After Boro concluded October with a stuttering 1-1 draw at home to Wrexham, the next challenge is away to Watford on Saturday, kick-off 3pm.
The point-a-piece slog against the Welshmen was a curious game indeed. A glance at the stats shows Boro to have dominated possession (69%), had more than twice as many attempts at goal (14 v 6) with twice as many on target (4 v 2) and yet the viewing experience was much more subdued. Falling behind early on to a deflected Josh Windass shot having failed to close the frontman down on the edge of the box, Boro laboured to the break, strangely lacking in intensity. Four half-time substitutions added some zest to the Boro attack but still it took until the 80th minute before Hayden Hackney converted a close range header to draw Boro level. By that time, it should have been 0-2 as Kiefer Moore missed a glorious close range headed chance of his own around ten minutes beforehand.
“Last season, Boro would have lost that game” is an increasingly frequent post-match expression heard on Teesside. The points keep trickling in but the margins are fine and still Boro have yet to gel as an attacking force. Still, these are good problems to have as Rob Edwards’ men remain second in the table – a position surely every Boro fan would have gleefully accepted just a few months ago.
While Boro’s transition rolls on, this weekend’s opponents are club in a constant state of flux. Since the Pozzo family took ownership of the club in 2012, they have hired and fired their way through a whopping 21 (TWENTY ONE) managers. Actually that’s not quite true as current manager, Javi Gracia, who took over in earlier this month is now in his second spell having previously taken the reigns from January 2018 to September 2019 – what appears to be the longest spell of any manager under the current ownership.
Gracia, who guided Watford to the 2018/19 FA Cup Final (a 6-0 defeat to Manchester City), appears to be a good fit for The Hornets. In management since 2007, he has been appointed no less than 14 times in that 18 year career. Unbelievably, his 19 months at Watford last time around is second only to a two year spell at Malaga in terms of longevity.
This time around, he was had just three games in charge so far but, having lost two of them, he probably hasn’t unpacked his suitcase just yet.
That said, their most recent defeat at table topping Coventry was one in which they exited with a large dollop of credit. The scoreline may have read Coventry 3-1 Watford, but The Hornets caused problems throughout, even with just 10 men after centre back James Abankwah - who will now be suspended for the visit of Boro – was sent off for a last-man foul towards the end of the first half.
Before then, Gracia’s men might have had as many as four goals, with Coventry keeper Rushworth denying three one-on-ones as well as producing an excellent save to tip Imran Louza’s effort around the post.
The manager was pleased with his team’s efforts:
"I am happy with my team as they showed a good attitude and dominated the game. In the second half with one player less we conceded no shots on target and we were able to score a goal,"
"If we control a little bit better the first half we could have had a result. We had two 'one v ones' with Rocco [Vata] but their keeper made great saves. You have to finish with composure and finish well.
"If we want better results we need to be more constant. But today we could see a team. With some mistakes that penalise us, yes. But a real team."
Watford may be languishing in 14th (not ideal for me as I tipped them for a top six spot in Powmill’s COTS challenge – it’s not going great!) but statistically they are one of the most creative sides in the division and the eye test shows they offer genuine pace and threat on the break. Boro beware.
As for Boro, well lessons may well have been learned last weekend as we looked sharper and more coherent after the introduction of Browne and Conway at the break. Both offered more drive to what had been a ponderous performance until then and, with a rare full week of training and recovery to prepare, it’s hard to imagine that either will be left out this time around.
Neither, however, will solve Boro’s most obvious problem - the wide areas. As commented on the previous thread, whether it’s 3-4-2-1 or 4-3-2-1, Boro are not offering enough threat from the flanks. Wingbacks Brittain and Targett have been excellent additions to the squad – consistent, reliable and solid – but neither have the pace, trickery or invention to stretch the opposition. Meanwhile, in the 4-2-3-1, Burgzorg and Whittaker, despite recent goal involvements, have too often offered too little.
There is a problem up front as well. Conway provides endless hustle but not the muscle to play as the gluey back-to-goal number 9 the team appears to need. He’s also been guilty of rushing his chances of late – unusual for a previously reliable finisher. Strelec, meanwhile, is yet to adjust to his new surroundings whilst Sene is another who shows willing but has lacked either the quality or the composure when it matters. These things may come but Saturday is of course just a few days away.
So we appear to have two teams still somewhat finding their way at Vicarage Road on Saturday, though happily Boro’s transition has included accruing lots of points along the way. Having watched Watford attack Coventry with plenty of success, my money would be on a return to the wingback system for Rob Edwards, possibly even with Browne alongside Morris in midfield and Hackney pushed further forward. We shall see but I do think that Boro’s defence will need to be at its compact best to ensure that those points keep trickling in.
Will it be “eyeballs in the sky” or Boro3? Well, teams that gain automatic promotion tend to win these sort of games but I wouldn’t be upset with either.
Up the Boro.
Great opener Andy.
I cant get away from this weekend being a real tough one for us.
I would certainly take a point, bringing three home would be a huge boost before an equally difficult trip to Leicester.
Watford haven't won an away game this season but yet have only lost one at home. Strangely though for a creative and pacy side they have scored less goals than us and can be suspect at the back at times, so in there is the hope i carry.
Many thanks for a very well researched opener, Andy.
Like you, I think Saturday’s game will be a tough one, but if we’re going to achieve promotion we’ll have to take points from difficult places.
I’d take a draw at this stage but sneaking a win would be perfect, as would signs that our forwards have turned the corner and started taking their scoring opportunities.
Thanks Andy I enjoyed that preview,quite comprehensive and thought provoking.
Browne has to start every game for me and I’m disappointed that Morris seems to now play more backward passes than forward. I like him as a player and perhaps his jaunts to the States have tired him or he has picked up some bad habits from the US coaches!
Interesting to see HH SCORE FROM A HEADER ! don’t think he’s scored that many goals that way.
I think that our midfielders need some shooting practise because Morris and HH often have a shot at goal and see it go well wide of the post.
Star man for me has to be Sol Brynn who has saved the Boro on a few occasions and will now be getting watched by other clubs.
Quite refreshing to hear a manager put his hands up and say he got the team selection wrong at half time but had the gumption and courage to do something about it.
My forecast for this game due to stuttering forwards is unfortunately 👀!
OFB
Thanks for an excellent opener, Andy. It beautifully summarises the respective situations of the two clubs and is written with your usual fine verve and style.
I agree that Watford is a tough gig. I’m quietly confident that our excellent defence will largely keep the Hornets out, but I’m much less sure that we can score more than one goal if we need to.
Would I settle for a point? Probably. But that would then increase the pressure on us to get something at Leicester.
Everything crossed.
Many thanks Andy for another excellent starter with your usual great analysis - I think I'd agree with your prediction of a return to a back three as Ayling appears to add an extra outlet and quality deliveries from the right - plus he almost curled in a winner at the weekend.
As to who will get the nod in an attacking perspective is harder to predict - I would like to see a few games with Conway, Strelec and Sene as a front three with Nypan in the number ten role - if only to see them settle in and get used to each other. Unfortunately, a back three will mean one of those missing out and I'm not sure a front three is enough fire power.
It's OK to give players like Whittaker and Burgzorg a fair go but those 4 mentioned previously are supposed to be our best attacking options and if we don't give them a chance to play together then I fear Edwards will be a long time in finding out which players may work together.
Then there's a seemingly a fit again McGree awaiting his introduction - unless he's not actually fit enough to last an hour without breaking down again.
Apparently, Watford played a low block against Coventry but hopefully Boro's lack of goals will prevent Gracia from adopting similar tactics on Saturday as there's currently no sign that Edwards team have worked out how to play against that system.
Sounds like it could be a tough game but a whole week to prepare may favour this Boro side!