BORO Home v Stoke City

Riverside Stadium

7.45pm, Tuesday 30th September (4.45am, Wednesday 1st October, Sydney)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRE-INTRO

Because the Stoke game follows on so quickly after Saturday’s game, I am writing this pre-intro ahead of the Southampton game with the knowledge that the detail and the language will need some adjusting in light of the outcome at St Marys. Whether this will mean tempering my euphoria about the season to date or finding some new way to mentally pinch myself after another game unbeaten is currently in the future, but I’ve decided to leave this here because it aptly describes the unreality that I am currently experiencing as a Boro supporter, a state of mind that may well be shared by a substantial number of Diasborians who can’t quite believe what is happening. I also want to remind myself that, whilst we have had a wonderful start to the journey, we will inevitably find some road bumps in our way, and we must hope that the team can cope as well with the future problems as they have with the challenges already faced.

POST SOUTHAMPTON INTRO

Having been at Southampton to experience a Boro fightback in the flesh, I have four specific conclusions to draw in addition to the learnings that I have made from watching the season to date. These have made me slightly alter my approach to this overall introduction.

1. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FACED. After seeing us come back against Preston, it was more than encouraging to see us recover so well from going 1-0 down against Southampton. The importance of this shouldn’t be under-estimated for two reasons. Firstly, because that belief that you can get out of a difficult situation will be hugely valuable as we face other problems. Secondly, I am convinced that Southampton will be a major player this season. The game felt like a genuine stand-off between two classy sides. Not everything was good but neither side resorted to ‘lump it forward’ tactics. St Marys is an imposing ground with over 28,000 people present.
2. RAPPORT WITH THE FANS. At the end of the game, the whole squad went over to celebrate with the Boro fans in the corner and the feedback between the two was palpable. This might seen a touch over-reaching but I now believe that the players and the management are totally committed to taking the fans along with them on this journey and this will be another major plus for the season.

3. STRENGTH OF THE BACK 5. Almost without anyone noticing, we have put together a back 5 that compare with any other this league for sheer experience and grit. They are not up and comers learning their way, they are very seasoned professionals who have realised that this is an opportunity for their career to have a wonderful coda with this club. Britain and Targett are hard as nails full backs/wing backs but also well able to contribute going forward. Jones, Lenihan, Fry and Edmundson are power defenders and, together with our new talisman Ayling, should be able to face up to any of the challenges that this division will throw at them.

4. ITS UP TO US. Unusually, I think that we are potentially good enough to be able to play our game without worrying too much about the opposition. Yes, we need to know who we are playing and how they might set themselves up but only so that we can decide the best way to implement our game. The management team will always be looking at game management, but I think that it is coming from this position of strength

5. WORK IN PROGRESS. The midfield two are superb but need help. When running the game, they need others to regularly be able with a wide player as an outlet and routes forward. Finding the exact structure and players to facilitate this will be a major part of the management's team work for the next two months.

So, on to Tuesday night and Stoke City. For once, not away which negates the classic archetype that a cold night in Stoke has always conjured up. After seven games of the Championship season, we find ourselves in a position that has exceeded all August predictions. We are top of the table with seventeen points from seven games – five wins and twos draw, with our unbeaten record still intact. I must admit that I initially suggested 18 points from the first ten games and then, in a moment of uncertainty, reduced my guess to only fifteen. The fact that we surpassed my adjusted target after only six games is beyond anything that I could have imagined in that early August malaise when incoming transfers were non-existent, and only the departure of H, VDB and others loomed on the horizon.

This run continues to represent the finest start in the club's 149-year history, surpassing even Bryan Robson's legendary 1994/95 campaign that took us to the Premier League. After the Southampton game, we are averaging 2.43 points per game, a rate that would see us finish with 112 points, a total that is fun to imagine but unlikely to be achieved. However, it does underline just how remarkable this beginning to the season has been. For comparison, the best points tally in the modern Championship is Reading’s total of 106 points in 2005/2006. This represents 2.30 points per game. For those of us who like to dwell, Middlesbrough’s 1973/74 total of 65 points in a two points per win world, translates to 92 points with 3 for a win. This, in turn, represents 2.19 points per game as there were only 22 teams in the old Division 2.

Most of us have spent quite a bit of time looking at the games to date and writing some very astute comments and I don’t think that it’s productive to again go over the details. What I would prefer to do is to look at the season to date and set out a few conclusions that strike me as good pointers for the battles ahead. Some of these I have already touched upon in my comments above so will keep it short.

Firstly, we go into the Stoke game level with Preston, Charlton and Stoke as the meanest defence in the division, having conceded just five goals in seven games.  The shift to three at the back has created a much more solid structure and, except for the first Preston goal, our midfield has been able to add to this defensive solidity by cutting off most of the central lanes to our penalty area. I haven’t checked the heat map, but it is my impression that we have been deliberately defending with a tighter central structure leaving opponents relatively free to cross diagonally. This could become a problem if we play one of the ‘long ball’ teams whose chosen method of attack is to hit it up to a big forward line. Wrexham, for example, could be a side that causes us problems. There is also the possible loss of Fry and Lenihan, our two best headers of the ball. I would suggest that their absence explains why Brynn has been more pro-active in coming to catch or punch. He did get caught for the West Brom goal, but nobody is perfect.

As part of the defensive solidity, there's been a marked improvement in our set piece defending compared to last season. We've conceded zero goals from dead ball situations in our opening seven matches, a significant improvement from previous seasons where roughly 25% of goals conceded came from set pieces. I'm thinking particularly of how we dealt with West Brom and Southampton's corners, with players knowing exactly where to be both within the six yard box, covering the penalty spot and communicating throughout. On the flip side, our own dead ball situations seem more threatening, which ties into what we’ve heard about the innovative thinking that Harry Watling has brought to the coaching mix. These aren't the kind of changes that happen overnight; they speak to detailed preparation and a coaching team that's working well together.

Secondly, our goal difference at +7 is only one behind the best in the division, that being Coventry, and their record is bolstered by a 7-1 win against QPR. One should recognise that we have not been prolific in creating chances and this is the major challenge facing the club, but we have managed to score when necessary.

As a team, we are not yet close to our potential. Our defence looks good, always subject to injury. In possession, we appear to be playing a fluid 3-4-3 with both wingbacks turning up in very advanced positions and Hayden and Aidan popping up everywhere. All of that is fine but that leaves our biggest problem, the lack of chance creation. This comes down to the composition and disposition of that front three which is still very much a work in progress and to an improvement in the offensive patterns.

What gives me confidence that this could be the start of something better comes from an acknowledgement of what should be sustainable: The defensive organisation and work rate. These feel like foundational elements that should continue, given buy in by the players. With only 0.7 goals conceded per game, this isn't simply down to good fortune. Our pressing intensity and the way we're denying opponents space in dangerous areas, that's down to fitness and tactical discipline rather than luck along with a real buy-in from the players. Similarly, the improved communication and decision-making under pressure suggests genuine development rather than a purple patch.

Whilst it is still early days, we must under-estimate the impact that the new management team has made by both their statements and their actions. The direction feels genuinely different from what we've seen from prior management teams. The improved defensive structure has already been mentioned but the proactive use of substitutions has been particularly striking. This is the first time that I can recall our management team demonstrating both the knowledge to adjust the set-up during the game and the willingness to back their decisions by action. The thought of prior management making tactical substitutions at half time is hard to envisage.

When it comes specifically to chance creation, I don’t believe that the problem is a lack of direction in the coaching but rather a combination of fitness levels of certain players and the difficulty that comes from finding the ideal way of putting any new group of players together. Personally, I’m inclined to see Conway and Strelec as replacement for the Archer/Akpom combination but Sene is making a strong argument with his speed and power. He will definitely worry tiring defenders when he comes on as a ‘finisher’. Anyway, there is no harm in recognising that filling that third spot is tricky. Sene, Hansen, Whittaker, McGree (if fit) and, above all, Nypan could have a genuine claim to a permanent first team spot amongst the front three. This is a good problem to have.

I also want to acknowledge the work that has been done by Kieran Scott. I’ve always been a big fan and I know that there have always been detractors but if we now look at the business done in the last few years, there have been very few missteps of any size – potentially Whittaker but the jury is still out – and the major successes are getting too many and too lucrative to be considered a happy coincidence. Finally, along with Neil Bausor and Steve Gibson, a clear key decision was to hire Rob Edwards and put him together with Adi Viveash and Harry Watling.

Alongside the football, Edwards has been particularly impressive in handling the external pressures that come with such a start. His measured approach to media interviews, particularly how he dealt with the Morgan Whittaker situation after some supporters' reaction at Preston, shows a level of communication skills that seems to be filtering down to the entire club. There's a confidence in the players' body language, both on the pitch and in their own interviews, that suggests they're buying into something bigger than just good early results and recognising how much their rapport with the crowd will lift everyone

As supporters we are naturally impressed by the points gained. But it's not just about results – it's about squad development and potential for improvement. Our summer transfer business has been positive, with plenty of room for growth still to come as Edwards beds in his new system.

Stoke have also had to rebuild significantly after narrowly avoiding relegation on the final day of last season. They've brought in 11 new players including an interesting mixture of young and old and purchase and loan. This includes experienced players like Aaron Cresswell (35) and Steven N’Zonzi (36), young ‘projects’ in Tomas Rigo (24, E4.00m from Banik), Man City loanee Divin Mubama (20) and Lamine Cisse (22, E4.5 m from Bastia) and seasoned pros such as  Ukrainian centre-back Maksym Talovierov (25, E2.0 m from Plymouth) and Sorba Thomas from Huddersfield. A lot of the early success seems to have come through Sorba Thomas and we will have to keep a careful watch on him. He’s a player who has always blown hot and cold but his hot can be very hot. Let’s hope that Callum Brittain’s foot has healed. A quick injection, maybe?

The bigger challenge now, of course, is managing expectations – both our own and those of the wider footballing world. Edwards seems acutely aware of this balancing act, consistently emphasising that we're only seven games in whilst at the same time not dampening the growing sense of belief around the place. It's a delicate line to walk: you want players and supporters to dare to dream, but not to the extent that complacency creeps in or that a couple of poor results create a sense of crisis. We’ve all seen too many promising Boro starts over the years derailed by either getting carried away or, conversely, by being too cautious when momentum was building.

There are a lot of interesting questions to be answered.

• How good can our new players be
• How much comes from Rob E and how much from Adi V and Harry W
• What will happen when we lose?
• Are we witnessing something genuinely sustainable, or simply a perfect storm of early-season optimism?

POST SOUTHAMPTON SUMMARY  We all need to manage our own expectations. I found it great to actually see them and see the interactions that TV doesn’t show. The warm-up ended with a full-blooded sprint across the pitch and back to the dugout. Who knew? What are others seeing at games that perhaps doesn't come across on television? Which of our improvements feel most genuine to those watching week in, week out? And perhaps most importantly – how are you managing your own expectations as this remarkable start continues? Because if there's one thing I've learned from following this club, it's that the hope can be just as intoxicating as it is dangerous.

UTB