The results at the bottom of the table have been relatively kind to Boro since we last won in the Premier League five games ago – albeit against a poor Swansea side. In the last four games the four clubs below us have only amassed ten points between them (Hull 4pts, Swansea 3pts, Sunderland 2pts and Palace 1pt) and have allowed us to remain four points clear of the relegation pack.
OK, it’s the nature of the drop zone that the teams down there struggle to pick up points but there is surely no need to hang around the trap door waiting for them. Three points tomorrow against a side with seemingly problems on and off the pitch could see us increase that gap to a massive seven points.
Opening up such a gap would make the compasses of Boro survival experts point in the direction of safety – especially knowing that the current bottom three have a combined goal difference of -71, which even the North Pole would find chilling.
We all know what our problem is, the world and his dog know what the problem is – and judging by his recent shopping trips – even our optimistically cautious manager knows we need to score more goals.
So Karanka has options, Negredo, Bamford, Gestede and Rhodes are all hoping to get the nod and prove their worth – though you wouldn’t be too surprised if only one of them started.
Much will depend on what formation the Boro boss chooses to go with – we’ve gone from not so long ago slavishly following the edict that wavering from 4-2-3-1 was not an option – to a whole raft of possible formations to probe the opposition and dance around the pitch to: 4-3-3, 4-1-4-1, 3-5-2 or 5-3-2. Though with every new formation it seems the available slots to select attacking players becomes fewer.
Karanka is a technical coach (sorry to break the news) and the wisdom of the football technocracy has decreed recently that when playing against a team who set up with a back three, you must follow suit. West Ham are another such team following this latest trend and our man likes to show he’s up with the best thinkers. This all sounds fine in theory but for Boro it essentially means a back five and three predominantly defensive midfielders plus two forwards. So perhaps we don’t quite have the players for that formation just yet.
Against Watford we saw Stuani join Negredo in what was arguably the Uraguayan’s most effective game for some time, but whether he gets the nod again is uncertain. I think (or even hope) we’ll see at least three attacking players starting against the Hammers – it’s a home game after all and the opposition are not a top six team.
With the current influx of strikers I fear Rhodes is in the departure lounge – Karanka said of him: “He needs to forget about whatever is going on around him because if he is distracted he could get injured” – though presumably the biggest risk of injury would be a nasty splinter from the bench.
The manager has also declared the returning Bamford won’t feature from the start – some would see that as mind games against the opposing coach but usually when Karanka makes these statements he actually means them.
Chelsea target Adama is probably due a run out on the gallops to keep him loose – and I’m sure West Ham’s defenders won’t want to see him run at them – but it won’t be as a wing-back as he’ll more likely scare the pants of Karanka with his edge-of-the-box antics in his own half.
Then there’s Downing who has pledged to stay and fight for his place – whether any of Karanka’s staff have been strategically placing Chinese take-away menus on the floor near his locker in the hope of planting subliminal messages is pure speculation – but it seems his number at Boro is not quite up yet.
So it’s extremely hard to second-guess a Karanka selection these days – I know of no person who has achieved this feat this season. Gaston is still suffering a transfer-window-long injury so won’t feature but the lively Fischer is available again. So I won’t attempt a starting XI and will leave that to others to speculate on.
So as usual add your match predictions – score, line-up, crowd and anything else that’s up for grabs – for instance: How many times will MMP scream 180 over the PA as Duzza takes to the pitch?