Just seen that both WBA and Hull won away this evening. I think even the optimists can rule out any chance of sixth place. Let’s hope we can at least start winning our home games.
We appear to be kindred spirits in that we both seek to find some underlying logic underpinning the chaos of life. The Championship is a fascinating example of life as chaos as it provides so much activity that is beyond the normal rage of expected outcomes. I find this endlessly fascinating, particularly when combined with the range of clubs, personalities and background of English football history.
I'm less inclined to categorise draws as disasters. There seems to be a slight trend in the Championship towards clubs going on long unbeaten streaks and if we are looking for a way for Boro to reach 74 points then 8 wins and 6 draws may be as good a way as any. Clearly it would also help if the top four clubs can beat everyone they play - except for us, of course - and for the bottom half of the table to throw in the occasional surprise against the clubs clustered around us. Looking at that end of the table, the relegation battle is starting to heat up as QPR hit some form and even Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield are looking like football teams.
That does mean that our next three away games against Stoke, QPR and the catch-up game against Birmingham could represent a whole bunch of banana skins but we can only hope for the best.
UTB
PS Thanks everyone for your kind words. It's been fun trying to pull plums out of the Championship pudding.
I guess the only certainty with the Championship is that the fewer the number of games remaining to play, the fewer number of possible outcomes left to make a target.
As you say 8 wins, 6 draws and 0 defeats would give Boro 74 points - as would 9 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats or 10 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats.
Whereas Hull can now achieve 74 points with just 5 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats or 6 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats or 7 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats.
Basically, if both clubs lose 2 of their remaining games then Boro have to win at least 9 but Hull only need to win 5 - though if Hull were to win 7 games and draw 2 then Boro would need to win 10 and draw 3.
So failing to win a remaining game is more costly to Boro as it reduces the possibilities left to achieve the target.
Still, looking on the bright side, Plymouth got well beaten again and have now conceded 14 goals in their last 5 games.
@selwynoz Hartlepool United made it 13 points from 15 under new boss Kevin Phillips after once again coming from behind to win at home yesterday. Before that they were in free fall and the results were bad.
I do not intend to say we need to change the manager at Boro. We have seldomly enjoyed the new manager affect. Anyone remember Steve McClaren at Arsenal or Carrick loosing vs. Preston?
What I would like to say is that even aften some bad results, many teams can find their feet again and can have a desent or excellent run in their division. And Boro have a talented squad but need to get consistency. And find a fit and the best starting eleven.
If we are to reach the top six this season, we need to have an unbeaten run now. If Hartlepool were able to make it 13 points from 15, we should be able to do that in the Champioship, too. It won't be easy but it is possible. We have played well in the period just after our first seven matches and we did it last season - with Akpom and the loanees, but who would have predict that at the time?
So let's enjoy the ride and see where we end up. We have a good squad and an excellent head coach. Up the Boro!
Boro's best winning run this season was games 8-14 when we won 6 in a row beating Southampton, Watford, Cardiff, Sunderland, Birmingham and Norwich - that would be useful now!
@werdermouth I did not check. Was it that good!!! UTB!
Yes and it took Boro to 7th place, level on points with West Brom in 5th and got us all thinking we were heading for a top six this season despite our worst start ever with just two draws in the first 7 games.
Any combination would work but the others need to drop points. The problem with last nights results is that two home wins for Southampton and Plymouth would have been a lot better for us. Plymouth were playing West Brom so it would have been better for them to have an exhausting victory and Hull have to stop winning
We have to play Hull so that's something to keep up our sleeves.
UTB
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Boro, Coventry and Hull are all keen on Levski Sofia midfielder Andrian Kraev, who is out of contract in the summer. (Sportal.bg - Bulgaria)
Quite a few of the local blogs reporting MC and HH to West Ham in the summer ! Always looking on the down side as always! Much prefer our upbeat posts !
UTB
OFB
Yes and it took Boro to 7th place, level on points with West Brom in 5th and got us all thinking we were heading for a top six this season despite our worst start ever with just two draws in the first 7 games.
@Selwynoz In the end it is up to the Boro to start playing well. The rest is taken care by the suprising results in the Champioship and the fact that any team can beat any other team in this league.
If we got on a good run but not up to the top six, that run would help us going into the next season. The players were more confident (aka Ipswich after their promotion) and the fans would get on board for the following season.
We need momentum and faith. To archieve these, we need consistency as Carrick keeps telling us. Up the Boro!
@jarkko exactly. It would also help the situation of retaining MC for another season and the better players within the squad. I would also be willing to sell HH, if a) he expresses a desire to leave, following firm EPL interest and b) assuming we were offered a vey good deal overall. Upfront fee, attainable add-ons, and a % sell on.
This would hopefully, allow Mr Gibson to fund a proven striker which would not be cheap, unless it was a Brighton style buy, that nobody had heard of. 🤣 and a couple of other key position players.
Of course, it may all depend on the internet being correct, West Ham sack Moyes, and HH gets fit and proves he is worth a punt for his fee. Otherwise we may not get the offer most people are expecting and MC ponders on his position.
Much as I have enjoyed Selwyn and Werder's deep dives into probability theory, my personal preference has been to assume that we won't be either promoted or relegated (we are not that much closer to the top six than to the bottom three) and to take Carrick's line that we should concentrate on the next game and enjoy it for what it is.
As I have said before, we are miles away from being a squad of Premier League quality. Even if we do manage the minor miracle of squeezing into the top six, it will only be a case of disappointment delayed. I don't see us competing against either Leeds, Southampton or Ipswich over two legs, or if, given another minor miracle, we do, winning the Wembley play-off final.
And even if we do achieve that degree of improbable success, what will await us is a Premier League season similar or worse than that currently being suffered by the fans of Sheff U or Burnley.
Having watched the excruciating agony of Blades' fans suffering two consecutive 5 goal home defeats this months, I have been truly grateful that that has not been our fate.
I have, by contrast, really enjoyed our participation in one of the most truly competitive leagues in world football, where we were able to take all six points from the best Championship side in recent years, whilst scraping one point from six against the bottom team.
Exhilarating, frustrating, but all the fun of the fair, and giving us what the Premier League is unable to: a truly competitive game pretty well every week.
I think we will beat Plymouth this Saturday, though no one will be surprised if we don't. And I am really looking forward to another good open game which both teams will be attempting to win.
And after years of the anti-football philosophies of Karanka, Warnock and Pulis, where our chief objective too often seemed to be to cut out our mistakes and stop the opposition from playing, I'm finding it an enjoyable place to be.
@werdermouth “Still, looking on the bright side, Plymouth got well beaten again and have now conceded 14 goals in their last 5 games.”
That’s like waving a red rag at a bull or more aptly a precursor to a “typical Boro” performance! 😎
@lenmasterman My views precisely align with yours - winning more than we lose, whilst playing exciting football, will do me for the rest of the season.
Good to see the club have been meeting with supporters about season ticket prices, with some concessions made, resulting in the proposed walk out on Saturday by the Red Faction not going ahead.😎
Yes it's a bit of a wake-up call seeing the promoted clubs struggle so badly - especially Burnley who walked the league with a 101 points and played a similar style to the way Boro do under Carrick.
Still, without the target of making the play-offs still achievable I personally think the season would just drift into pseudo-friendlies that either see players who can't play under the pressure of needing result suddenly look better or others not play with full commitment and those looking for an end of season exit play to their own agenda.
I'm hoping Boro stay fully focused in the coming weeks knowing they can't afford any slips - in truth Boro should've been in the top six given the number of points squandered against inferior opposition but they're still too inconsistent to mount the kind of promotion challenge that places them as genuine promotion material.
I do enjoy the football under Carrick a lot more than that endured under managers who played the percentages and welcomed a 0-0 as job done. I think Carrick has shown he can adapt his tactics and mix up the short and long game and still produce entertaining football - the problem of avoiding unnecessary errors is what has cost Boro this season and a back three looks to offer more insurance and O'Brien looks like the kind of midfielder every team needs regardless of tactics - especially now Howson is limited by his ageing body to be at his best every week.
But yes the step up to the PL has become almost too large for the team that wins promotion to manage by playing the way they got promoted - although just how head coaches can adapt in the PL is not something you'll know until they try. In that respect, you have to admire Gary O'Neil who has shown an amazing capacity to get the most out of his players and show a tactically awareness way above his experience. Often head coaches who played at the very top struggle to comprehend just how difficult it is to play at that top level and may over-estimate their players ability to do so.
The best managers kept it simple and got the most out of their players by instilling belief in their players that they could do the job being asked of them - looking comfortable on the pitch is probably what it's all about and I still think we have a few players who look ill at ease with what they have to do and that probably leads to more mistakes. Individual mistakes in the PL usually get punished most of the time whereas it's often several mistakes in the Championship that get punished.
Quite simply Boro need to improve and maybe they'll do that in the coming weeks but who knows what will happen come the end of the season - another season in the Championship is the most likely but that doesn't necessarily mean the club will be better prepared for the next campaign as there are too many unknowns to be confident that any foundations laid can be built upon.
Why to worry about promotion and especially the following season beforehand?
If Brighton or Bournemouth can stay up in the EPL, Boro should do that also. I know the promoted teams of last season are strugling currently, but this is not the norm. It is usually the second season that is more difficult to stay up.
Let's worry about the EPL when we are there. I admit it might not be this season yet. But I will enjoy the ride now and the style we play under Carrick. If we hit a good run, that will be excellent. If not, let it be. But hopefully we will improve and that we won't get more injuries. Also we will need Hackney still this season
Up the Boro!
Selwynoz
I’d just like to add my belated thanks, and express my admiration, for a superb opener. Very different, very interesting, really thought-provoking.
And I’d also like to say how much I have enjoyed reading the debate that followed it. This blog just keeps on giving! Well done one and all.
As for Plymouth, a side I have a soft spot for - I’ve no idea why - I’d like them to stay up. But not at our expense. Nothing but a home win will suffice on Saturday. And if we do, we might all then enjoy a bit of merriment, possibly a case of Plymouth Hoe, Hoe, Hoe?
Watched Bradford v Wycombe tonight on a pudding of a pitch and was impressed by a young player called Kavanagh who clearly has an eye for a goal and unlucky not to score. If his performance tonight was typical then I’m surprised that he never got a chance for the first team at Boro.
Philip of Huddersfield
@philip-of-huddersfield He has scored two in three starts before last night.
Just completed the EG final league table predictions. Leicester, Southampton and Leeds top three followed by Ipswich West Brom and Norwich. Boro in 11th on 63 points☹️hope I am wrong!
@k-p-in-spain I read a data based prediction yesterday that had the finish as:
Leicester, Leeds, Southampton, Ipswich
WBA, Coventry, Norwich, Hull,
and Middlesbrough in ninth
I would be content with that, as it may be realistic.
An article today states that Boro players have missed, up to now, a total of 189 games through injury, in that case I think we have done well to be where we are.
Come on BORO.
KP, you inspired me to have a go at this, and much to my astonishment, given my scepticism about the Boro's chances of making the play-offs, I had us finishing 7th on equal points with 6th placed Coventry.
I had Leicester walking it, Leeds, Southampton and Ipswich finishing a long way in front of West Brom in 5th, who in turn were a long way in front of Coventry in 6th.
I counted in the possibility of a strong confidence boost following our Leicester win by the what was on paper the weakest side and bench that we have fielded all season. And I also predicted 4 losses in our remaining games, so I was not being impossibly optimistic.
What the exercise proved to me was that that 6th place was still very much up for grabs with the possible contenders not noticeably superior to the Boro, if we play to the kind of standard that is not out of the question given the boost in confidence that our Leicester win must surely have given us.
Of course it could all turn to ashes come the Plymouth game...
@lenmasterman. I agree it’s not all over until it is over but not as early as this weekend please.
I agree in part with a number of fellow Diasborians who have talked about being happy in the Championship playing attractive front foot flowing football with a few more wins than losses.
It needs to be more than that as without ambition/intentions of reaching the PL then we end up as a middling Championship side; the consequences of that are we fail to attract the right calibre of players and coaches and that can only lead to a downward spiral.
Hopefully, if this is not to be our season then we retain the nucleus of the side to build upon and push strongly for top six next season; who knows even top two if the correct recruitment and strategies are implemented. 😎
@original-fat-bob - In the knowledge that you prefer upbeat posts, how about this as a Championship prediction for next season (2024-25):
Champions: Hull City
Runners-Up: BORO
Play-Offs: Burnley or Ipswich to win promotion at Wembley.
(Very sadly, Sheffield United to crash and burn. This is, of course, without knowledge as to which teams will be competing in The Championship next season, so taking something of a liberty. I could happily take whatever the rest of this season offers in light of the joys that await next season).
@forever-dormo I’m taking your post as a negative one 😉. Surely we’ll finish first by a massive margin, then go on to storm the PL the year after.
It seems to me that we want three things out of a match to make it truly enjoyable 1. To be playing in a game that "matters. 2. To see our team play high quality and exciting football. 3. To win.
Brilliant post, Peter. Intelligent and witty.
Sums up all of the conflicting hopes, fears and aspirations of this thread and the remainder of the season perfectly
I'm not interested in the rest of the season it's over. However without sounding hypocritical, I'm going to make a bold statement.
I think if we sign the four players we need ,to upgrade the squad ,we will walk this division next season.
Not that we don't have issues , but I believe next season the league will be weaker and this years crop of players have had the chance to settle and bed in.
But it's signing the the upgrades