The business end. Crunch time. The home straight. Squeaky bum time.
After Boro took their home form on the road with a 0-0 battering of Blackburn, we’re now into at least one of that lot with just seven season-defining matches left. The first of which is a big one, folks: Millwall at home on Good Friday, and yet another 12.30pm kick-off.
Failure to beat Rovers briefly sent Teesside into meltdown, with the infection even spreading across the diaspora to DiasBoro!
I haven’t lived in the North East for a couple of decades but scanning through the various tweets, blogs and comments in the aftermath of this latest letdown was reminiscent of the ever hyperbolic post-match phone-ins on Century Radio back in the day as Boro fans routinely made the effort to call in and dismiss their team’s chances of achieving anything. Ever. Great days!
This time around, criticisms ranged from on-field to “upstairs”, with suggestions of not wanting promotion anyway and a widespread bemoaning of “sideways” passing as if the opposition haven’t had everyone behind the ball and Boro’s players have been turning down the forward pass for some reason. Our chances are gone. We might even be the worst team in the league right now!
Of course, not winning matches you’ve dominated is very frustrating. Especially when it’s the third or fourth or fifth time in recent weeks. Potentially throwing away the chance of promotion is doubly frustrating. But isn’t the truth that to be in second place is a massive overachievement with the current squad - one which consists of a decent defence and a good centre midfield but no real attack?
We all know that many on this blog predicted a midtable finish at best. Sure, that was before the club signed a host of new attacking options and loan players but still, this is not a blog full of clueless contributors. There is vast experience amongst us, a wealth of shared Boro knowledge that knows what good looks like. This squad did not look automatic-promotion-good. It didn’t even look playoff worthy if we’re honest.
And yet here we are. A few solid signings at the back, an unexpected double dose of the new manager bounce and then the continued efforts of the excellent Kim Hellberg, and we find ourselves the envy of the entire EFL, with the sole exception of perennial nemesis, Coventry City.
Would it be a missed opportunity if we don’t go up? In the end, absolutely yes. Having somehow fashioned the opportunity, more could have been done to secure it but as it is, it’s harsh to blame average Championship forwards for not being top Championship forwards. Recruitment has let us down in that regard but we should balance that by stating that, in other areas of the pitch, the same department has seriously delivered.
For my part, I didn’t remotely expect to be in the hunt for automatic promotion this season and to be there, especially whilst trying to play progressive, possession-based football under a promising young Head Coach, means I am thoroughly enjoying it. The position we’ve manufactured means that every match matters and there’s that beautiful, nervous tension before each encounter. I love it.
That doesn’t mean we can’t be frustrated. I was actually quite angry at half time against Blackburn. But being annoyed at not destroying the opposition is a sure sign of how well we’re doing overall.
Now we have that magical nervous tension for seven more massive matches – and hopefully no more – to close out what will have been a surprise season for the ages.
The first of those crucial encounters is at home to promotion rivals, Millwall. The Lions arrive at The Riverside just two points behind the Boro, with only Ipswich separating the sides.
If you wanted some good news on Millwall’s form, it might be better to look away now. Over the last six matches, Millwall sit fourth with four wins. From the last ten, they’re still fourth with six wins. Since Hellberg took over in late November? Oh-oh, they’re third with 44pts – three more than Boro with only Ipswich (gulp) and Norwich ahead on 45pts.
Maybe their away record will offer a glimmer? Nope, they’d be fourth over the season there too.
There’s no getting around it. Millwall are worthy promotion challengers.
I have found one little snippet. Friday’s “six pointer” (sorry, Ken) is the last of Millwall’s encounters against the top three this season. In their previous five attempts, their record is W0 D2 L3 G2 GA10.
That, of course, includes the 3-0 drubbing Rob Edwards’ Boro gave them at The Den all the way back in August when Hackney, Jones and then Burgzorg first gave notice that this might be an interesting season after all.
Perhaps the most noticeable difference between the top three and Millwall is in the Goal Difference column. Whilst Boro, Ipswich and Coventry have GDs in excess of 20 – well in excess in Coventry’s case – Millwall appear to have ground out tighter victories leading to a positive goal difference of just nine.
In terms of goals scored, only Watford (50) and Norwich (52) in the top half have managed fewer than Millwall’s 53. The Lions do have the league’s fourth best defence with 44 conceded, bettered only by that top three again.
Those 53 goals have been reasonably well spread, with them having a three-way tie for club top scorer on eight: Femi Azeez, Mihailo Ivanovic and – you guessed it – Josh Coburn.
Sigh. Whilst Boro’s recruitment team were scouring European second divisions over the summer for the next big-profit centre forward, we let one go, didn’t we? Though his injury record was always a bit of a concern for one so young, does anyone out there NOT believe we’d have been better off just keeping Josh Coburn? It’s not even hindsight, there were plenty bemoaning his sale at the time. What a shame. And a what a boost for promotion rival, even if we didn’t see that part coming. We all know how football goes, so I won’t even bother saying it on this occasion!
In terms of playing styles, predictably this appears to be the classic clash of styles. Boro the pass and move team, Millwall as the direct opponent. WhoScored notes Millwall’s style as long ball, plenty of crosses and aggressive. Well I never….
So, this is it now. Time to show what you’re made of. Seven huge games to finish the regular season starting with a monster home match against Millwall. A win would seriously dent The Lions hopes and strengthen our own. Anything else would likely leave us calling the Century phone-in again.
12.30pm on Good Friday. I really do hope it is indeed, a good Friday.
Absolutely brilliant, thank you Andy. An enjoyable read and one with much hope albeit tinged with caution, based upon the statistics which back up Millwall’s impressive season.
Nevertheless, we are ahead of them on merit and if we can find one of the performances we are capable of producing, then we should come out on top; it won’t be easy as AN is a very capable manager who will come with a plan and his squad well drilled and we may have some key players missing.
We will need to be at our best defensively and ensure that we are watertight when dealing with their dead ball situations.
A tight affair where a partisan home crowd will hopefully contribute to see us over the line. Boro 1-0 Millwall. CoB 😎
Like Ayling signs a new one year contract:
https://www.mfc.co.uk/news/2026/march/30/luke-ayling-signs-new-contract/ 😎
Fantastic Andy. It’ll be tight, that’s for sure, but we’ve got to prevail - three points and we’ll all be smiling.
Fantastic Headliner Andy, well delivered, including words of warning that Millwall are where they are on merit.
Alex Neil is a good Coach, nor everybody’s cup of tea, but he certainly has produced a team better than the parts on offer.
One of our own, although he is from Richmond I believe, AN wanted him even though he had his injuries issues. Maybe he saw something that our medical staff didn’t. He can be a handful and certainly offers something that Boro do not have.
There can be no argument, that as you say Andy, the majority on here thought it would be an uneventful season. However it has been a very good season, albeit frustrating, certainly of late, where if we had just performed reasonably, we would have had one foot in the EPL.
My main gripe is still with Mr Scott and the Recruitment Team. Some very good acquisitions, BUT over the last two seasons some very poor picks and also some evident failures in finding the gems to polish. We have spent a reasonable amount of money on forward players and one could argue that not even one good Championship level forward has been purchased. I won’t mention last season’s loan centre forward.
Ultimately, we can only hope Hellberg and the players can get the train going full stream ahead for the last seven games.
Nobody seems to have mentioned the fact that the match is being shown live on ITV1, for which I, for one, as a non-Sky or any other satellite/streaming service subscriber, am extremely grateful. 😉
Fabulous opener Andy, thank you
I don't really think there is anything more to add.
There will be a big crowd, so I hope the crowd are buoyant from the start and are vociferously behind the team from the off. We need that 12th man home and away now.
CoB
How good would an early goal be on Friday?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/ce3dq501573o
And what about the fans of Championship clubs who are arguably even more messed about?
@martin-bellamy. Hopefully for Boro. 🤣🤣
@stircrazy. Yes that article lays it all open. Sky have given the pot of gold and now everyone is dancing to their tune.
Thanks for that - I hadn’t picked up on that. Likewise I do not have Sky et al so a rare treat.
I had been debating with myself whether to make the trip up although based on my last game and some of the recent results, I had decided that I would spare myself the wrath of Mrs BBD and stay at home!
I can now sit in front of the TV with a lunch time drink rather than constantly looking at the BBC web site whilst attacking the garden!
A great opener Andy thank you. Some interesting stats and perhaps ones that we would rather not have seen!
Millwall can’t afford to sit back since a draw doesn’t help them one iota in the scheme of things. That will hopefully mean an open game which certainly suits our style of play although I do sometimes have concerns about our defence.
it is nailed on that Josh Coburn will score so I am predicting Boro to roar back to winning ways with 3-1 lion taming performance!
How good would an early goal be on Friday?
Very! Just hope that is for Boro.
i must admit to being just a tad nervous about Friday and will be warning Mrs BBD that there may be some unsuitable language coming from the lounge during the game!
I would agree that the Championship teams are arguably messed about more. IIRC earlier this season Boro went quite a while without a 3pm Saturday KO.
And this Easter is pretty bad as well with the Monday game at 1730 - still on the positive side it gives the players a longer recovery time, especially with the traveling time.
Spare a thought for Portsmouth who are away to Norwich at. 1500 on Friday followed by a home game on Monday at 1230
Got to agree with BBD in that I think Coburn is nailed on to score
We have not had a 3pm Saturday kick off away this year. Our last one was Bristol City away before Christmas, and we won't have another this season as Ipswich is on the Sunday and the last game at Wrexham kicks off at 12:30 as do all the games.
Thanks for a brilliant starter, Andy. As ever, you’ve hit all the nails on the head, covering all the key points of Friday’s game and Boro’s situation with your usual verve. Fine writing.
Millwall’s strong record doesn’t make encouraging reading, does it? I think I put Boro down to win this one in the Exmil challenge, but that was before Blackburn. I’m struggling right now to see where we get a win from, to be honest, especially as it will likely very much depend on what side we’re able to put out. What news from Boro on Hackney and Whittaker, for instance? In what shape and with what degree of exhaustion will Conway, Strelec, Browne, McGree and Morris arrive back from their international duties and travel?
On the other hand, our luck and our poor form have to improve at some point. We all very much hope that this will be the game in which they do, of course. I’m expecting a challenging game. Let’s hope our fans get right behind the lads as they did at Blackburn. We’ll need them. Everything crossed.
Thanks for that - I hadn’t picked up on that. Likewise I do not have Sky et al so a rare treat.
I had been debating with myself whether to make the trip up although based on my last game and some of the recent results, I had decided that I would spare myself the wrath of Mrs BBD and stay at home!
I can now sit in front of the TV with a lunch time drink rather than constantly looking at the BBC web site whilst attacking the garden!
Glad to have been of service, BBD. I suspect that I'll be doing much the same. 😉
Thank you for your excellent introduction Andy.
Two good teams who are outperforming expectations: in both cases based on fairly parsimonious defences. Looks like a 0-0 draw to me.
UTB
Socceroos currently playing Curacao both McGree and Hansen on the bench and not involved so far. I would much prefer it if they were on a plane bound for the UK.
Unfortunately Mcgree on in the 66th minute and immediately provides an assist with a great cross.
Andy,
What Clive and powmill both said. Your ability to cover all the important points for Friday's game and in such a stylish fashion make your intros such a pleasure to read. Sincere thanks as ever.
Is there anyone out there who does NOT believe that we would have been better off hanging on to Coburn ? you ask rhetorically. I doubt it.
I can think of at least five qualities that the young man possesses that we have desperately needed all season.
1 A target man up front. Someone who can hold up the ball and lay it off to his team mates. The importance of this quality to any attack is attested to in the case of Brian Clough by the significance he placed upon John O' Hare, a player he took with him from Sunderland to Derby to Leeds and then Forest. O'Hare had no pace or height, covered little ground, and was not a prolific goal scorer. He wasn't a player who was especially highly regarded within the game. Except by Clough. Because if you played the ball up to him from defence, it stuck to him like glue. He possessed a low centre of gravity and immaculate control, so that no matter how the ball came to him or how brutally he was hacked or overpowered by a centre half you could rely on him not to give the ball away.
In bringing up his own son Nigel, Cloughie taught him the the importance of those very skills, so that when the time came Nigel became the most successful inheritor of O'Hare's role at Forest , and was able to carve out for himself a very successful career despite lacking the physical attributes of a typical striker.
I am not claiming that Josh is in the O'Hare or young Clough league, but his physical presence and ball control make him much more difficult to knock off the ball than any of our current crop of forwards.
2 Height: the lack of which in our forwards has been a crippling disadvantage all season. This is why we have to play so much tippy-tappy football, endlessly recycling the ball. The conventional centre from open play is so unlikely to produce a positive outcome that it has all but disappeared from our game. There has been no one amongst our forwards or midfielders who can easily be picked out.
3 Aerial ability. Obviously related to height but worthy of separate consideration because so few of our goals are scored with headers, particularly by our forwards. It is also the combination of our lack of height and aerial ability that makes us so useless at set pieces. We have been both notoriously unable to exploit our own and particularly vulnerable in defending the opposition's. Even the dogs in the street know that Millwall are likely to have little trouble in defending our corners, free kicks and throw-ins . And that their best chance of defeating us lies in exploiting our weaknesses in precisely those areas.
And, of course that Coburn is going to be an essential weapon to be used against us in both of those predictable situations
4 Physical Presence: As Josh has filled out from his beanpole youth he has developed a real relish for the more physical aspects of his role. He had already shown this part of his game for us with his fighting performance in our 0-4 win at Sunderland, and his final game for us in the cup win at Leeds. But at Millwall the club, manager and supporters demand that their team are physically imposing and even intimidating, particularly at home, and Josh has been well up to the mark in this respect.
By contrast if there is one common weakness linking together the assembly line of Scott's front line signings over the recent past it lies in their failure to measure up to the physical demands of the Championship, and, with the exception of Tommy Conway, their lack of appetite and desire to win their physical battles.
5. And last, but not least, Goalscoring...
Joss first came to our attention in the Academy as a young striker playing against much older lads because of his ability to put the ball in the back of the net. He has never lost that ability, not only to hammer the ball home as he has done for Millwall in the last few games, and as he did most memorably for us against Spurs, but that instinct possessed by all natural strikers to be in the right place at the right time. Given the number of chances that we have created this season it's hard to believe that Josh would not have taken significantly more of them than our current crop has managed and that we would not be sitting more comfortably in the league
And if you want a 6th, Joss was one of our own, heartbroken at being forced out of the club. I'll never forget that interview after the Leeds win when he was almost in tears when confronted by the interviewer that it looked like being his last game for the club before he went on loan to Millwall.
Nor will I easily forgive the skulduggery that saw Joss heartlessly disposed of in the managerial interregnum before Rob Edwards' had even arrived to assess the abilities of a young striker who would have been a perfect fit for his preferred way of playing
I rest my case. But just watch. Given my predictive abilities, do not be a bit surprised if Joss misses a couple of sitters and has a stinker on Friday, Whittaker, Conway and Strelec score a brace apiece, Boro put all of our doubts to rest and our head of recruitment is given a pay rise and an extended contract.
I'll actually go for a 1-0 win
Needless to say, Len, I agree with all of that!
Thank you - and to everyone - for the kind words re the preview.
@lenmasterman I understand where you’re coming from but, if I may, I’d beg to differ a little. I think JC moving away from MFC has done two things.
Firstly, the young man has had to grow up a bit - his first footballing stint away from home and one that took him into the Lion’s den no less, has forced him to come out from under Boro’s shadow. He’s still prone to injury but looks to have filled out a bit as he’s got a little older - all the better to withstand the rigours of the Championship.
Secondly, I think his stock may have risen amongst Boro supporters simply because he’s not here any more and his replacements have flattered to deceive. I was never a massive fan, but I’m happy to accept that he’d have been a different option up front. However, if he’d always played for, say, Stoke, would we have been delighted if Scott had signed him ahead of Strelec? I’m not so sure…
An exceptional starter there, Andy. Well done and much appreciated.
I have to say that Millwall have been a bigger surprise than Boro this season. I have expected them to drop off the race ever since early December. But they have even improved the longer season has gone on. I hope they make it to the playoffs this season. They have played well.
About Coburn, I am more thinking like Martin B in here. I am glad he went to Millwall and has been successful over there. I don't think he would have played much at Boro - especially since Kim Hellberg arrived. His teams have never really played with a typical number nine - especially a big centre forward in the old English type.
KH even said his teams won't ever concentrate on corners and freekicks. So I am happy that Josh got a transfer to a team where he can flourish. And rather than sitting on the bench at Boro.
A tricky match on Good Friday, me thinks. I hope to see a Boro3 for a change. Now when Bob seems to be up and running (or at least writing!). Up the Boro!
Andy
A great preview for the game which sets it up nicely for all DIASBORIANS who are eagerly awaiting this fixture.
it still
oops like we are going to have a depleted team but hopefully our Hellball football will be enough to win the game.
i heard on the grapevine from a good source that Hackney is not expected to play again this season ! I don’t know if this is a rumour to obfuscate the planning of our opponents or if it’s true but we’ll shortly find out!
Thamks again Andy appreciate your work !
OFB