Right. This is it.
After Boro concluded the regular season with a somewhat predictable draw at home to Coventry, the time has finally come for the much anticipated playoff semi-finals and, errr, Coventry again: Sunday 14th May, kick-off 12pm.
Boro controlled much of the game on Bank Holiday Monday with 73% possession and almost 500 more passes than the visitors, yet didn’t create a great deal and remained a little below par overall. Coventry’s game plan was basic in keeping players behind the ball and conceding possession, then looking to pounce on any wayward passes and spring a quick and direct counter via the dangerous Viktor Gyokeres.
Boro’s tempo was too slow in the first half and too many passes were misplaced but they did pick it up as the game progressed and looked the more likely to nick a winner before safety-first subs disrupted the flow.
In the end, the big questions about where exactly Boro are as we head into the playoffs remain unanswered – have the injuries blunted Boro or have we been playing slightly within ourselves? We’ll surely find out on Sunday lunchtime.
The Sky Blues enter the semis on the back of a seven game unbeaten run, winning three. Two of those three victories came at the CBS Arena - against strugglers Reading (2-1) and Birmingham City (2-0) - where they have averaged 1.74pts/game over the season.
Mark Robins’ men are a consistent side with the sixth best home record in the division and the seventh best away record (Boro third at home, ninth away) whilst they are the division’s seventh best attack with 58 goals scored (Boro second) and fourth best defence with 46 against (Boro twelfth).
It’s hard to imagine that Monday’s encounter offers too much insight into how this first leg of the playoffs will play out. We can expect both sides to remain in their customary shape of 4-2-3-1 for Boro and 3-5-2 for Coventry but surely the hosts will be keen to take an advantage into Wednesday night’s second leg and therefore playing solely on the counter might be a little too restrictive for them. Of course, if they do come out to play, that will arguably suit Boro better, so perhaps they will play a cagey game once more after all.
Boro’s main defensive weakness is in managing the transition after we’ve lost the ball. All season, including pre-Carrick, we’ve struggled to keep the ball out of our net when we’re turned over. We’re an open side that struggles to get compact quickly whilst too often making non-committal, leg-dangly sort of tackles as we desperately try to get in shape. Exploiting this, along with targeting set pieces, will surely be Coventry’s game plan and there could be a case for restoring Anfernee Dijksteel at right back for his extra pace and height in dealing with long balls into the channels.
Whether Carrick opts to do so may depend on whether Ramsey or Forss make an unlikely return. Certainly with the latter, the combination with Tommy Smith has been cohesive, which sadly does not appear to be the case with, alas, Smith and Jones.
Regardless of who is fit to play, it is perhaps Jones who is most likely to drop out of Boro’s XI. The lightening quick wide man has plenty to offer on his day but unfortunately he remains a misfit in Carrick’s more cultured midfield, where positioning, technical ability and interplay trump raw pace and individual trickery.
Even if Howson remains sidelined, there must be a temptation for Carrick to move Hackney further forward once more as he fits the description of the role more snugly than Jones and did a very good job of it for a couple of games last month. Breaking down Coventry’s back three isn’t the easiest task but with a fluid front four of McGree, Hackney, Akpom and Archer, you’d have to give Boro a better chance than most.
That would, of course, mean one or both of Mowatt and Barlaser starting. Both are more physical and experienced players than Hackney but perhaps don’t quite have the same eye for a pass. Either way, if Boro are to rediscover their full attacking prowess then playing the players that best fit the roles feels like the optimum strategy and that might just mean a return to the bench for Jones, who can then use his explosive pace to maximum effect later in the game.
At present, there is no clear expectation that any of the injured Fry, Howson, Ramsey or Forss will return in time so we’d all better hope that Boro’s recent dip has been more about conservation than casualties. I suspect there’s been a little of both at play but still firmly believe that Boro’s best is the benchmark for these playoffs. The bookies agree.
They say you can’t win the tie in the first leg but you can lose it, so as long as it’s game on for Wednesday night, we’ll take it.
Come on Boro. Please.
Thanks Andy a great preview and summing up of where we are and hopefully there are another two previews to come!
One being the second semi final at the Riverside and then ultimately(please!) the final at Wembley 👏👌👌👌.
Although Mowatt seems to be disciplined in the midfield I must admit I do prefer Barlaser who does have a long range of passing skills.
Im confident that Forss will be fit and that Jones will be dropped to the bench. I’ve noticed that Jones doesn’t take players on like he used to and it could be he is playing to instructions not to leave the right flank exposed. I also think that Jones is still inexperienced and has not developed the tactical nous to be a great player yet, although hopefully he will be eventually.
I never thought we would miss Howson so much and I saw him at the ground on Monday with his family and he looked all right to me! Just joking 🙃 as there is a big difference to walking around and actually playing football competitively!
Boro conceded a sloppy goal and whilst the defence didn’t get a good tackle in and the ball ran loose and kindly for them to score I thought Steffen could have saved it. That’s the trouble with keepers you always think they should make saves. Have a look at the replay again and see what I mean.
Hackney was playing within himself but let’s not forget there is a Wembley appearance at stake and any rash fouls and sending offs could make a big difference to his career stats.
Akpom was quite quiet by his standards on Monday and I do feel that the players were told to do just enough.
Well I’m quite excited and at the same time apprehensive about this one….
Ill go for 1-1
Thanks Again Andy appreciated all your efforts this season you’ve really been outstanding with your previews and deserve all our Diasborian thanks 👏👏
OFB
The New York of all posts, so good he posted it twice 😉
.... I see you have deleted the duplicate before I posted that above 🙄
Thanks Again Andy appreciated all your efforts this season you’ve really been outstanding with your previews and deserve all our Diasborian thanks 👏👏
OFB
Much appreciated OFB and thanks also for your sterling work throughout the season - always a pleasure to read your pre-match thoughts.
Thanks also to all other Diasborians for the likes and very generous comments over the season.
Another excellent opener Andy, hopefully yourself and OFB will have one more each to write, let’s hope the rumour I posted the other day about Howson and Forss being available for the playoffs is correct, did anyone notice Forss walking around the pitch on Monday 🤔.
Come on BORO.
Great Headliner Andy. Many thanks for your sterling work.
I would not even dare predict any outcomes of our upcoming games.
The stats I posted the other day concern me, unless MC can get players back to their previous levels.
So to add to your thoughts and comments, a link to a discussion using OPTA stats
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/05/who-will-win-the-championship-play-offs-2022-23/
Thanks for sharing that link Pedro. It makes an interesting read. Just how I would like things to pan out, us past Coventry and Luton past Sunderland with Luton being favorites at Wembley, just so we start as underdogs, ready to prove a point!
Another excellent opener, Andy.
Thanks to you and Bob for the high quality background pieces you have both produced all season to keep us so well informed.
Unlike Malcolm or Philip I wasn't at all nervous about our dead rubber game last Monday, and was happy to leave the worrying to the supporters of the many other clubs on tenterhooks as their fortunes ebbed and flowed throughout the afternoon.
I'm not particularly concerned about the Coventry games either. I think that we have better quality in terms of both our players and our coaches. Luck should not play too great a role as we have two legs to put things right, and we possess the major advantage of playing the final game at home in front of a capacity crowd roaring us on. We also have an extra half hour should we be unable to complete the job over the final 90 minutes.
Of course, the games are always ours to lose, but the cards seem to me to be stacked in our favour.
I'd be much more nervous were I supporting Coventry.
I just wonder whether we might go with a tighter defensive formation for the first leg with Mowatt sitting in front of the back four.
Giles remains an enigma to me. He is both our most productive forward in terms of assists, and our greatest defensive weakness.
He very nearly gave Coventry a dream start with a basic error, his embarrassment saved only by an outstanding stop from Steffen.
He was rarely to be seen when Coventry managed to outnumber us on the break, and when they scored the opening goal he wasn't even sprinting back.
It's something we have seen game after game. Against both Norwich and Bristol City in recent games his errors lead directly to goals.
Yet you have to feel sorry for the lad because he is so talented and the creator of so many of our goals at the other end of the pitch.
When he receives the ball his default position is generally to play the ball back. His body positioning and whole demeanour tell you that he will be recycling it, so that for much of the game he can be a peripheral figure.
He sparks into life when the space has been created for him to get in a cross, but he has the pace and dribbling skills to be much more proactive than he is. I remember one recent game when he picked up the ball from a deep position and moving inside beat man after man just failing to score with his final touch. It was inspiring to witness, but not something he has since repeated.
It's a commonplace now that the Boro can be potent in attack but are continually being let down by their defensive frailties. The symbiotic relationship between those two things has also frequently been noted, not least on this blog.
Exciting attacking players like Ramsey, Hackney, McGree and Ackpom can frequently give the ball away leaving our back four exposed. Steffen takes too many risks for some in playing out from the back, but the benefits accrue from the creation of more space around the pitch.
But nowhere can this symbiosis be seen more clearly than in the figure of Giles. He is essential to our attack; a liability at the back.
If we do adopt a more defensive approach at Coventry then Bola must surely come into contention at left back. But can we or should we sacrifice Giles on the altar of a safety-first approach in the first leg ?
I don't see it myself, but I'm just glad that solving this particular conundrum is beyond my pay grade.
What is for certain is that playing Giles as a defender cannot survive into the Premier League should we get there. We would be torn to shreds on a weekly basis as Brighton have already so dramatically demonstrated.
Giles is a talented young player and a model professional who is doing what is demanded of him to the best of his abilities. But he is a square peg in his current defensive role and would benefit enormously from being released from it.
Len,
The answer for me is quite straightforward - Giles has to play. Our strength, the asset that only Burnley have bettered (and they weren’t hamstrung by a torrid couple of months at the start of the season), is scoring goals and, as you say, Giles is key to that.
We must play to our strengths. We can always sub Bola on later in the game to protect a lead but we’re much less likely to be leading without him in my view.
Ideally we can find a way to strengthen the defence without overly diminishing the attack.
As mentioned, if Forss isn’t ready, then I would push Hackney forward in place of Jones and play Mowatt or Barlaser - maybe Mowatt for the away leg as he’s a little better defensively as you mentioned. Hopefully Howson is fit to partner him but if not, Barlaser is adequate and a good passer.
I think I would also play Dijksteel. Not only is he our quickest defender and one of our best in the sort of one-on-one situations we find ourselves in when countered, I think he played his best football for us when on the right of a back three, which is where we could position him when in possession.
Without the ball, he would cover right back but when we have it, Giles pushes forward on the left and Dijksteel could stay back and form a back three with the centre halves.
I think that that extra cover, plus Mowatt and Howson ahead of them, would provide a better balance without sacrificing one of our most potent avenues to goal.
I agree that Giles is key to our left hand sided attack but that’s based on him delivering pinpoint fast crosses into the defensive no man’s land. I hope that he’s working hard on his technique because he hasn’t been as deadly in the latter part of the season.
UTB
To continue the discussion above about Ryan Giles, this is what he said in the Echo: "I’ve enjoyed it, and obviously the role has been a bit of a free one up and down the line. I’ve been involved a lot, so that’s been great for me. I’ve been playing with fantastic players as well, which I think has brought the best out of me."
I think we play as instructed by Carrick and Woodgate. What Len wrote above aboutGiles, I could say the same about McNair, too. He lost the ball in Coventry's half on Monday, he was then not back in time in our box, and they scored their only goal.
We definately play a different ball game compared to say Pulis or Warnock. We do concede too many goals, but we usually score more and the play is a joy to watch. I would rather watch this than PulisBall. Up the Boro!
I reminded of Steaua and McClaren throwing on four forwards with Stewart Downing at left back, flinging crosses into the box.
It’s not the same quality but when we have Archer, Akpom and Forss playing with Giles at left back, it’s not a million miles away except that it’s minute one and we’re not three down!
I think there are some similarities between Giles and Downing but Stewie would only have been trusted at left back in emergencies. A sure sign of just how attacking this Boro team is.
Watford keep up their record of appointing new managers every quater of a year 🤣.
Watford have appointed former Barnsley and West Brom boss Valerien Ismael as their new head coach.
The 47-year-old replaces Chris Wilder, appointed in March on a short-term deal through to the end of the season.
Ismael is Watford's 10th head coach since 2018 and seventh since the end of the 2020-21 season.
Boy, it is never dull in the Watford dug out. Up the Boro,!
Great opener again Andy, many thanks.
I agree we must play to our strengths and despite his defensive failings Giles has to start.
As regards right back, I have to disagree about Dijksteel as I don’t see him as strong defensively as Smith; Smith’s performances have not been as good of late but looking at his performances overall I believe he is an unsung hero and his experience in tense tight games will be much needed.
Yes Dijksteel is quicker and offers options going forward but his game time has been limited, he is also prone to defensive blunders as per QPR where he lost the ball in their half, tracked their player all the way to our box without getting in a tackle and then let them score.
In the absence of Howson I think your suggestions regarding Hackney, Mowatt and Barlaser are spot on. If Forss is available then he starts with Hackney, Mowatt, and McGree.
I have gone for 2-1 in the Exmil Challenge and can’t see past a Coventry win unless we can play as we did pre the International break; I truly hope I am wrong.
I am not sure if I will get to watch the game on Sunday as we will be on our last leg of our UK tour, in Portsmouth visiting the kids and grandchildren, before returning to Spain on Monday. I may have to watch the recording of the game whilst waiting for our flight home. 😎
@k-p-in-spain I will be back from Spain and Barcelona on Saturday night. So just in time for Sunday's big match 😊. UTB!
Based on the performances since Michael Carrick became manager, l agree that Boro WOULD and SHOULD win the playoffs, but based on current form Boro have little chance of even reaching the final. It won’t be easy to suddenly find the form that so enthralled the Boro faithful a few weeks ago. I’d be delighted if Boro draw with Coventry on Sunday but I feel that any defeat will end the season. Conversely even a win by a single goal won’t guarantee progress to Wembley. As I’ve mentioned before I can’t see the reason for two legged semifinals; it appears to negate the whole reason for League matches where all leagues outside of the three main leagues all schedule a one-off semifinal match with the higher placed team having home advantage.
“As I’ve mentioned before I can’t see the reason for two legged semifinals;”
It is clearly down to Sky’s agenda and for no other reason; EFL being dictated to. 😎
@jarkko. Hope it was not all work as Barcelona is a great city to visit. We have been on numerous occasions and still like to go back. 😎
Good post KP. By the way I also went for a Coventry 2-1 Boro on Sunday.
Regards Smith v Dijksteel, it’s undeniable that Smith has more experience and more minutes in his legs. Clearly Carrick prefers him and who am I to argue?
And yet I will!
To my mind, Smith is a really steady hand. Consistent, hard working, rarely lets you down. He’s the sort of player Warnock loved - the reliable 7 out 10 performer week after week and he brings some often undervalued leadership skills to the back line / right flank too.
Dijksteel is a much more talented footballer in my view. Quicker, stronger, technically better and a better one-on-one defender. His problem is Smith’s strength: consistency.
Smith will rarely, if ever, trouble the Man of the Match awards but equally he will rarely cost you a goal. Djiksteel has been my Man of the Match on several occasions in the past but he does throw in a howler every once in a while.
His performance ceiling is higher for me but you’re a little less certain of what you’re going to get from him as opposed to Smith.
We haven’t seen enough of Anfernee under Carrick in my opinion. He could absolutely flourish in an environment where individuals aren’t castigated for mistakes.
@andy-r I can agree with all of that.
One could argue quite well, that Smith was the catalyst of the Coventry goal, when he tried play the ball past their defender, once and it came back to him, so he tried again. It was lost and Coventry scored.
I was hoping that MC would improve Dijksteel’s overall capability. I believe there is a decent first team player in him.
@andy-r. I agree with your analysis of Dijksteel and if he had had more game time under MC then perhaps I too would be suggesting he is picked ahead of Smith.
We are, however, facing possibly three of the most important games in MFC’s history for a long time and as such I believe we need to stick with Mr consistency. 😎
@pedro. “Smith was the catalyst of the Coventry goal, when he tried play the ball past their defender, once and it came back to him, so he tried again. It was lost and Coventry scored.”
I totally agree with those comments and that’s how I saw it on the day; in mitigation the ball was funnelled out to our left hand side where there was a lack of cover and we conceded yet another disappointing goal.
There again, had either attempted pass by Smith succeeded then Jones would have been free and with space to run at goal; fine margins. 😎
MFC website showing pictures of players in training ahead of Coventry game.
No sign of Fry, Forss, Ramsey or Howson ☹️😎
Must admit nervous about Sunday & Wednesday, hopefully the team have been saving themselves, let's see. Interesting to OGS saying that he expects Carrick to be Man utd manager one day.
MFC website showing pictures of players in training ahead of Coventry game.
No sign of Fry, Forss, Ramsey or Howson ☹️😎
Could be photos including various players have been left out, as there wasn’t as many as normal 😉.
Come on BORO.
@original-fat-bob. Your not suggesting that MC is playing mind games are you!
I wonder who he might have learnt that from! 😉😎
Hopefully, not clutching at straws, I would expect security at Rockcliffe to be quite strong at the moment and admissions and photos to be edited.