@exmil. We don’t have a game in hand on Hull or West Brom and are 4 points and 7 points behind them respectively.
I agree that it is not over until it is over but just to catch/overtake Hull we need to win two more games than them; possible but that doesn’t take into account what the other teams on similar points are doing.
Yes keep the faith but realistically what is needed is an extended unbeaten/winning run that has not been apparent in recent weeks; there again who knows. 😎
@exmil no need to be sorry exmil, I sincerely admire your faith.
To have any chance of me not having egg on my face, as KP said, we need to go on an unbeaten run, certainly against all the other teams, than possibly Leicester and Southampton, which would be some achievement.
My biggest hope is to see us winning games, especially at the Riverside. The fans deserve that more than anything given the fantastic support this season. Six wins at home to date, is totally unacceptable.
I guess we'll know after February's games if Boro are still in the chase for the play-offs - I'd be looking for minimum of 7 from the next 4 games and ideally 9 as anything from Leicester away would be a bonus.
Boro have dropped a lot of unnecessary points in recent weeks that have dented our top-six hopes and in truth we should be above Hull. The injuries have certainly not helped and not having a fit striker has hampered our hopes but the side is also lacking pace and Jones being out has been a big miss.
Interesting, saw Chelsea get well beaten by Wolves at Stamford Bridge and they had the pace to worry their ageing defence - a bit like how Jones gave them problems in the first leg at the Riverside.
Anyway, I think Forss has a turn of speed over a short distance but don't think he's fully fit yet and he's also our most lethal finisher too. Not sure how long Azaz will need to get to his A-game - remember how Rogers looked for the first few months when he arrived so I'm not ready to rely on him winning games this month. A lot depends on how good McGree is when he returns but Silvera isn't a starter for me.
I'm also not convinced Coburn will ever be fully fit this season and he probably needs an op and then there's Latte Lathe who always seems to get injured and then takes longer to recover.
So not ideal for a playoff challenge but if Boro can stay in touch (no more than 5 points as the sheer number of clubs in the race will mean probably at least one will go on a run this month) then there's always a chance but I'm less convinced that it will be a top-six finish than I was a month ago - which is purely down to losing our most inform player in Rogers, not having a fit striker, then losing our most dangerous runner in Jones and seeing a few of our midfielders off form too.
Oh and perhaps only winning one Championship game this year from the last 4 has been well below what we should have managed - three home games and just 2 points is the killer as both Rotherham and Sunderland were easily beatable. Indeed, that's now just one win from the last six Championship games at home and that's not the way clubs gain promotion so Boro need to get their act together at the Riverside and stop dropping points that they should have banked.
I accept everything that everyone has stated above, so I ask the question, how many points out of the next 4 matches would people want to restore their faith in Boro’s playoff chances, the games are:
Bristol home
Preston away
Leicester away
Plymouth home
It would be pointless if everyone put 12 points, so be realistic, the question is how many points would start you to believe in Boro again this season.
As another note, did anyone else see the interview with Kieran Scott on Facebook channel The Twe12th man podcast, his interview is in the last 45 minutes, so fast forward to about 17.5 minutes in, then he joins, as he answers a lot of fan questions, very interesting interview.
Come on BORO.
The referee for Saturday is Sam Allison a fast tracked referee (who I have been told it’s because he is black, the same reason Rebecca Welch has been fast tracked because she is female, I was told this before either was in the championship), to meet diversity targets. As far as Allison is concerned, he has never ref’d a match involving Boro, so we will see what he is like on Saturday.
Come on BORO.
@exmil. Any chance the weather could put the game in doubt, I am seeing reports of possible heavy snow? 😎
Exmil. Just seen one that suggests snow will turn to rain on Friday so unlikely to be an issue. 😎
I am sorry but I won’t give up on Boro quite as easily as some, if not most, on here. I know we are 12th, 4 points behind 6th placed Hull but IF we win our game in hand we will be joint 7th and another 16 games to go (after the game in hand). Players returning from injury do take a game or three to get up to speed, we have McGree back and Silvera didn’t get many minutes in the Asian Cup so he has to get up to speed as well, although we only had 3 incoming in January, give them a bit of time to integrate into the team and tactics, Azaz is showing he is getting better, Ayling is decent and we haven’t had chance to judge Luke Thomas, let’s see where we are at the end of February.
I was going to start the Exmil Challenge after the Plymouth game, so the first fixtures would be the weekend of 1/2/3 March but if most people think our season is finished, is it worthwhile 🤔.
I am not convinced that even WBA are safe in the playoffs yet and with 17 games to go, and we all know anything can happen, so keep the faith.
Come on BORO.
I'm totally with you. If we average two points a game from here on in we will end up at 74 points, one point behind last season's total of 75 in fourth and 5 points ahead of Coventry in fifth. This won't be easy but it's certainly not impossible and even close to that could see us make the top six. In fact, my guess is that 70 points will do it. This year sees a whole bunch of clubs chasing the last two spots which will inevitably mean that teams will drop points, including WBA and Hull. I even wonder whether Ipswich are hitting a really rough patch. I know that I will be dismissed for being overly optimistic but, as I have said before, I can deal with lack of success when it happens. I don't need to spend my time thinking the worst.
I'm up for the challenge but maybe we wait for a two stage competition over the last twelve games by which point we will know better where we stand.
UTB
Yes, I agree. I think we need a minimum of 7, but that may not be enough in the long run. I’ll go with your 8.
PNE away is always difficult, but they’re having a poor season, so we could well win there. I doubt we’ll get anything at Leicester. It’s crucial we get 6 points from the two winnable home games.
I think the referee fast-track programme is designed to get the most talented officials to the very top of the refereeing ladder and also help improve representation of BAME and women at the top of the game.
Sam Allison was a former professional player at Bournemouth, Bristol City and Swindon who started refereeing 12 years ago and then turned professional and has now been in charge of over 100 EFL games and also became the first black referee in the PL for over a decade last December - sounds like he's quite experienced and also as a former player should know the game from both sides.
Hope he gives us an early penalty 😉
@clive-hurren PNE’s season can’t be going too poorly, given they’re 10th and we’re 12th (although I accept we’ve got a game in hand).
@k-p-in-spain - It's always interesting to read about things from the other side's perspective. Sunderland must have been very apprehensive about the fixture if that article reflects the prevailing Sunderland view. And their criticism about changes from the Bench being made later than might have been appropriate mirrors the Boro views I have been hearing. Maybe people from other clubs give our club more respect than we give ourselves?
With reference to Neil Warnock for a second. His first game as Aberdeen manager ended with an away defeat 2 -1 to Rangers last night.
Although it's his first managerial post in Scotland. He is no stranger to the
Country as he has a house in Dunoon. I hope he does well as he was badly treated at the end by the Boro
Hierarchy.
@exmil Previous to the Sunderland game, I said that I hoped that the five games in February would yield at least ten points, which would hopefully get us up the table a little and closer to Sixth spot.
I had us up for Sunderland = 3, Bristol = 3, PNE = 1, Leicester = 0, Plymouth = 3
So we are already down 2 points on my wish list. Also as werder has pointed out, our recent home form is terrible and has been erratic all season. Can we realistically expect to beat Bristol and Plymouth. A point at PNE, would be a good point. We will get nothing at Leicester other than a good hiding maybe. But I may be proven wrong on all accounts.
As an aside, I have just seen an article about the healthy crowds in the Championship this season.
The Boro, were sixth with an average of 27'264, then came Ipswich 28'853, Southampton 29'271, Leicester 30'966, Leeds 35'851, and our neighbours up the road at a remarkable 40'969.
I assume ours may dip a little as I believe the Sunderland game was included. It will be interesting to see the gate on Saturday.
@exmil - Nine points to remain with a chance of disappointment at the end of the Play-Offs but 10 or 12 would be better. (Not trying to wind people up but we are only talking about qualifying for the Play-Offs and we know how, traditionally, they turn out for BORO). Out of the 6 teams we need to outperform from here onwards merely to get into the Play-Off positions, you'd expect maybe one or two to drop away but one or two to go on the sort of run that would make it impossible for us to catch them, given that they all start ahead of BORO anyway.
Oooops! Wrong again, Clive, as Mrs H likes to say, all too frequently.
I know PNE have been very inconsistent (ring any bells?) but I hadn’t spotted that we’d fallen below them in the table again. Perhaps I’ll revisit my optimism - especially as I now recall that our record there in recent seasons has been decidedly mixed.
I accept everything that everyone has stated above, so I ask the question, how many points out of the next 4 matches would people want to restore their faith in Boro’s playoff chances, the games are:
Bristol home
Preston away
Leicester away
Plymouth home
I felt at the start of the season that reaching the play-offs would be a bonus and that the most important thing was for us to see a team being built. I still feel that way but I do feel that it's important to have a strong run towards the end of the season so that we have something to build on. That is going to mean finding a settled 11 that plays most matches and isn't crippled by injuries.
We are perfectly capable of gaining 8-10 points from those 4 matches but even if we did, say, win 3 and draw 1 I wouldn't take that to mean we've restored our play-off chances. On the other hand, we could easily end up with 1 win, 2 draws and a loss but if we're showing signs of overcoming the injury crisis and we're seeing our players improve, I'll be ok with the points.
I still hold out hope that Boro can put a run together that sees us into the top six. I don't think we can realistically expect it at this stage, but all hope is far from snuffed out for me at least.
Boro's season has been quite bizarre at this point and gives few clues as to what is coming next. We started the season incredibly poorly, then went on a great winning run, but have since shown week-to-week inconsistency. We've shown bursts of the best of us, worst of us and lately, the plenty inbetween. Of course, the result of all that has been mediocrity but it's difficult to know which of our three sides is the one we'll see most of over the final 17 games. Recently bias says the inconsistent side.
In comparison to August, it's hard to argue that the squad has moved forward on paper with the January activity. Ayling arrives as a solid enough right-back but it is likely not a lot more than a fully fit Tommy Smith. Of course, Smith is injured long term, but the Ayling arrival simply maintains the level from when Smith is fit. Azaz effectively does the same with Rogers. Yes, Rogers improved during his time here but we should expect Azaz to settle too. Again, I see the move more in line with maintaining the quality than anything else. Luke Thomas may be the same for the injured Bangura, we shall see. Whichever way I look at it, I don't see a squad exiting January that is much of a step up from the one that entered the season, though a number of the new recruits have now settled and increased their output. Just as well, given that they've been needed to plug the gaps created by more injuries than could be expected.
If McGree can sustain fitness and rediscover his level, and Jones can return sooner rather than later, then I do think we'll see an improvement. Riley is a quality player for us and Jones brings the pace and direct running that we sorely lack without him. Having them both fit should allow Azaz back into the centre, where he's previously done his best work, whilst it also allows Hackney to shift back into his quarter-back role. These are all big plusses for the team balance.
We do lack a striker that we can hang our hats on but I maintain that Forss could be that man. Sure, I wouldn't expect him to play a blinder with his back to goal but that needn't be his role - it wasn't Cameron Archer's for example. A fit Coburn can do that duty when required and Lathe has shown himself to be a useful impact sub with his pace and hard running. Again, the issue is fitness. Forss has the instinct, the aptitude and the hunger for the thing that matters most in a number 9 - scoring goals. We can worry about what he can't do but mustn't forget that he's the best at the club at what he's good at. Carick will of course know more than I do but I struggle to see why he hasn't been played up front amidst the sort of injury crisis we've endured at times this season, including now.
There's not enough evidence at the moment to suggest that Boro will make the top six but we have already shown this season, largely with this group of players, that we have a sustained winning run within us. There's the hope, but not the expectation.
And yet, despite the downs, the injuries, the lack of a top striker and more, my overriding feeling is still that we're a club going places. Maybe not this season as we've had a reset combined with a terrible injury list, but we seem to have a workable strategy, some useful young players and a manager that they seem to really enjoy playing for, which seems to be half the battle in today's game. The ceiling for the club feels a lot higher than it did under some previous managers and "strategies", and the football is largely enjoyable along the way.
Never has 12th place in the Championship seemed so enjoyable.
Brilliant post, Andy! I agree with all of that.
Thanks Andy, excellent post.
Good points in that post Andy and perhaps this is a season that will probably be defined as one that failed to reach its potential due to injuries and yet more injuries. I think this season's squad is not of the same level as last season if you consider there was a brief period when we almost had second spot in our sights - with now 20 points between Boro and second spot this season it's not even the remotest of pipe dreams.
At least Boro are still in the mix this season but they can't continue to drop points at home against teams that hardly troubled us on the pitch. Though I'd agree that Michael Carrick looks like he could create a winning team if given the chance - I wonder what he would have done with a budget and team like Garry Monk was given? I suspect we'd have been promoted by now so it's unfortunate that he's got the task of bringing through the projects and being forced to sell a couple each season to fund the next.
Let's hope he's still in charge next season as it won't be easy finding another manager who can get the best out the players - his record in turning around players with stagnating careers such as Akpom, Archer, Giles, Ramsey and Rogers speaks for itself and won't go unnoticed.