After Boro made it a barely believable three out of three on Saturday, the next challenge is at home to Sheffield United on Saturday, kick-off 12:30.
What should we make of this start, Diasborians? A contradicting summer of both tumbleweed and turmoil in equal measure left a new man in charge overseeing the bare bones of his predecessor’s squad. Added to that, Edwards clearly wanted to overhaul the tactics to something that looked incongruous with his inherited personnel, whilst the fixture list was grim including tricky ties both home and away in the opening ten or so. It couldn’t work, could it?
And yet, here we are with nine points from nine – our best start since 1994/95 and the long-gone era of spending under Bryan Robson. As Sir Alex Ferguson once mused, football – bloody hell.
So what happens next? Is winning the new normal or is this some kind of “honeymoon period”? Is it sustainable?
Well, in terms of the squad, at the time of writing it appears that the group will be further bolstered by the arrival of Newcastle left-back/wingback, Matt Targett, and Lausanne forward Kaly Sene. Both positions are clearly priorities for Edwards with the current lack of options in each area. Meanwhile, at the risk of jinxing the situation, the anticipated sale of Hayden Hackney seems to have simmered down with no concrete talk of bids received. Finn Azaz now appears to be the only first choice player who we could be at risk of losing, though his off-the-bench cameo in the brilliant win at Millwall followed by a scoring start at Norwich may have driven his price beyond what suitors are willing to pay. Maybe, after such a good start, the Boro hierarchy will be encouraged to overlook the economics in favour of the momentum.
What about the results so far though? Are they sustainable? After just three games it’s impossible to know but a glance at the Championship stats can provide some clues.
Defensively, this small sample size looks good. Boro are top of the league for tackles won and also for tackles in our attacking third, which is decent evidence of Edwards’ “high press” in action. We’re also third for successful blocks and joint second – albeit with a host of other clubs – for fewest defensive errors leading to a shot. It is only three games but these are not the sort of statistics that you would have associated with Boro throughout the Wilder and Carrick eras.
This is early evidence, if any were needed, that the switch to a back three – effectively one additional defensive player and one fewer attacking player – allied to a more no-nonsense approach to dealing with danger is tightening things up at the back. Just the one goal conceded so far (let’s not talk about the Carabao Cup) is all the evidence you really need of course, and I would suggest that those defensive numbers – coming as they have in relatively difficult fixtures with an incomplete squad – suggest that Boro’s new miserly streak may very well be sustainable.
At the other end however, the numbers look less certain. Take Shot Creating Actions or Goal Creating Actions – that is passes, dribbles or crosses that lead to a shot/goal – Boro are fourth from bottom for both with around half that of Southampton and Coventry. For xG, Boro are 18th with the six goals coming from an xG of just 1.20 per match.
Context is always required. As stated for defence, this is a very small sample size, we are playing with one fewer attacker than in recent years, have had some tough fixtures and the squad has yet to settle down. However, there’s little to suggest that Boro’s goal output is sustainable at this point and this is an area that we’ll need to improve upon if we’re to maintain our early form.
Talking of improving, no side in the league needs to improve more than bottom-of-the-league Sheffield United. The Blades, unanimously tipped for a playoff place at the very least, have lost all three of their opening fixtures to date, scoring just one goal in defeats to Bristol City, Millwall and Swansea. They were also dumped out of that cup I won’t talk about by Birmingham City.
If few saw Boro’s start coming, absolutely no-one saw this at Bramall Lane. However, a sneak peak below the surface and perhaps the ingredients were there as The Blades underwent a major summer of change "aimed squarely at bringing sustainable success", say the board.
Firstly, Teesside no doubt cried itself to sleep as Chris Wilder was once again relieved of his role as Sheff U manager. New man Ruben Selles, the 42-year-old Valencian, was installed – his fourth club in two calendar years after short spells at Southampton, Reading and Hull City – as a new era of “AI driven recruitment” was apparently ushered in.
As well as the new manager, the volume of squad turnover is frankly astonishing for a club that missed out in the playoffs last season by around fifteen minutes. However, The Blades were heavily reliant on loans last term, with all seven of them (yes – 7!) returning over the summer including Premier League rejects Ben Brereton-Diaz, Harry Soutar, Rob Holding, Chelsea’s Alfie Gilchrist, Leicester’s Hamza Choudhury and Crystal Palace’s Jesurun Rak-Sakyi. A further seven players departed permanently including first team regulars Vini Souza, Anel Ahmedhodzic and Keiffer Moore.
The wage bill must have fallen through the floor as the parachute payments ran out and they are reported to have raised around £28m in sales to boot.
For incomings, there appear to have been a total of ten to date (yes – 10!) but perhaps only Ben Godfrey and Louie Barry will be names known. AI has clearly gone deep to pick out the likes of Malmo centre-back Nils Zätterström and Botev Plovdiv winger Ehjie Ukaki, which is a sentence I’m not sure I understand.
For those who fear that Sheffield United will turn up somewhere and give someone a hiding to burst out of their early season malaise – most notably at The Riverside this weekend – I would be inclined to allay those fears a touch. Of course, this is the Championship and this is Boro we’re talking about, but this isn’t Sheffield United. It’s a new manager and a whole new team who’s previously important players have departed, replaced largely by unknowns.
Going back to those pointless three game stats, perhaps The Blades have been a touch unlucky. They are sixth for xG and midtable for xGC – the sort of numbers you’d associate with something more like tenth place, rather than rock bottom. In reality, they have struggled at both ends with just one scored and six conceded. Surely confidence is low.
So, there may be a debate to had as to whether Boro’s new era has slightly flattered us so far but Sheffield United’s troubles are real, and with what must be such contrasting feelings in either camp, this is a great time to play them.
Joint top versus bottom is an absolute classic in the making for Typical Boro enthusiasts but our new found solidity against a side that is struggling so badly for goals will surely make this a fourth Boro win in a row. That happened in 1994/95 as well. I wonder how that season turned out…?
Great opener Andy and some mind bending statistical analysis to wrap our minds around.
I will be honest and confess, I haven't the foggiest idea what xG is, although I see it bandied around a lot so assume it is something important that all teams want a big number of. All of the rest makes good sense to me and if the numbers are not lying, then surely we will put the Blades to the sword on Saturday. It would be a good game to win as Stoke are entertaining WBA at the same time. That match is surely a draw in the making, or even a sneaky away win.
So, if the statistics hold good....I dare not say it.
Of course, this is a glorious opportunity for typical Boro to put in an appearance and if you consider what they say about there being lies, damned lies and then statistics, we will do well to remain circumspect.
Isn't it great to have some sense of anticipation about an upcoming game again. I have that tinge of excitement and I am keeping my fingers crossed this is not a false dawn and our hopes will not be dashed just yet for a while.
Never mind everything stacked up against Sheffield Utd, they will surely be busting a gut to burst our bubble. So I expect it will be a tough game. However, I am too scared to make a prediction in case I put the hex on them. So, CoB, just keep making us proud.
I see there has been another good away win for Doncaster in the League Cup. Also very good to see Huddersfield Town and Sheffield Wednesday victorious in their penalty shoot outs against illustrious Premier League opponents that I will leave nameless...
Super Headliner Andy, so thank you for that.
Like Powmill, these “xG” stats are for the those that know all about football. I know nothing, so would not even hazard a guess as to which Boro will turn up at 12.30. I would have been turning up at 3pm, if my brother had not reminded me.
Likewise, which Sheffield United will turn up? Hopefully the one beaten 3 times in the league. Most importantly, it is all about what we do. Start on the front foot, and defend well.
I assume it may be the same team that started at Norwich that takes the field on Saturday. Plus possibly a couple of new faces.
I wonder though if Azaz will start for us or Southampton.
No prediction though, just hoping for 3 points.
I
This game of will he or won't he regarding Hackney, is not good reading,if they have decided he stays, then get him in the office a new five year contract, Premiership wages ,and he knows his future and the fans are happy, get it done.
Many thanks Andy for another great headliner with excellent analysis of both Boro under Edwards and the Blades without Wilder. Just goes to show how clubs can transform over the summer break and not always in the right direction!
Funny that the situation Sheff Utd find themselves in is one that many (including myself) feared could materialise for Boro with their opening fixtures but like many supporters we don't see what's happening with other clubs and expect them to be better than they are.
Would be amazing to get another win and go into the break on maximum points and possibly even keeping hold of Hackney if recent reports are correct - perhaps they read my post on Sunday about why they should keep hold of him 😉
You probably do know this, but for anyone who doesn't....
xG is simply a measure for judging the volume and quality of goalscoring chances created. For instance, an open goal from six yards would be something like 0.999 xG meaning 999 in a thousand would be scored. A penalty is judged at around 0.8 xG, an effort from forty yards might be 0.01 xG, as I believe Lucas Paqueta's thunderb**** was for West Ham against Chelsea last Friday night.
It's all a bit new world terminology of the sort Sean Dyche and Dean Sanders hate (although not that new any more) but I think it's a useful measure, certainly over a longer period, because, whilst there is a touch of judgement about it, it is somewhat objective and it removes luck from the equation.
That Paqueta goal may have wiped out Chelsea's clean sheet but the manager will not be worried about it in the slightest because the chances of it happening again are very slim. It is not a defensive situation that the manager needs to rectify.
Looking at performance through the prism of xG I think helps you focus on the performance and the things within the manager's control, rather than purely results, which regularly don't make any sense in The Championship!
For Boro, an xG so far of 1.20 suggests that the chances we created more often than not would have resulted in 3.6 - call it four goals - this season. We've scored six of course.
So, either we've been very ruthless, or more likely we've been a bit fortunate to have scored 1.5 times as many as expected on the chances we've created.
I wonder if xG takes into account the player the chance falls to as some always seem to lose composure before shooting - if so I would imagine any chances falling to Aidan Morris would be revised down as he has yet to score for Boro despite having quite a few decent chances - so far 32 shots and no goals. Though he did score 2 goals the season before arriving at Boro.
Talking of Typical Boro - Danny Ings has just signed for Sheff Utd - hopefully Steve Gibson didn't give too much away when he was sat next to him in the directors box...
It is official. Matt Targett has joined Boro on a season-long loan from Newcastle United. The left-sided defender will further strengthen Rob Edwards’ Boro squad after completing the switch from the Premier League.
He has spent 14 of his 15 senior seasons in the Premier League, the exception being a loan move to Fulham, then in the Championship, in 2017-18. He won promotion with Fulham that season.
Up the Boro!
@werdermouth Does that apply to Whittaker also. 🤣🤣
I hope the “real deal” Boro turn up on Saturday as the Tickets appear to be going OK, especially given it is on SKY.
MFC website showing around 5’500 left, plus away section.
I wonder if xG takes into account the player the chance falls to as some always seem to lose composure before shooting - if so I would imagine any chances falling to Aidan Morris would be revised down as he has yet to score for Boro despite having quite a few decent chances - so far 32 shots and no goals. Though he did score 2 goals the season before arriving at Boro.
I don’t believe it does, as there are xG metrics for individual players as well. For instance Heung Min-Son regularly outperformed his xG over a season, showing that one of his key attributes was top finishing.
Andy
Great opener well done many thanks it’s appreciated.
You’ve given me hope after reading that and yea I’m going with my time honoured prediction ,!!!
BORO3 welcome back !
OFB
@andy-r - In that case, since Son outscored his xG over a season, I wonder if the algorithms are tweaked for the next season to "upgrade" his expected xG for the next season?
And it's good to see OFB hitting his regular button on the prediction front. I'd be over the moon with 3-0 but, as usual, any win will do. I will stick my neck out and say 2-0 to Boro.
AND FINALLY, thanks to you, @andy-r for the Match Preview which, as they often do, contained much information that was new to me. Cheers!
@forever-dormo Thanks Dormo, all for the kind comments.
The answer on tweaking xG is no, as it's objective (as much as it can be) and relates to the chance, not the individual.
I guess statistical probabilities are just another means to measure performance or assess expected outcomes - xG is just the computer's numerical equivalent of 'he should really of put that away' or 'he had no right to score from there'. Though presumably there's a human making a judgement somewhere or maybe it's all just an AI algorithm - but does the number measure how much two 6'4" defenders were leaning on the striker before he got his shot away?
Anyway, talking of statistics - this one from the Guardian made me smile:
The fertility rate for England and Wales has fallen for the third year in a row to reach a record low... meaning the average number of live children women can expect to have across their child-bearing life, stood at 1.41 in 2024...
I'm no doctor and despite the advances in medicine, I would cast doubt on whether 0.41 could be considered a live child.
So I would suggest on average 5 out of every 7 women in 2024 are likely to have only 1 child in their lifetime - though that again would depend on whether more women are not having any children at all.
So my point is that, a headline number doesn't really give you the whole picture of what is actually happening in reality - just like xG doesn't probably mean anything definitive in footballing terms in how your team or a player performed. Was he lucky with one and bad with two shots - the stats don't perhaps distinguish.
Thanks to Andy for a great starter piece.
This game is a classic banana skin for Boro who have more often than not stepped right on the skin and suffered the consequences. If they can avoid the skin and despatch The Blades with a decent win then maybe there can be real confidence that Boro could be contenders this season.
Great opener Andy and analytical appraisal of the upcoming Yorkshire Derby, thank you.
I agree that the switch in formation has tightened up our defence/midfield, added to which we now have some seasoned professionals operating in the side. We also have, in the main, square pegs in square holes, Silvera apart.
I would be delighted with another three points albeit happy with a point given our better than anticipated start and the fact that we will have to drop points at home some time and the blades will stop losing at some point.
Fingers cross I am wrong and the new manager bounce continues. CoB 😎
Another brilliant starter Andy and full of interesting info.
Are we all beginning to dare to believe that the season could be a positive one? A win on Saturday in front of live tv audience would be an outstanding start to this campaign and provide the widest of grins on the faces of the Teesside faithful.
Add in some useful looking new additions to the squad and things in the garden are start to look rosy all of a sudden. Keeping HH might just make this a good year for the roses…
Southampton agree deal for Boro's Azaz
Exclusive from Sky Sports News' Lyall Thomas:
Southampton have agreed a deal with Middlesbrough to sign Finn Azaz.
The deal is worth £15m made up of an initial £12m fee with £3m in add-ons.
The 24-year-old has started the season strongly with a goal and an assist in his first two Championship games of the season under Rob Edwards. 😎
£15m sounds a decent fee for a player while can be very good on his day can also disappear if he doesn’t get into games.
At least that should mean Hackney stays and if the City wonder kid settles in and Hansen lives up to his early promise then he was perhaps not going to be an automatic starter.
Now we just need Southampton to make a late offer for Burgzorg…
Quite happy to see Azaz move on and genuinely good luck to him. Clearly he had already made it known he was open to a move back to the South Coast, so we would have been pushing it to keep his head focused for the next three months. I believe the recruitment team have done very well to prepare us for just this eventuality and I think he will live to regret that we will be offering top flight football next season, but the Saints will still be serving up Championship fair....
@werdermouth Whilst we never get to hear of the finer details of the "add ons", lets hope that they are reasonably acheiveable and do not include promotion, but I guess that will be one of them.
Does anybody have any idea of a list of normall add ons, or is there no such thing, as normal.
Werder, as for Burgzorg joining them, I would even prefer Forss. I am just not sure what RE has if mind. And the enigma of 3.5 million Micah Hamilton. Obviously he was well regarded by Man City to insert a buy back clause and sell on fee
@k-p-in-spain I wonder how Whittaker feels about Azaz moving on. I’m pretty sure FA will have talked to MW before he signed from Plymouth and that he’d have been expecting to link up with his old team mate for a few assists and goals.
I’m still hopeful that MW will develop at the Boro, but it needs to happen quite quickly I think.
@martin-bellamy. I agree Martin. So far he has been a big disappointment especially in Championship games; looked ok in pre season against League 1 sides so needs to step up quickly. 😎
@k-p-in-spain lots of frustration around Whittaker and rightly so, we certainly haven't seen the Plymouth Morgan Whittaker since he arrived, was he the big fish in the small pond with Plymouth.
Regards Azaz, I think we have got an excellent price for a very good championship player who quite obviously has had his head turned. Good luck to him.
@pedro not sure there is such a thing as a list of add ons but it is normally the general things, number of games started, promotion, x amount of international caps etc.
@martin-bellamy rumuor has it that Azaz sold the club to Whittaker so it does leave things a little awkward. Who knows, Whittaker could potentially move on too in the window, on his showings to date he wouldn't be a huge loss.
Though I do still think there is a good player in there who just needs a break and a shot of confidence.