BORO Away v Birmingham City
8.00pm, Monday 1st March (7.00am, Tuesday 2nd March, Sydney)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PRE-INTRO (written before Leicester game)
My last intro was before the Stoke game which followed very quickly on our away game at Southampton. This was noteworthy for me because I was actually in the UK and so had the chance to go to Southampton with my brother and my niece and see Boro in the flesh for the first time in quite a while. It occurred to me at the time that the Southampton game was an important moment. Boro had started the season in a way that was better than any of us could have hoped but there was always the fear that it might vanish like a puff of smoke in the wind, and we would find ourselves dropping down the table.
Well, as everyone knows we achieved a strong fighting draw and our second half performance showed that there was a lot of guts in the squad. That display of guts has stayed there through the subsequent ups and downs, and we now find ourselves clear in second place with just 13 games to go. Because the level of this year’s Championship is much more even than we have seen over the last few years, there are a lot of games between potential promotion challengers – play-off or automatic – which will therefore always see some someone amongst the trailing pack losing points. Last weekend was a perfect case when Boro had the rather strange outcome of moving further ahead of our three nearest pursuers whilst simultaneously failing to beat the team in 21st position in the table.
I have seen several experts suggesting that 90 points will be a guarantee for promotion. For Coventry, that represents 25 points from 13 games which is a point under two points a game and that seems a reasonable target. However, for Boro, we would need 28 points from our 13 games which is a big ask. In fact, I think it very likely that the team in second will go up with less than 90 points and it’s not impossible that both ‘automatic’ teams will fall short of 90 points.
So, what should we be looking for?
Well, we have 7 home games left. If we win all of those, we reach 83 points and then a point a game from our away games would see us at 89. I believe that this will be more than enough but, sadly, it is unlikely. We are good away from home, but we will probably lose one or more of these away games. The good news is that we currently have a two-point gap or better between us and our pursuers and so, something in the 85 to 86-point range may well be enough.
Where does this leave us? I suggest that we have two clear targets. 21 points from the Riverside and 6 points from away games. Thus, any game that we don’t win at home has to be made up for by one or more wins away from home. Similarly, any away win gives us some leeway but, perhaps more importantly for everyone’s sanity, this perspective means that any potential stumble away from home is only taking one point from our internal wish-list, which is a lot easier to live with.
What this view does do, is to put much greater stress on our home games and that starts with the Leicester game. Although I have time to see the result of the Leicester game, I’m going to leave this pre-intro but might add a note after the game. Is this the first of our seven wins or do we already have a deficit going down to Birmingham.
POST PRE- INTRO COMMENTS
Well, that result has to be seen both as a disappointment and, depending on how good Leicester really are, a solid recovery from a losing position. It’s fair to say that Leicester could easily have won the game with one of their breakaways but it’s also true to say that we exerted a huge amount of pressure towards the end but just didn’t get a good break. The game also demonstrated just how good Riley McGree can be. Anyway, I have a feeling that, with Gary Rowett’s boot up their fundamentals, Leicester might not lose too many games from here on in. However, looking at where Boro now stand, this draw must be seen as dropping two points against the easy path to automatic promotion that I set out above. The best way to recover quickly is to beat Birmingham and that must be our next step.
THE REAL INTRO
Now on to Birmingham City and the weird situation in which a lot of the long-term Championship regulars find themselves when looking at Birmingham and Wrexham. Talking about Wrexham can wait to the last day of the season, but we now have Birmingham right in front of us and that is quite alarming enough. They have had quite an extraordinary time since they were relegated.
The club is owned 97% by Knightmead Capital Management, a US private equity firm and 3% by Tom Brady, the NFL mega-star. Tom Wagner, head of Knightmead, is quoted as having a personal wealth of Pds1.3million. He’s unlikely to be spending it but I’m sure that he and his co-owners will have access to as much money as Knighthead need to carry out their plans.
Since the partial acquisition in 2023 – when they bought a controlling interest for just Pds40 million - they have bought the stadium, completed the purchase of the company in November of 2025 and, at the same time, launched a plan to spend between Pds1.2-3.0 billion on a new stadium and regeneration project.
It looks as if they spotted a great opportunity, bought a well-known, club in partial free-fall just before it was relegated in 23/24, and have a clear view of where they are going. Clearly, they are intending to spend vast amounts on what looks like a massive real estate play linked to a football club. However, to be fair, they have also spent money on the team.
According to Transfermarkt, Birmingham City spent over Eu35million in season 24/25 in preparation for League One. They recouped very little and so had a net spend of Eu30 million. Included in this was a massive Eu17.8 million for Jay Stansfield, a 21yo centre forward bought from Fulham.
This year, they have spent another Eu32.35 million on new players and, after a few sales, found themselves with a further net spend of Eu20 million. Their acquisitions included Furuhashi (age 30) from Stade Rennais for Eu9 million, Vicente (26) from Alavez for Eu8 million and Priske (21) from Djurgarden for Eu7 million.
So, in summary, the new American owners have a net spend of over Eu50 million in a little over eighteen months along with whatever is the net cost of salaries and running the club.
This very substantial investment has left them with a squad currently valued at Eu105.7 million.
Running a quick comparison, Boro’s numbers (again Transfermarkt) come up with quite a different emphasis.
In 24/25, MFC spent Eu25.19 million on new players but recovered Eu27.15 million from sales for a net profit on transfers of Eu1.96 million. The major acquisitions were Eu7.1 million on Morgan Whittaker and Eu5.3 million on Tommy Conway. The sales were just two players, Latte Lath for Eu21.25 million and Isaiah Jones for Eu5.9 million. Very efficient and very sensible.
Moving to 25/26, in the two windows this season Boro has spent Eu29.6 million on a range of players. David Strelec (age 24, Eu7.5 million), Adison Milanda (23, Eu6.9 million), Alfie Jones (27, Eu4.2 million), Sontje Hansen (23, Eu3.5 million), Abdoulaye Kante (20, Eu3.0 million), Leo Castledine (20, Eu2.4 million), Kaly Sene (24, Eu1.75 million) and Finley Munroe (20, Eu350k) all joined the club. The ages are very striking in that, by and large, they represent a genuine commitment to the future. As in the prior year, these acquisitions were offset by sales totalling Eu29.13 million, for a net spend of just Eu470k. Four players brought in a fee: Finn Azaz, Raf Van Den Berg, Josh Coburn and Lukas Engel. There may well also be additional income to come from the add-ons for Spence, Rogers, Van Den Berg and maybe others of which we are unaware.
After all this, Transfermarkt values the Boro squad at Eu104.5 million with HH topping the list at Eu25 million. This seems like a strong position but it only places us eighth, behind Birmingham in seventh, Norwich in sixth (Eu113.95 million), Sheffield United in fifth (Eu130.6 million), Leicester City in fourth (Eu142.4 million), Southampton in third (Eu157.6 million), Coventry City in second (Eu164.9 million) and, way clear at number one, Ipswich (Eu197.25 million).
To be honest, Boro come out of the financial comparison looking strong but not as strong as the big guys. The squad is similar in value to a club promoted from League One with large intentions and plenty of money, but MFC is Eu50 million better off due to the intelligent operation of the recruitment and disposals department. Provided Steve Gibson is prepared to keep on funding the wage bill and other net operating expenses, we can look forward to the future with some optimism and remember …….we have Kim Hellberg.
All we have to do is beat Birmingham and we’ll be back on track.
Great piece of work Selwyn, thank you. Your pre-Leicester section sets out very clearly the points we need to achieve if automatic promotion will be .achieved. Ipswich is by far the biggest threat to that. I might be inclined to think the higher of totals might be needed, so 89 points at least to keep with them.
I think thst your analysis of the values of the squads also underlines that a point against Leicester was not so bad after all, even though we really could have done with a couple more points. Worryingly you have also shown that Birmingham is on a missuon and arguably has a more valuable squad than ours.
I will be holding a lot of breath as we take to the field, once more in the glare of the Sky TV lights on Monday and I am not going to risk putting the hex on the team with a prediction. Just keeping my digits firmly crossed.
Excellent starter thank you Selwynoz, lots of information and financial data with some of the figures eye watering; it looks at least from a financial point of view and player dealings that we are on a firm footing.
Unfortunately the quality of some of the incomings are now looking slightly less than had been hoped for and as such the squad is looking lightweight, with substitutes having minimal impact on games.
I am feeling less confident now that we can take a top two slot as despite some of the excellent play and results we have seen this season we have still had periods of inconsistency. Mainly down to the ongoing problems of execution in the final third coupled with some poor defending at times, all of which may prove to be our undoing.
With 12 games left as against 14 for Ipswich who have a better goal difference and with us having to go to Portman Rd, then they are, for me, likely to be runners up to Coventry.
If we are to have any chance it needs to start with a win on Monday, a big ask on current performances but we live in hope. 😎
Thanks for the intro Selwyn. This will be a hard game and a draw will be a good result I think. Birmingham have only lost 1 home game in the last 39. A 3-2 defeat by Hull City this season. They also lost a League Cup game against Port Vale. Also saw that owner Tom Wagner suffered a stroke earlier this month at the age of 59, and has stepped back from everyday work at the club.
Great work, Selwynoz and very interesting info on the financials.
Hopefully, we can get back on track at Birmingham, although it looks like a tough ask. On our day we are capable of winning all our games but that’s definitely not going to happen over the remainder of the season.
Given how much time we spend in the opposition’s box, I’m surprised by how few penalties we’ve won this year. Maybe we’re due one.
I’m going for a nervy 0-1 win on Monday. I wonder what odds I’d get on Morris scoring!
Great intro, Selwyn - really interesting numbers. and I think shows that Boro have somewhat overachieved this season. They certainly have compared to most of our pre-season predictions!
Speaking of predictions, I've put this one down as a draw in The Exmil Challenge and I'd be ok with that.
Thanks for a really interesting, informative and positive opener, Selwynoz. Great work!
Thinking about the points we need to accrue to stay second, I reckon that we’ll probably need 4 points from Brum and QPR , given that we’ve lost 7 of the last available 9. I think we’re more likely to pick up 3 in London rather than Birmingham, which I’m sure will be a very challenging game. So I’d be happy with a draw on Monday.
That said, the onus is on both home sides to attack, which might give us more space to exploit than we have had in the last two games. I’m sure we’ll get chances at Birmingham. Can we convert a couple of them? Let’s hope so.
werdermouth you need to predict an outcome for Bristol v Coventry, if the fixture is postponed then I will deduct the points from your total at the end of Part 1.
Come on BORO.
A marvellous opener, Selwyn. What makes it so outstanding is the way in which you have processed so much relevant information and presented it in such an easily digestible and enjoyable form. You have this down to a fine art and it's a really important and unique service that you bring to this forum. Great stuff
A superb Headliner Selwynoz, with lots of information to digest.
I think in reality Andy is correct in stating we have probably overachieved this season, but then so have a number of others.
We have bought and sold well in financial terms and credit to the club and Mr Gibson’s continued support. If only one or two of our forward buys had preformed as well as the defenders brought in, then I think we could have been even better placed in the points.
I know forwards generally cost more than defenders, but Brittain, Jones (before his injury) Targett, Malander (to date) and Browne have all been good acquisitions.
Of the forward players, Mm, let me think about that.
So onto Birmingham and probably a home banker given the stats. Which Boro will turn up for the continual “must win games”
Although Birmingham have a good home record they have only won 2 out of their last 7 home games, against Leicester and Coventry. Their last home league game was a goalless draw against West Brom. So a draw is not out of the question.
Each week it almost feels like the last game was important but the next game is more important. I suppose we can all study the League table and see which clubs are gaining ground on Boro and which are starting to slip away .
In my view Birmingham is a must win game mainly as an indicator that the Club is getting back on track. Whereas a loss would continue the winless run to 4 games and be 10 points dropped out of 12. A draw wouldn’t be much better -9 points dropped out of 12.
I think playing away may give Boro a better chance of winning assuming Birmingham play a more attacking game. Although I’d expect them to get all players behind the ball when Boro move into their half of the field.
Teams now know how to defend and frustrate Boro so it’s essential there is a plan B and C. For a change I’d like to see Boro break with speed as Coventry and Leicester did against them. To win games you don’t need 65% and above possession of the ball.
As for team selection I’d definitely start with Fry for Ayling. The rest virtually pick them selves with Sarmiento as a sub. Any word that the young Huddersfield signing is yet fit enough to be on the bench?
Philip of Huddersfield
🤔👋🤔
EXMIL CHALLENGE 2026 - Final Warning
So far we have 10 entries into the challenge, closing time is 7pm today.
Good luck everyone especially Boro.
Come on BORO.
@exmil I will do it - if I can find the lead. So far without success. Even googling did not bring it to my attention. Sorry.
Up the Boro!
Sorry, I finally found the Exmil Challenge. It is here https://diasboro.club/forum/members-lounge/exmil-challenge-2026-part-1/
Up the Boro!
EXMIL CHALLENGE 2026
Len Masterman you have omitted Bristol from your entry.
Come on BORO.
@selwynoz - I have just read your Match Preview on this thread and will go back shortly to read the responses. Firstly, however, thank you for the piece you have prepared. The information about the relelative "in and outs" for Birmingham and Boro was very interesting.
I think we can say that Birmingham and Wrexham are not the typical teams to come up from League One - both very well funded for that level and both very ambitious for more progress up the pyramid. I have mentioned a few times how Wrexham seems to come late each season to challenge for promotion automatically or through the play-offs. That shouldn't be a surprise because each year in the last 3 seasons the team has found itself in a higher division and therefore might be expected to take some time to become accustomed to the pace and skill levels encountered after each promotion before then kicking on with the club's climb up the pyramid. I'd hate Boro to go to the Stok Cae Ras for the final game of the season needing points to secure promotion.
Birmingham on the other hand is an archetype of the fabled "sleeping giant" just coming out of its slumbers. It is a big city club (England's second city) with good support and in light of the American ownership the obvious aim will be to get the club into the Premier League. I would not bet against it happening but, at 10th place with 49 points as I type this, which is miles below an automatic promotion place but only 5 points below a potential play-off place, I suspect it may be too late for Birmingham THIS season. But do not be surprised if the club is amongst the front-runners next season.
As readers may see from my exmil Boro end-of-season predictions competition I have this down as a Boro away win despite recent disappointments. Let's go 3-1. We will see if my enthusiasm for a return to Boro's previous imperious form has been misplaced or mistimed.
One thing to remember is that you can only see things in ethe "Members Only" forums if you are logged in. It is a bit like being able to "Like", you can only hit the thumbs up icon if you are logged in. I fine that I get logged out at times and have no idea what causes it, so it is always worth checking when you are looking for meber's only links....Sorry, I finally found the Exmil Challenge. It is here https://diasboro.club/forum/members-lounge/exmil-challenge-2026-part-1/
Up the Boro!
I fine that I get logged out at times and have no idea what causes it, so it is always worth checking when you are looking for meber's only links....
Powmill: I think (I don't know for certain, as I'm not IT-savvy enough to work it out) that the system allows members to stay logged in for two weeks only & then kicks you out, so you have to log in all over again for the next two weeks!
EXMIL CHALLENGE 2026
2 hours to submit your entry, 12 submitted so far.
Come on BORO.
@kp This might make you a bit happier:
Well, yes and no.
They obviously have the squad to make top two, as well as the manager and the experience of doing it all before. The article points out that they’ve been too inconsistent, which is encouraging, but also concludes that they’re still the best equipped side to go on a win of runs, which is less so!
But all that is academic at this stage, isn’t it? We simply need to concentrate on ourselves and ensure we get the results we need. If we do that, automatic promotion is still in our own hands.
Interesting to see that the MFC accounts were published yesterday and for me there were two key takeaways
1. wages alone were more than income.
2. The club is only a going concern for as long as it has total support from Gibson O’Neill, underwriting the loss.
For the year to June 2025 the loss was down to Pds11.6 million and, given that Steve Gibson’s wealth is quoted at somewhere between Pds450 and PDs650 million, I suppose that we are in good hands.
It’s also worth pointing out that, as MFC is part of the Gibson O’Neill group, the losses can be offset against profits elsewhere.
UTB
Just beginning to start thinking of the game on Monday evening and glad to see you've produced another thoughtful and very interesting preview Selwynoz - Many thanks!
I do agree that the automatic promotion total this season will be well below the 100 points that both Leeds and Burnley achieved last season - maybe around the 85-point mark unless someone goes on one of those runs but then three teams would have to go on a run, which seems unlikely.
It also appears Boro are getting more joy on the road and stumbling at home so perhaps it will be an even mix of points returned - though those trips to Ipswich and Wrexham will be key.
Having said that, Ipswich now have 4 home games out of the next 6 with one of those away game being at relegated Sheff Wed - which probably means Boro can't afford any slip-ups if they are to try and preserve their top-two spot.
Birmingham could be a trip that needs to be won and hopefully Kim Hellberg has studied their 3-0 defeat at Millwall to plot their downfall. Indeed, Millwall are just not going away and now sit third and could be just a point behind us before we play on Monday.
I always need to log in again if I've used a vpn and sometimes I've also lost a post when submitting if I haven't refreshed the page first before typing to check if I'm still logged in.
So better to refresh the Forum page and check if you can see the reply button on posts - though I did notice the other day that there weren't many recent posts listed and that was because it wasn't showing the Exmil Challenge ones as I wasn't logged in.
Maybe, I could change the Diasboro colour scheme based on whether you are logged in - something to look at when I've got some spare time at some point.
First off, apologies to exmil for not making the starting line for the Part 1 Challenge. I had a ridiculous busy Friday and an very early flight this morning with some issues taking precedence.
I have just seen the early KO scores, Derby winning, Norwich doing what Boro could not do and away at Leicester, and Hull beating Portsmouth away. Hull only had 34% possesion and 2 shots, both on target, one a goal scored by a certain Mr Crooks, against Portsmouth having 21 shots but only 5 on target.
Is there a story somewhere in those lines.
I am trying to be positive, but I just cannot see Boro matching Ipswich in the points totals, even more so as we play them away.
As werder pointed out, 4 out of 6 at home (two against Hull and Millwall) and a banker at Sheff Wed, the other at Stoke.
By the Millwall game they could be out of sight as I just do not see Boro matching them.