I'm happy with the draws from the last two games, and with the philosophy that if we cannot win games then we must make sure that we don't lose them. Happy too with the fact that there have been such an extraordinary number of draws in the Championship this season that other teams are not making up much ground on us if we don't win.
But, but, but- at the end of the season when you look at the final tables it can be the high number of draws that can kill you. There is no substitute for a string of wins that can take any team shooting up the table in a matter of weeks.
It was our four successive wins that put us high and dry at the top of the table and gave the team and we, as supporters, so much confidence and hope.
We have to somehow, in spite of injuries, maintain that proactive mentality of looking to win every game, rather than ensuring that we don't lose, if we are to reach the promised land.
Brilliantly written, Len.
What if I told you, and indeed everyone, that the Stoke game inspired me to research reactions to 0-0 draws in previous promotion-challenging seasons (notably 1997-98 and 2014-15) for my next post?
And again, I apologise for the lengthy absence. Lots of things have piled up.
Optimism was high for me ahead of last night's match. I went out to watch the 2-1 win over West Brom and was thrilled, mainly by our overall performance and the variation up front that the likes of Strelec and Sene are clearly providing us with.
I thought we would win against Stoke, albeit narrowly. But when I heard how the game was panning out in the second half, I was ultimately happy to take the draw.
A small comfort which later turned to disappointment, magnified by Coventry's huge win tonight.
Earlier today I couldn't help but draw parallels with our 0-0 draw against then top of the table Bournemouth back in 2014. There seemed to be a real downbeat feeling among fans after that game, even if, according to both reports and live coverage, we'd had clear chances to win, our forward line had been praised as fluid, our defence had been highlighted as solid, the result was earned against a top-of-the-table team who had won seven in a row and we finished the match one point off the top ourselves - a position, I think, that we hadn't reached in years.
I don't believe I was hugely disappointed at the time. But I have learned to understand why people would be.
It's easy to see the logic behind contentment with a 0-0 draw against a good Championship side. They're common results in "promotion clashes". More than that, external factors such as tiredness, injuries and the pressure of expectations - prior to Bournemouth, we'd netted seven in two and won both without conceding a goal, and prior to last night, we had breathing space at the summit - can come into play.
It's possible to draw all sorts of positives from performance, too, especially upon reflection, with the consolation that the opposition played well.
But... by nature, in especially competitive football at either end of any table, too many draws - particularly home draws - are bad.
We can dress up, for example, our most recent four games as an unbeaten run - but W1 D3 L0 is the equivalent of two wins and two losses. I've also noted that back in 1996-97, the team with the most draws, Forest (16) went down, but Blackburn, despite drawing only one fewer match, survived with a game to spare, simply by winning more. Never mind the points deduction, it was also most costly that even though we never lost any of our last eight league matches by more than a single goal (0-1, 0-1), we also only won one of those eight games (3-2).
I'd also take the home fans into consideration, especially those who may have attended their first league game after beginning to feel the excitement that's been deservedly building during Rob Edwards' reign so far. I once asked a friend of mine, a Liverpool fan, what she felt constituted value for money at a football game itself, and she told me, you want a win... you don't want your big day out to the stadium with prices of travel, accommodation in some cases and the tickets to result in your team losing. She added that good football matters less in the actual stadium and you appreciate it more watching coverage on TV.
I can't disagree. And I'm still yet to see my first win at the Riverside as a spectator, so I know exactly where she's coming from.
I also mentioned 1997-98, didn't I? The game I had in mind was the 0-0 home draw with Dave Bassett's Forest, who we were battling with for top spot. To my recollection the other Dave, Beasant, was in great form in goal and I did feel rather disappointed when I heard the result. This was, however, tempered by narrow but vital wins either side of that match, away to then promotion challenging Swindon prior to their freefall (2-1) and at home to WBA (1-0). I remember being especially proud of both those wins because they were instances of maximum points from difficult games - and I genuinely couldn't have cared less if our performances weren't up to scratch in both. The joy was simply in the six points, and getting the job done.
@simonfallaha nice reflections.
Before a y of us start to get too anxious about the Sky Blues, I think it is worth noting now that Coventry has one more draw in its record than does the Boro so far this season.all the same, after last night it looks less like the 7 goal demolition of QPR was less of a fluke result than we might have hoped. Let us hope Boro's promising new strikers will begin to become similarly clinical as they bed in a little more...just maybe sooner rather than later.
I wrote that last paragraph while lying in bed waiting for the alarm to go off. In the shower I thought of what I should have added. After the shower I was too late to edit it, so apologies for spreading over two posts....
Worth remembering in our record breaking promotion run of 73/74 we drew 11 out of the 42 games played. 3 of those were consecutive 0-0 draws in the September. Our record after 8 games played was w2 d3 l3.
On the bus to work in Glasgow now with one last thought. In Reading's own record breaking 106 point promotion in 2005/6, they recorded 13 draws, but just 2 defeats from the 46 games played. I think perhaps the trick is, as everyone at Boro says just now, if you can't win the game then make sure its a draw.
The season has only just started and there’s a long way to go. There will be many ups and downs for all teams and so predicting who will finish where is a bit of a lottery.
Before the start of the season most of our predictions after the number of games played so far would have been around 10 points - some perhaps less .
So how are we feeling now ?
Most may be thinking that a top 6 finish is expected. Some may think Boro are serious contenders for automatic promotion. I tend to be in the former camp as we can’t expect the points to rattle up as the first 7 games has done, some of the more fancied teams will start to show their true potential and move up the table and perhaps some managers will suss out Edwards.
So let’s enjoy our elevated position and , as we so often hear, take one game at a time.
Philip of Huddersfield 👍😁
The warmest of welcomes back, Si. Great to hear from you again, and many thanks for your typical, but still extraordinary, historical research into Boro's 0-0 draws in the past. And thanks, too, to Powmill for your very impressive historical posts. As someone who can barely recall what happened last week I am in awe of you both.
I think that boiling down what Si has said to its simplest equation, we should remember, counter intuitively, that three draws is the equivalent in points to one win and two losses. There is a danger of over-valuing the achievement of an unbeaten run. It can lead to the kind of unwarranted complacency that few would have if we lost two games out of every three.
The rider to this is that on balance it is better to have forwards who are capable of scoring enough goals to put games comfortably to bed rather than over-relying on a solid defence to see us narrowly through tightly fought low-scoring games.
This is particularly true of home games. To gain automatic promotion you simply have to win most of your home matches. I'd say something like at least 18 out of the 23. So far we are on course to do that. Statistically it has been a brilliant start. But having seen those games we know that they have all been tight affairs in which the result was in the balance until the final whistle.
What we are most lacking in attack is anything resembling even one genuine winger, someone (like Fellowes or Sorba Thomas to pluck examples just from our last two matches) with enough pace to get behind defences and lay the ball off to Strelic, whose genius lies in finding space for himself in the tightest of areas. He is a proven goalscorer at international level, who will get us the 20+ goals a season that we need if he is fed rather than being employed as a long-ball target man.
We are, of course, used to having been a one-dimensional attacking team, for many years with Jones, and then Doak providing the kind of pace and penetration down the right which have always been conspicuously lacking down our left flank. Now we have no width at all. Our current right winger favours his left foot, whilst the selling of Jones to unblock the route for the favoured protege, Hamilton, now looks like a major misjudgement. Remedying this in the January window will be, for me, the major priority if we are to get our attack clicking to achieve those vital post- January wins.
@lenmasterman how is Jones doing ? Is he getting his game, scoring, assists etc, I know he is league one now so you would be wanting him to pull up trees in that league.
@presidentjump There’s no doubt that IJ had some great games for us, but as all of us probably saw, he had some that just weren’t good enough.
I agree with you, that if he isn’t now a star in League One, he probably wouldn’t be a star in the Championship.
Doak, on the other hand, looked the real deal whilst he was fit to play for us. How far he’ll progress in the game, though, is anyone’s guess at this stage of his career.
@lenmasterman Whilst at first glance, 3 draws is mathematically the same number of points for the Boro as one win and two losses, in reality, the draws also mean we’ve deprived another team of 2 points by not losing.
Izzy was pulling up trees for the Hatters at the end of last season. A real crowd pleaser and probably their best player in the final run-in as typified by his M-o-M display against the Boro. Apart from his energy and pace as a wing-back he weighed in with a couple of goals and some assists in the 13 games he played.
Unfortunately he sustained a fracture in his back pre-season, and will be out for another 6-8 weeks so he has no Division One form.
Martin, I agree with you. But within the context of aiming for an automatic promotion place, which is, for now, the target we should be setting ourselves, depriving other teams of points is less pressing than winning as many games as we can.
@lenmasterman Agreed. But I’d still argue that three draws is better than one win and two losses. Still better, as you quite rightly say, is to achieve three wins.
@lenmasterman I’m not sure we’d have been thrilled with retaining IJ, if he’d then been out injured for that length of time. My view is that once a player has left we should put aside any personal regrets at their departure and concentrate on the players we have, rather than those we had. (I see that Josh Coburn is out injured again…)
Martin, to be clear, three draws is better than a win and two losses, as you say. But it's marginal. In addition to your point about depriving the opposition of two points, the probability is that the draws will give you a better goal difference over the three games. And psychologically and for the club's momentum it's better to leave the field with a draw than to lose two games out of every three. For the Boro there is definitely a strong motivating factor at this stage of the season in extending our unbeaten run for as long as possible. Over the course of eight tough fixtures we have been literally invincible, and psychologically you cannot put a price on that. At the moment we have the confidence of a team that no one can beat.
But in a way that is my point. It seems much better to get three draws than to lose two games for every one that you win. But, counter-intuitively, in terms of the points won, the result is exactly the same.
And in practical terms, in tight games there are always compelling reasons for holding on to what you have, and gaining at least some reward for all of your efforts and making sure that you do not lose. But the 50/50 gamble of going all out for the win is the one you should take. Over the course of a season it will be the number of wins that will determine whether we will achieve automatic promotion or not, and the number of draws that will stymie us
Great posts there from Martin and Len. Enjouyed readin those.
And so nice to hear from Simon. Keep us entertained. I love our society, me.
Up the diasBoro!
@jarkko I have to agree wholeheartedly that the discussion between Len and Martin has been very interesting and certainly food for thought.
I remember last season when we could not keep anything like a clean sheet, a number of us, were saying every good team has a strong spine, and a formidable defence.
Well we appear (if we can avoid the continued injuries we worried about) to have the latter, arguably we probably have the former in Hackney, Morris and Browne, however I think we have to be honest and say that the jury is out as regards the front end.
The weak link is as Len said, we have no wide players with the ability to take a man on and get the ball into the box, turning the opposition defence. We are supposed to have with Edwards’ system, the wing backs providing those crosses, aka Ryan Giles.
However both Brittain and Target do not appear to have that skill that RG had in that memorable season of eleven assists.
So just how is Edwards going to get the best out of Conway and Strelec, both box men, with the service to them to date being rather poor. To win games on a regular basis and keep in the top three or four, you need to score goals and have a tight defence.
We have seen in the past that we will not get any or many from our two main midfielders. So to be successful will require our two main forwards to probably get 15 goals a piece.
How that can be achieved unless we provide the right service will be near impossible. And that could impact our success this season.
At the moment Coventry appear to have the key.
Good post, Pedro
Some great posts chaps, this is the best football blog for real football supporters who are well informed, analytical and passionate.
We always play the ball and not the man, have respect for others views and it s pleasure to read.
Many thanks to all and welcome back Si we miss you !
OFB