward quickly. That tends to revolve around Azaz and Hackney with the wide forwards, Doak and Bergzorg, being an important part of the process. The lack of Morris could be a problem as, particularly against good sides, he is the glue that holds things together. Needing that defensive cover, I wonder if Carrick will go for Hackney and Howson rather than Barlaser. There may also be a place for the speed of Lathe Lath up front as an exit possibility for when we are under pressure.
Finally, I should explain why I see this game as being particularly important. We have three outcomes to this season.
1. We fall away and miss out on the battle for the playoffs. That will make for a depressing second part of the season and a summer spent working on another season in the Championship whilst coping with other teams picking at our squad.
2. We make the playoffs and do our best to go up. This will ensure an enjoyable season, whether we ultimately achieve promotion or not.
3. We are genuinely in the battle for an automatic promotion spot which will be hugely entertaining and, given our style of football, provide lots of entertainment.
Naturally, we all hope to follow path 3 but to do that we need to keep the gap to the top two as small as possible. If we lose to Burnley, we will be 9 points behind them, Sheffield United and perhaps Leeds and, although not impossible, that will be a difficult deficit to overcome. Our next two games are against Burnley and Leeds, and I would suggest that we need at least two draws to keep our options as open as possible. I think that it’s possible, but it won’t be easy.
UP THE BORO
Selwynoz
Great stuff, well done, a reasoned argument with lots of statistics to back up your views. I enjoyed reading that this morning a great start to the day and looking forward to watching the Game on TV on FRIDAY night.
i don’t think Boro3 will make an appearance on the night but hopefully a Boro win?
Thanks again it’s appreciated
OFB
What an absolutely cracking analysis Selwyn. I wouldn't, couldn't, argue with anything you have written. Brilliant. Thank you.
I am still digesting Saturday's game. Having only been able to catch the last 35 minutes or so, I wasn't a witness how we played in the first half. Certainly some of our frailties were on display in the second half, not least the cock-up that allowed Hull to fashion a very well set up and well taken goal. Different to the Blackburn game though, where we really didn't look like scoring, on Saturday that threat looked to be back.
Burnley will take to the field well aware of where we are weakest and I expect will be targeting our left back quarter. Having the right left footed cover for our left back playing will be very important. I think the concensus after Saturday is that Edmundsen is probably that man. On the right, I wonder whether the old head (Ayling) might be a better start than Dijksteel.I do agree we will need Howson to start in place of Barlasser. Otherwise, and assuming no more returning from injury, as we were on Saturday.
One thing to say is that Burnley will be very wary of this fixture. They know that on our day there are not many teams that can live with us in this league. So which Boro will it be on Friday? I suspect it will be one that is properly fired up for this game, so I don't expect we will be disappointed in our performance. Will that be enough to avoid defeat though? I really don't know. All the same, I am looking forward to a good and entertaining game of football.
Good one, @selwynoz. I think Morris has been very good for us this season so far, and his absence against a team like Burnley could be sadly missed. This is the sort of game against good opposition where Boro's recent free-scoring form would be very handy indeed. Whether we will see it is another thing!
I would not be too worried about Burnley having more possession against Boro in this match, providing Boro.can be clinical up-front when there ARE chances to score. Burnley is clearly a team which doesn't concede many chances or goals. Boro will have to take advantage of any chances on offer.
A brilliant and very well written opener, Selwyn. I don't think anyone could disagree with your analysis for which you produce a great deal of well-marshalled evidence.
I was there the last time we won at Turf Moor in 2015 when we out-passed and outclassed Burnley. The restive crowd were starting to voice their criticism of Eddie Howe, who was suffering from a rare window of managerial uncertainty. This was in vivid contrast to Tony Mowbray whose Boro side were playing with great fluency. The Burnley crowd around me were saying that Mowbray looked the far more effective manager and coach. On that particular day, he certainly did.
The last time we played at Burnley two years ago, it was a very different story. We were comprehensively beaten after Watmore had put us ahead with a great individual goal.
It was a particularly poor day for Ryan Giles who allowed his winger far too much room, this being the source of two of Burnley's four goals. A miserable afternoon for Boro ended with Akpom fluffing a late penalty.
That Burnley game unaccountably slipped my mind when computing some of Giles's mistakes in a previous post. Those eight assists are being whittled down to next to nothing on the balance sheet the more I think about it.
...maybe the PRESENCE of Morris will be missed rather than his absence!
@original-fat-bob I have read about the dancers before, but never seen them live in the UK. We even have a group in Finland according to Wikipedia. Never seen them, either.
There are relatively isolated groups in other countries, for example those in Utrecht and Helmond, Netherlands; the Arctic Morris Group of Helsinki, Finland [8] and Stockholm, Sweden; as well as in Cyprus and St Petersburg, Russia.
I suppose we should start the tradition at the Riverside, too. I think Dormo could do it, perhaps if drunken 🤣.
Up the Boro!
Love that Jarkko. Who would have thought that Morris dancing occurred anywhere but in little England. Perhaps in former colonies, but in Scandinavia. That is a surprise.
I have many times threatened to go and find a Morris Dance troupe to join, but my (Scottish) wife has made it known that should I do so, it would be grounds for divorce !
Selwyn, A top notch opener. Excellent. Statistically satisfying and posing a lot of thoughts about how it will pan out for Boro. By my reckoning the team will have to perform to the highest of standards with everyone at their best plus a little of that elusive 'rub of the green' going with us.
Will it happen? Hells bells anything could happen because we are discussing the Boro here. A clean sheet? Probably not. A low scoring draw? I have to confess that would do. A defeat? Quite probable.
But it's Boro and they have to get some practice in for Leeds.
All the best everyone.
UTB,
John
Superb work @Selwynoz.
I’m looking forward to seeing the game on TV on Friday, although I’ve not a clue which Boro to expect. A draw would probably be a good result.
Powmill - if you need a contact in the Scottish Morris Dancing world, I can probably help. It appears that one of my neighbours is a big cheese in the traditional dancing orbit and I’m sure he could get you a trial. Strangely, I was once approached by a member of Leyland Morris Men, who tried to persuade me to join them. I respectfully declined on the basis that my two left (and flat) feet weren’t what they needed at that time.
@martin-bellamy I don't know if thanking you is the right thing to do here 😉
Certainly I could well do without anything that calls my bluff with Mrs P-N !! Lets just say, for the moment I am still not fully match fit from having had my right knee replaced in May and I am scheduled to have my right knee replaced in January, so that will keep me away from the stick and bells and handkerchiefs at least till this time next year.
Besides, bowler hats take on a whole different complexion up here.
FA CUP DRAW 3rd Round live at 7:00 BBC2
HOME TO LIVERPOOL ????
Nah we want Doak to play
Home to Man UTD ?
Or the Bar Codes ???
COME ON BORO
OFB
@powmillnaemore. I have heard of two left feet but not two right knees! 😉😎
Fa cup. Home to Blackburn.
That is ok. Chance for revenge re recent defeat although the outcome will be influenced by how many fringe players each team select.
on balance I’d have preferred a lower placed Premiership team at home assuming that it would make lots of changes and so giving Boro a better chance of winning
philip of Huddersfield 👍👋
🤣@powmillnaemore. I have heard of two left feet but not two right knees! 😉😎
Maybe we should copy the trend for walking football and aim for a new slowed down version of maypole dancing. Less hopping up and down but still properly pagan.
UTB
Selwyn thank you for all the work and research in that opener. It really was very thought provoking. Statistics on possession and xg are intriguing and point us towards the picture on the field but as you illustrate don't always tell the whole story.
Somewhere beyond the possession/shots/blocks/passes completed etc figures there lies the assessment of what parts of the team are functioning best under certain conditions and combinations. A bit more about the feel of things perhaps - effective combinations such as Doak and Conway, Azaz and Lath, Hackney and Morris.
Burnley are in the position they are because they have the best defence in the league. If we are to succeed this season it seems to me we need to look at the effective combinations we can forge in defence and between defence and midfield. Winning teams have a strong spine it is said. The sooner Morris and RVB are available again the better.
UTB Chris
Thanks for the intro Selwynoz. I wonder if this might be a Brighton moment from the Karanka promotion season. They were unbeaten at home and top of the league and we went down there and won 3-0. I know it is unlikely as Burnley don't concede. Interestingly they struggled to beat Porstmouth , injury time winner, only drew at Hull and only beat Plymouth 1-0 and QPR held them 0-0 at Turf Moor. The only top 6 team they have beaten are Leeds, lost at Sunderland and surprise surprise drew 0-0 with West Brom. There leading scorer is Josh Brownhill with 6, listed as a defensive midfielder, no other player has more than 2. They also concede quite a lot of fouls, 13 per game at home , we average 8 at home and 9 away. Just noticed that the Millwall home game is on BeIn here in Oz so probably not available on the Boro website.
I haven't watched much of Burnley and so I only know about their style from what other commentators report. I wonder how they will react to conceding a goal, something that hasn't happened in their last five games. Millwall are the last team to score against them, six games ago.
However, I must say that I have more confidence in our ability to play well against a top team than against a solid defensive side who sets up to block us. Rather than the Brighton game, I'm thinking of the Feb 2023 away game at Sheffield United when we went there and won 3-1 with goals from Akpom and Archer (2) after going behind after 2 minutes. That win kept us in touch with automatic promotion - in many ways it was the highpoint of that chase - but we dropped away later. It was an even possession game with plenty of shots albeit few on target.
I hadn't noticed the Millwall game pop up on BeIn. That means that our next three games - Burnley, Leeds and Millwall - are all on BeIn and may be blocked from the website. I have subscribed to BeIn as well as the Boro site and it's turning out to have been a reasonable investment. It does also mean that I can watch the Millwall game on demand when I wake up which you can't do with the website.
I trust that you are enjoying the wet season. I remember being there once when it was 35C or more during the day and only dropped to around 30C at night with massive humidity. Time for a beer or three.
UTB
Former footballer's normal. Did yo play much? 🤣@martin-bellamy I don't know if thanking you is the right thing to do here 😉
Certainly I could well do without anything that calls my bluff with Mrs P-N !! Lets just say, for the moment I am still not fully match fit from having had my right knee replaced in May and I am scheduled to have my right knee replaced in January, so that will keep me away from the stick and bells and handkerchiefs at least till this time next year.
Besides, bowler hats take on a whole different complexion up here.
UTB!
Darragh Lenihan returned from a ten-month injury absence as he scored Middlesbrough’s winner in July's friendly victory at Gateshead.
That was at the end July, but we haven't heard much about him since. He has had obviously some setbacks with niggles and possibly some problems with the original injury, too.
Originally he suffered a serious ankle injury in September 2023, that eventually required surgery.
Has anyone any info about Leninhan now? I expected him to be back around the same time as Fry, but it is totally quiet on his inury news. He was superb when he was fit.
So any news about his recovery, anyone? Up the Boro!
Another very good opener Selwynoz and excellent analysis as usual - it certainly will be a good test to measure how close Boro are to edging their way into an automatic challenge - though defeat and a 9 point gap may prove difficult to reign in but with over 25 games left there's still time for everything to change.
If I borrow your table layout to show Burnley's last five home games, you can see they haven't conceded a goal in those games but they themselves have only scored 3 with 2 of them being penalties. Also the opposition hasn't exactly been tough either with three of the bottom 4 and the other two being in the bottom half as well (16th and 13th).
It does seem to indicate that Burnley are not the best attacking side in the league as they don't get many shots on target even at home and have only just beaten teams they should expect to beat. It will be interesting to see if a Boro attack firing on all cylinders will prove to be a different proposition and will likely be just as much a test for them as it will be for us
Last 5 Home Games - Shots on target in brackets
| • Burnley 1 - 0 Coventry | Burnley 53% possession, 12 (3) shots to 3 (1) |
| • Burnley 1 - 0 Swansea | Burnley 52% possession, 20 (7) shots to 9 (4) |
| • Burnley 0 - 0 QPR | Burnley 75% possession, 22 (4) shots to 2 (0) |
| • Burnley 0 - 0 Preston | Burnley 60% possession, 9 (1) shots to 9 (2) |
| • Burnley 1 - 0 Plymouth | Burnley 49% possession, 11 (3) shots to 7 (0) |
@jarkko - I'll have you know, my young Finnish friend, that alcohol hasn't passed my lips for some 11 days since Friday 22nd November, so the chances these days of seeing me in a less-than-sober state are vanishingly small! No major reason behind it, just a feeling that at Christmas and New Year I may find myself in such a position by reason of the Festivities that alcohol just MIGHT be expected to be consumed at greater than normal levels. Might as well get in tip-top condition for the carnage to come. That's not to say that I won't have a glass or two of wine if I go out as expected on Wednesday: it's not a "beer ban" but just a rest. I will make a decision at the time. Might equally be a slimline tonic!
The short term abstention from alcohol was assisted by the fact that, on returning as quickly as possible to the Slaughtered Stoat following the Boro v Blackburn Rovers game on 27th November to dissect the game over a drink or two, my mate and I were horrified to see the pub door locked and the lights out. My mate got there before me, probably about 10.20pm with my car following up 5 minutes later, so we were WELL within normal pub hours. I haven't fully recovered from the shock yet. Very distressing.
I go camping most, not all, weekends between March/April and October, and one of our "regulars" who goes out with us is a member of a Morris Dancing "Side". Just by coincidence the occasions on which they perform tend to be at a festivals or Village Show events or just outside a pub where drinks are available. I've never really understood why Morris Dancing is so disregarded in recent years in England despite its history going back hundreds of years. Scottish Country Dancing or dancing at cultural events like the Mela held in Middlesbrough seem to avoid the same level of disparagement.
I hear that Manchester United already requires Season Ticket holders to attend a certain number of games or the supporters may lose their seat (even though they've paid for it!) and that concessions for children and pensioners are being/have been removed. No doubt the club feels it can sell the ground out at full price so why worry if some elderly supporters can no longer afford a ticket and why should there be any concern about encouraging some of the younger generation to pick up the football habit? Some of the "big clubs" receive such sums from the TV broadcasting rights and from sponsorship, let alone the funds available to their bilionaire or State Owners, that it is a wonder they feel the need to encourage old fashioned bums-one-seats supporters any longer.
It was interesting to hear about your abstentions from Alcohol these past weeks as I also have given up the Demon Booze some three months past.
Although Mrs OFB has partaken of a hearty red or two over a meal not one drop has passed over my lips.
I would like to say that it was due to a new health regime vigorously taken up by myself, alas it was due to the prescribed medications which would interact with Alcohol and discretion being the better part of valour I’ve chosen not to drink !
OFB
@forever-dormo Anyway, I hope to see you dancing when Aidan Morris scores the next time. Sober or after a drink or two. Up the Boro!
Any Boro fan who wishes to glimpse behind the curtain to discover a little about the internal dynamics, tensions and politics of the club could do worse than read between the lines of some of Craig Johns' articles.
It's not too difficult a task. His most recent piece today is about what his headline proclaims as "the recruitment team's transfer masterstroke".
This little piece of headline sycophancy is a quid quo pro for the unattributable briefing given by its source. The name of Kieron Scott doesn't appear anywhere in the story but these are his views masquerading as a product of independent journalism.
Actually any reader coming to that headline might reasonably ponder on what might qualify as the club's most recent transfer master stroke. A huge majority, I would guess, would say it was the signing of Ben Doak. Others might plump for George Edmundson.
They would be wrong. Those signings, of course, were secured via the contacts, influence and reputation of Michael Carrick.This article is not concerned with those
No, the transfer masterstroke that the article has in mind is that of Tommy Conway.
You will recall that Scott identified Conway's signing as one that had been meticulously planned by the recruitment team over an 18 month period, and for that reason the player should be playing and not sitting on the bench.
Now I like Conway. He has been a good signing and his performance against Hull was his best of the season. He played well at Norwich but his penalty miss cost us two points, and there have been some ineffectual games too. But he and Latte Lath are a formidable attacking force in the Championship. Carrick's way of picking and playing them at the moment seems about right.
However the article expresses the view that Latte Lath might well leave in January, that Coburn's injury shows how prescient his loan to Millwall was (though it did not look that way when Latte Lath looked as though he might be leaving at the eleventh hour), and that we have adequate striker cover with (a familiar Scott trope) Forss and Burgzorg.
In an earlier article after the Blackburn game Johns wrote a piece which carried an extended defence of Hamilton's much criticised performance (apparently there was no expectation that he would be ready for first team selection until late into the season), indicated the Giles was very much back on to the Boro's radar, and that Gilbert would probably be loaned out. Again there was no source cited for these ideas, but they were clearly the result of another unattributed briefing.
This is a thoroughly disreputable process which takes the public and the fans for fools. It allows those in authority to pass off their self-interested views and ideas as the product of independent journalism. And it demeans and compromises journalistic standards by failing to identify the sources of a story and reduces journalism to being the mere repository of unfiltered PR material.
It's an "I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine" relationship carried out in full view of the public.
The key point to make is that these manoeuvres are not being carried out to promote the Boro, but to promote the recruitment staff and Scott in particular. Their impact within the club as a whole cannot be anything other than divisive
There will, no doubt be another episode coming our way soon
@lenmasterman A most astute reading of affairs. Very well posted sir.
Leeds have a similar rule. If a season ticket holder does not utilise their ticket 80% of the home games they will not be asked to renew the following season. They do have a season ticket waiting list of 27000. It will be interesting if we do go up as to what ticketing model we use. Will we sell as many season tickets as we can, or have a limit on season tickets and have some available for match day sales. This is what Ipswich have done. They have 21000 season tickets and the other home game tickets are sold to members in a ballot.
@lenmasterman Wow. That’s quite an expose and indictment of Craig Johns and Kieron Scott. Let’s see how it all plays out.