BORO away v Sheffield United
Bramall Lane
Wednesday February 12, 8.00pm (Yorkshire Mean Time)
Thursday February 13, 7.00am (Australian Eastern Daylight Saving Time)
Unusually, we reach the last third of the season with all teams having played exactly the same number of 30 games. Thus, there is no need to go through the well-known mental gymnastics of “Team X is only 2 points behind Team Y assuming they win their games in hand” and other speculations. The question, at least for a few days, is quite simple and comes down to “how many points do we need to take from the next 16 games in order to reach our target”, whatever that target might be.
For Boro, it is inconceivable that we will overtake Sheffield United or Leeds - who are 17 and 19 points ahead - as well as Burnley and Sunderland who are 14 points ahead of us in third and fourth respectively. Thus, there is only one possible target and that is to reach the playoffs by ending up fifth or sixth. So, what do we need to achieve to get there. I looked at the last twenty years and checked what total was needed to take 6th place. Here is the analysis
Pts Number of times
80 1
78 1
77 1
75 6
74 3
73 2
72 1
70 3
69 1
68 1
So, what is a reasonable target. I gave my crystal ball a polish but couldn’t get through to any kings or wizards. Therefore, I’ll put my finger up in the wind and say that, given that 76 points would have achieved the playoffs in 17 of the last twenty years, that seems like something that we can aim at. It’s also true that this figure happens to be 32 points ahead of our current total of 44 and, by a happy coincidence of maths, that comes down to exactly two points a game for 16 games. I like symmetry in numbers so I’m putting that forward as our target.
The main thing that surprises me about this target is how reasonable it seems. Two points a game was always the ‘magic number’ for promotion – equivalent to 92 points over a whole season – and we’ve been so far off that level that it’s almost a relief to know that a reasonably good run over the next 16 games should give us a shot at a fun end to the season. Looking at the other side of the situation, it looks as if two out of the top four could miss out on automatic promotion with some very high points totals. Personally, I hope that we come sixth and Sunderland come fourth leading to a spectacular revenge party at Wembley when we power past them.
The other aspect of the season that makes this a good time to look ahead is the end of the transfer window (Engel excluded). There are a lot of differing views about the January window and I’m not sure what I think about its efficacy in performing whatever task it is designed to do alongside making agents even richer. However, private rants can be kept for another day or another forum and, for the moment, let’s look at what we have.
When we were discussing the aftermath of the summer transfer window, there seemed to be a general agreement that we had the makings of a pretty solid squad. I’m not sure that anybody suggested that we would still need to go through a January window during which we would see so much movement. Well, we were all wrong. In the window just ended, eight players came in including 6 for the senior squad - 2 permanent and four on loan with no option to buy - and 2 purchases for the under 21s. The exit door was flapping like mad with eleven players leaving – five permanent, one (Engel) on loan with an option to buy and five on loan with no option.
The two young arrivals and the last five departures form part of our impressive academy and player development operation and I don’t want to say anything against what appears to be a professionally run and properly resourced part of the club.
Coming back to the main team, the obvious question to ask is “Are we any better off?”. That’s a tough one to answer. Personally, I was expecting us to cash in on Lathe Lath and hang on to the other stars and that’s pretty much how it played out. I did, however, expect it to happen quicker and that we would get in an equivalent replacement, someone who we could develop and turn into another worthwhile asset. That didn’t happen and, in fact, everything dragged on to the point where we had to ignore the buy low/sell high strategy and throw some big money at a loan replacement with, one assumes, the intention of getting someone in during the summer when we know what division we are in.
Much of the rest of the season could hang on how well Iheanacho does. If he scores 10 goals, we should be there or thereabouts. When you also add Illing-Junior and Whittaker onto the roster, we seem to have done a reasonable job in covering the loss of Lathe Lath and Jones, particularly when you consider the substantial profit that their departures have realised.
Other changes have seen us bring in an accomplished EPL goalkeeper to cover for Brynn and take over from Dieng and added the flair of Giles at left back.
Travers is a good piece of business. Whether he can become a permanent signing at the end of the year we will have to see but in the long term I can see him and Brynn as worthy of the first team. For the moment, I’m not sure about Dieng but he’s probably good enough and Glover gives me palpitations. However, third keeper is the least of our concerns.
I consider Giles to be a positive step forward. If you look at the Sunderland game, he was better than Borges or Engel going forward and seemed easily as good as them in defence. It may be that Le Bris had decided to mainly attack down our right-hand side, but Giles seemed to cope with whatever was thrown at him.
I’m not as anti-Ayling as some on this blog and he is as near as we get to a leader on the field. Between him, Dijksteel and maybe VDB we can handle the right back slot.
That leaves two areas, centre back and midfield. Let’s start with centre back. Clearly the club has decided that Edmundson is better than Clark. People can choose to disagree, but this seems to be a direct decision from people employed to make such choices. That leaves him, Fry, Lenihan if he ever gets fit, VDB, some good kids and others who can fill in.
The last area is centre midfield, and I detect that this might be the one area where the club failed to do what they wanted. The problems that we had when Morris was injured and the immediate improvement in Hackney over recent games is a pretty clear indicator that we need a proper defensive midfield player who can seal up the gaps and play the ball forward.
Morris is one of the best acquisitions that we have made for a long time, and we really needed some cover. Glenn Kamara would have been great, and we seemed close until the Saudis started waving their wallet. We kept on looking right to the end, even to the extent of a very speculative attempt to buy a kid from Liverpool. It didn’t work out and so we must hope that Morris stands up. We have some good kids but I’m not sure that they are ready to play the role of mobile wrecking ball and pass provider in today’s Championship.
Watching the last ten games or so, it is clear that we have an unusual ability to produce defeats or draws from situations when we should have won. This is not a skill worth cultivating and I hope that Carrick and the team can find a way to stop doing it. A lot of people posting have almost accepted that this is the ‘status quo’ for Boro and we should just go with this flow. I can understand this but I’m adopting a different position.
Looking at out results for the seas, two things seem clear.
- We very rarely change the way that we play to accommodate the opposition. We are an attacking side, and we aim to get the ball forward. Leaving aside whether we are good enough to cope with the defensive weakness that this attitude can create, it does mean that analysing the opposition is not going to serve too much purpose.
- We are capable of avoiding victory against anyone but, at the same time, we have demonstrated that we are capable of beating anyone in the league – except maybe Leeds – albeit we don’t always manage to hang on for a whole game.
If you look at our games against the top clubs,
- we came close against Leeds but lost to two late goals
- we beat Sheffield United
- we drew both games against Burnley
- we cruelly lost twice to Sunderland when any other result was quite possible
- we lost twice to our bogey team, Blackburn
- we have done the double over West Brom
- We managed to draw with Norwich from 3-1 ahead
We won’t be playing Blackburn in the play-offs, so I approach the rest of the season with the thought “If we make the play-offs we have every chance of winning’.
Now, a quick comment introducing the game against Sheffield United which is, after all, the purpose of this note. They have been a very effective team this year and are sitting in second spot. They have added several strong players during the window, but it doesn’t really matter to us since they already had a strong squad. If we play well, we can match them but, based on our recent results, I’m not going to forecast a win, even though it’s probably just as likely as any other result. The Wilder effect means that fate will probably be working against us but I’m ignoring that for the moment.
A final digression. If they were to win their games in hand, our Ladies team would go top of the league and in line for promotion. They have quite a few games to go but they seem to be worth a bit of support and an acknowledgement of the money that the club – or, more accurately, Mr Gibson - is putting into them.
Good luck and good health to everyone
UTB
What a brilliant piece to draw the line under the Sunderland result, focusing, quite realistically, on our new current situation and finding an optimistic slant on what we can still achieve this season. Some say that music is a mathematical construct, so maybe another way of looking at how you have calculated a target of 76 points, @Selwynoz, would be to say that the large lady is not singing yet!
I think we have seen that the Blades can be quite vulnerable this season. They will be playing at home, so we can expect them to come at us, with their support pushing them forward. That is the scenario that has best suited us this season and I think we are perhaps even better equipped to take advantage of that now, with Giles, Whitaker and Iling-Junior having joined. We are also very fortunate not to have a game over the weekend, which gives the new boys more time on the training pitch to get used to the way their team mates play, plus that we will also be much fresher than SheffU who will have been pushed hard by a Portsmouth side that has started to show signs it is more than capable of avoiding relegation.
I am inclined to keep the result from last season's equivalent fixture in mind, where we came out worthy and convincing winners three goals to one. I rather fancy Burnley to pip them to automatic promotion, so I am going to be optimistic that we contribute to their season going horribly wrong by taking all three points away with us next week. For us, let this be the start of a charge into the playoffs as the form team that no one else will want to play.
CoB.
PS....I meant the season before last when we turned them over ....
P.S. I forgot to say, what a great call out for our ladies. I will keep an eye out for their results going forward. It would be great if they can win promotion.
Thank you Selwynoz for an exceptional piece predominantly focusing on the way forward.
As much as I would like to see us shedding our bad habits I just don’t see it happening and fear that we will continue in the same vein.
We have only won 4 out of the last 15 games and assuming that that trend continues we will be well short of your magic 76 points and won’t have to worry about the playoffs.
As for next Wednesday, I can’t see anything other than a home win but hope my pessimism proves unfounded. 😎
Thanks for the opener Selwynoz. Interestingly United signed seven players in the window, four on loan, and now have seven players on loan, although one is Harry Soutar who is out fro the season so probably won't be included in their squad list. One stat of interest is that they have not lost a game this season when they have taken the lead. They are also changing how they recruit under their new American owners.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c8d95v67d1ro
This is the same way as Brentford did.
A brilliant summary of where we are, @Selwynoz Thanks for a greater starter and injecting some realism as well as positivity into the Forum.
My fear is that, if results go badly for us, we could be well outside the top 6 by our next game. I haven’t done the maths on a worse case scenario but I’d be surprised if it was recommended reading.
On the other hand, as you pointed out, we’ve got extra time on the training pitch for Woodgate to turn the defenders into clones of his playing self.
A measured, intelligent and well-researched opener, Selwyn, and well up to your usual high standard. I especially appreciated your analysis of the points needed based on the past 20 years results.
You rightly draw the conclusion that we will need to garner an average of two points a game based on your very reasonable assumptions.
Since this is automatic promotion form it will almost certainly be beyond us. But I suspect it will also be beyond our other 5th/6th place rivals, all of whom have shown a remarkable facility, like us, for losing games they were expected to win.
Since this season is somewhat anomalous in that there are four teams well ahead of the others in vying for the two automatic places, and a whole cluster of clubs well below them in with a chance of the fifth and sixth spots I'll proffer the alternative theory that the points needed for sixth place may be at the lower end of your chart.
If we are guessing I'd go for 72 points putting us in with good shout. So we would need to achieve 28 points in the remaining 16 games ie 1.75 points per game.
That looks achievable to me and makes me feel a whole lot better
Having said that, looking over the longer term is less important than concentrating on the next match.
I don't really accept the dominant narrative that Carrick has been provided with everything he has asked for, so he will have no excuses if we don't get into the top six.
In fact with so many new recruits he is back to where we were at the beginning of the season. And with all of the loanees, where will be in August.
Moulding the current rag, tag and bobtail squad into a coherent team represents quite a coaching challenge. If he manages to get us into the top six it will be some achievement in my book.
I agree 76 points looks sufficient to achieve a top 6 finish
Unfortunately based on Boro’s last 10 results it won’t happen.
To have any chance Boro need to start on a successful run of results. To achieve 32 points from 16 games requires say 10 wins , 2 draws and 4 defeats.
That’s a tall order
So, it’s fingers crossed and a draw v Sheffield would be a good start.
Philip of Huddersfield 👍
Selwynoz
A quite brilliant analysis of where Boro are and what we have to do.
I take my hat off to you sir it was quite a magnificent piece of writing.
Many thanks
OFB
Thank you Selwynoz for your temperate and balanced opener.
Enough of your logical thinking now - can't you see we are doomed man, doomed! 😉
A pleasant afternoon spent today with Mrs OFB some friends and George Edmundson. What started off as a nice quiet chat with the ladies turned into a two hour football fest with George who popped into the restaurant for lunch and was waylaid for an Impromptu In2View. My friend (a Rangers supporter) shared many a story with George about Rangers who is apparently living on his own in a flat in Yarm.
His father travels up for every home game and tries to get to as many away games as possible. He’s impressed with Boro and likens the Rockliffe training ground to the Rangers facilities but admitted the hotel and spa complex swung it into Boro’s favour.
He has the utmostrespect for MC and the players are in awe of Woody who can crack the whip and is solely responsible for the defensive tactics as we all suspected. He said that Ipswich tried to get him to resign for them when he briefly went back for a couple of days but that there was no comparison between the clubs for the professional ethos and facilities.
He was really pleased to be back and said that Fry was an outstanding defender who could only get better after being injured for so long.
A nice lad and a team player who hopefully will get better under the coaching of our management and go on to have a good career with Boro.
OFB
@original-fat-bob That’s a great insight - we never really know what’s going on in the background do we?
Thanks to everyone for the kind comments.
I must admit that I was deliberately setting the bar high knowing that the top four clubs could well take points from all the chasers and lower the total needed to make the play-offs. I just didn't want my picture to be too rosy.
I agree that there is nothing in our recent form to suggest that we can suddenly flower like some exotic species that remains dormant for years before stunning everyone with it's magnificence.
It's just a question of belief or maybe hope and, to return the Dad's Army quote from @Chris from Barlby , we may be doomed but "they don't like it up 'em" and I hope that we can at least give everyone a good shake up over the rest of the season.
UTB
@original-fat-bob that's very uplifting to hear and well done. It brings an upbeat tone to what has been a miserable few weeks. It's time we all started to look forward again I think.
I’ll echo everyone else’s compliments, selwynoz. That’s a magnificent opener.
I rather agree with Len that the other contenders for 5th and 6th will also struggle to reach 76 points. 71 or 72 may be enough this season. For us, right now, that’s still 27 or 28 points away from 16 games, nine of which are away. It’s still a tall order given our current frailties. But hey, let’s be optimistic. I AM confident we’ll score a lot of goals, so let’s hope we score more than the opposition do on enough occasions!
Let’s start by beating Sheffield United next week. I would just love to see Wilder’s face if we did!
Interesting stat we are only Championship team not to concede a penalty this season. Wednesday?
@mw-in-darwin Do you mean that our defenders cannot do even that? Concede a penalty and being too soft 🤣🤣
Up the Boro!
Selwynoz, Thanks for an enjoyable and pragmatic headliner, it nicely summed up Boro's position and situation. When it comes comes to making things difficult for ourselves it doesn't matter who the players are we are just brilliant.
The coming game, no Saturday game yet, is tailor-made for an upset and I have a feeling that the opposition are not looking forward to it. Are Boro a bogey team for them? I'd like to think so! The new centre forward should do well, his name is difficult to pronounce and spell so that will be like having at least two extra men on the field! I just hope things begin to fall into place and Boro hit the space in between the posts and not the posts.
Seriously though although OFB heard that our defensive coach is wily and clever could he please, please get them thinking about when to clear and when to try and play like one of Europe's top teams.
Here's to the next game.
ATB,
UTB,
John
Selwynoz, thank you for a magnificent (as to quote a previous manager) opener, giving a lot of thought to people on what is required to make the playoffs and peoples different estimates of what will be required, I too sit in the camp of 72 or less. Looking at the fixtures month by month, I don’t see many points in February, a decent amount in March, 50/50 in April, in my opinion enough to squeeze into the playoffs, not relying on Coventry away in May. It will be interesting to see where we stand at the beginning of the Exmil Challenge come the first of March, who will be the pessimists and the optimists for part 1.
Come on BORO.
I hope you haven’t just put the jinx on us with that comment 😱.Interesting stat we are only Championship team not to concede a penalty this season. Wednesday?
Come on BORO.
Sorry I haven't posted much of late - still lurking around here though.
Just wanted to pass on my thanks to Selwynoz for a brilliant opener - a really good read.
Also to mw-in-darwin, it should come as no surprise that we haven't conceded a penalty this season - I haven't seen a Boro defender anywhere near the other lot's forwards all season!
@selwynoz - Thanks for the Match Preview, which was a good read. A "we are here, so what do we need to do in order to get where we want to be" piece. I agree with others that 76 points (2 points per game from here to the end of the season) would be a very challenging task for an inconsistent Boro team and certainly rather better than the 1.46 per game achieved in the first third of the season. But I also agree with @Len, @clive and @exmil - the teams competing for a Play-Off position are likely to require a lower total to get into positions 5 and 6 in the table, whilst the top 4 teams all recede into the distance.
The quality is unlikely to be there in that "second group" to get up to 76 points. Now, 72 points is more achievable but it will mean there'll be a gaggle of teams all within spitting distance of each other at the end of the season with the likelihood that it will all hang on the results of the last round of games!
An absolute belter of a Headliner Selwynoz. Well researched and with plenty of food for thought as to the points total required for one of the remaining play off spots.
When I first saw 76 and the points per game, I thought “no chance”. However after reading the posts that followed, there appeared a glimmer of hope. Possibly forlorn, as we would have to start winning games and sufficient of them to lift us right up in the form tables.
As Clive said, we have 9 away matches and only 7 at home. Saying that, our home form is not anything to write home about.
And as werder posted, by Tuesday night we could be down to ninth place, and tenth on Wednesday if we get beat by United, which is highly likely given our recent form.
Looking at the future fixture list, there are quite a number, that have teams trying for the play offs, up against each other. But not sufficient, that Boro will have to start winning games and plenty of them to be up there.
I'm not a fan of Liverpool, one of those clubs that have never respected the other clubs , even when they haven't won the Premiership as many times as others.
Having said that, watching them last night, I can see why they will win it this season, apart from the fact they are talented,but what's impressive is they are at it, they don't give the opposition a second to relax, they are first to the ball, also they are strong at protecting the ball ,Spurs lost every fifty fifty , it was men against schoolboys when it came to physical contact.
Which brings me back to Boro , and on this seasons reflection, a team of talented technical players, but are not up for a fight , when things don't go right, not only that, they don't show a willingness to even defend in numbers, notice it's usually left to one on ones, infact many times they are hanging their mates out to dry.
It's down to one reason, it's on the recruitment and coaching staff ,who created this
@gt I accept what you say about coaching and recruitment, but we’re talking about professional footballers here.
Surely, their self respect should have them trying to defend in tandem, avoiding the obvious errors and, generally, having each other’s backs.
You can take a horse to water, etc…
Derby County have sacked head coach Paul Warne with the Rams in the Championship relegation places and on a seven-match losing run in the league.
This means that Boro boss Michael Carrick is now the longest serving manager in the Championship.
I just wonder how many seasons is the average spell of a manager in the Championship? Crazy in my opinion that a manager lasts less than two seasons before he is gone.
Up the Boro!
Who is out there , as far as a future Manager/ Headcoach , that you would be excited about, seems the pool is getting smaller and smaller, Mark Hughes now at Carlisle, what next Marhino at Barnsley.
Interesting Kompany insisted on Danks helping him at Euro big shots Bayern , he must be a top man
I've just read an article in the Gazette, sorry Teeside Live, and it is a re-hash of everything that has been written on this blog over the last few months. Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery I suppose or is it a no news week after Sunderland? It seems that if you want some original thinking and writing then Diasboro is the place.
UTB,
John
A little off-piste, but I have been watching Celebrity Bear Hunt on Netflix this week. Steph McGovern was one of the 12 celebrities taking part in Costa Rica. The show was a series of physical and mental challenges to decide who would have to spend an hour being hunted by Bear Grylls in a huge fenced off area of the jungle and trying to escape before he caught them.
I'll not spoil the result of the show for those who want to watch it, but I would say Steph did herself and (by association) Middlesbrough proud. I have huge respect for her. Some gal