A big club methodology for a small town in Europe

It’s no secret that Aitor Karanka is a disciple of the self-styled messiah and self-anointed ‘special one’ Jose Mourinho – in fact it is essentially the USP of the former Real Madrid number two, who spent three years as his apprentice learning the Mourinho methodology. For a club like Boro, having a manager who imitates the most successful coach in Europe is the nearest they will get to the real thing – but is it possible to get the whole package or is it even desirable to roll out a big club template on a small town in Europe?

In last Thursday’s press conference the issue of ‘Jose’ was raised and Karanka was asked if he still spoke to him regularly – at that moment the widest of smiles lit up Aitor’s face followed by a joyous sigh a nod of the head and the word ‘yes’ – he went on to say that Mourinho as always was a great help and they both share the same mentality, focusing 24 hours a day on their jobs as football managers.

There is something bordering on a cult with Mourinho and he himself has described the bond with those in his group as ‘forever is forever’ as in his eyes there’s no such thing as an ex-player as once you have played for the special one you are deemed ‘one of theirs’. This may stem from Jose’s belief in managing through charismatic leadership – something he admitted to actually working on as he often planned the performance-like nature of his touchline escapades to inspire the players and raise the supporters mood.

The Rules of the Game

One thing Karanka will have learned from his mentor is that everyone has to accept there is only one way to behave under him – his way! – And there are no exceptions.

It’s been documented that when Jose Mourinho first addresses the players after taking over at a club he will use the saying “you are either in the boat or off it”. He’s basically telling his squad you buy in totally or you are out. The rules are clear, Mourinho will promise to be direct and say what he means to their faces, gossip and leaks from the dressing room are not tolerated. It is quite likely that most managers will demand loyalty but the Mourinho template is perhaps more zealous – no doubt devotees and followers of his methodology, such as Karanka, will instill a similar regime.

This regime also extends to his staff and he will expect total devotion from his backroom staff, who it’s claimed are almost choreographed in their responses on the touchline – it’s said if Mourinho protests at a referee’s decision, they too must all protest. You can perhaps see similar things with Karanka, but he’s a little less of a showman than his former boss but having Leo on your bench probably more than makes up for that. Then your mind thinks back to ‘Higgy-gate’ who perhaps made a fatal mistake of seeing the referee’s side when he apparently apologised on Karanka’s behalf.

It may well be that Karanka has copied Jose’s style of leadership but is it imitation without the personality to carry it off? Mourinho believes in charasmatic leadership and has at his disposal all the attributes, mannerisms, humour and sharp wit and actually enjoys jousting with the press as it provides a stage to display his complete inner belief and arrogance – whereas Aitor appears to be a bit more reserved and less confident in front of the media. Perhaps he sometimes comes across as clumsy as he’s delivering his pre-planned lines in press conferences – sometimes they are just shoe-horned randomly into the conversation like he’s only there to make that point as a means of creating a distraction. The worry is that we sometimes get Jose Mourinho as manager by proxy!

Training and Tactics

In 2012, Karanka was part of a Real Madrid delegation that was giving a practical demonstration of Jose Mourinho’s methods of coaching at UCLA – it was attended by a football coach Gary Curneen on behalf on Just-Football.com, who wrote a rather interesting three part blog on his experiences. From what I previously read and heard of Karanka’s methods it pretty much appears to describe the template to which he bases his own methodology.

The selection of training exercises is always consistent with the style of play – naturally there can be no contradictions – with these training drills being carefully designed and practised over time until they become instinctive and automatic for the players. The objective is to create a “Play Culture” that is defined as players knowing exactly what their individual roles and the collective roles are within the team.

What was interesting is that training included specific exercises that practised patterns of play – such as how the team moved forward in a specific way as a unit by creating passing options – right-back to central defender to left back to advancing central defender etc – all very precise and methodical until the ball is released in the final third – sounds familiar? But perhaps it’s what happens in that final third where Boro are short on ideas and movement or indeed quality.

This to me puts into question any idea that a Karanka Boro can suddenly re-invent themselves into a more dynamic progressive team – they have presumably spent the whole season, and some cases several seasons being drilled with exercises to perform instinctively in the boss’s methodology and desired pattern of play.

For example, defensive organisation focuses on shape, marking patterns, and breaking the team into sections including how attacking players should press immediately after losing the ball. What we see emerge is how Mourinho has developed a methodology to instill into his teams the tools to think how he thinks as a tactician and strategist. It also allows other to follow his template but of course it will always be interpreted slightly differently by other coaches and the players themselves.

The natural conclusion is that players conform to the strategy and this is perhaps why we observe our forwards change their attention from looking to attack the ball and instead getting into the drilled defensive shape – perhaps this kind of training has gradually taken the instinctive edge off our forwards in terms of looking at goal opportunities and moved them to be part of a more strategic defensive structure.

The difference for Mourinho is that he generally works with world class players who have more explosive qualities and skills that can still manifest themselves within such tightly controlled structures. But I suspect for most player they simply don’t have the physical attributes or mental alertness to multitask to such degree that allows them to retain extra capacity to perform beyond the framework.

At the heart of Mourinho’s match preparation is the importance of thorough analysis of the opposition. It is something he learnt from Van Gaal, who it has been said is more obsessed by stopping the other team playing that getting his own to play. In fact Mourinho is even far more aggressive than his former mentor in that regard and has also learnt to pass this analysis on to his players in a more succinct method.

Detailed analysis, video clips, emails and even text messages are provided to individual players but they are designed to be short and sharp. At Real Madrid these were condensed down to two or three key video clips about the team they would next face and were played in a loop in the dressing room, medical room, gym and canteen during the week before the match. We know that this has also become part of Karanka’s pre-match methods for the players as every detail is carefully planned.

Darker Downside

One of the downsides to Mourinho’s approach is he prefers not to develop talent as he regards his methods are better suited to more mature players with a greater understanding of the game – though it’s possible for a big club with the riches to take that view but I suspect Karanka will have to work within his resources at Boro and also with players who are perhaps not as rounded in their development. In addition, big clubs can naughty-step good players who don’t buy in as they usually have other options, but if a club of our resources do the same they are somewhat reduced of options – plus there is also a general problem in attracting players for teams like Boro, something big clubs don’t share.

To some degree I think we’ve seen that a Mourinho methodology is also better suited to a big club who have match-winning players to bolt onto a highly organised unit – Yes Boro look organised but they lack the quality to explode in the last third or counter-attack with speed and precision. Boro don’t have either the players to deliver the quality ball or take the few half-chances that come their way – that may be so for whatever system we employ, but under Karanka a more direct approach has been frowned upon as it’s not part of the methodology – other clubs are not so fussy as a goal is still a goal.

Sitting underneath the carefully planned training sessions, tactical analysis and match preparation there is another side to the Mourinho method – a darker side. Part of the psychology is to also create controversy and stoke up tensions with the aim of making either his staff, players or even the board show that they are 100% behind him. Whilst this has shown to be an excellent short-term method of creating the desired siege mentality, which acts as a kind of energy-hit to gain that extra couple of percent when it’s needed, it does tend to gradually leave everyone mentally and physically exhausted.

Recently Fabio Capello claimed that Mourinho always “burns out” his players mentally within two years because of the intensity in his working methods. People also eventually get worn down from the constant friction created from the off-field activities and controversy. It’s not usually a problem for the Special One as his plan is usually to achieve his goals quickly and then move on to the next club – he’s always in demand as other clubs crave success at any cost. Though we saw in his last season at Chelsea what can happen once the players and staff grow tired of his games. One wonders if such an approach is particularly unsuited to a club like Boro who are looking probably for a more long-term sustainable model.

It has also been observed that such is the intensity of the training and match preparations that players eventually reach the point where they find it impossible to give the manager any more. Karanka’s solution to the current bad run appears to be that ‘we must work harder’, which comes on top of recent statements declaring that he, his staff and players are all working extremely hard. Perhaps Boro have just reached that ‘burn out’ point in the Mourinho methodology – notably our best performance recently came against Everton after a break in Benidorm – maybe we have just gone past peak Karanka-Boro and there is no more to give.

Boot or Reboot

It seems the Boro chairman has decided to give his manager more time to turn things around – but how easy will it be to change our style of play? The idea that Karanka can work on Boro playing in a more progressive manner is perhaps a tall order given how the players have been coached meticulously with session upon session to play a particular way. The Boro boss told the Telegraph recently that they had been working for 2-3 weeks on being more attacking – there has been no indication in the last two performances of this but maybe it has instead actually left the players mentally confused in the flux between their instinctive defensive template and the new more attacking version.

It’s quite possible that a new playing style will just take longer to manifest itself and require more sessions in training – but what do you think will be the tactics to face both Manchester clubs before the crucial relegation six-pointers? Yes, it’s highly unlikely we’ll try to outplay either of those teams so the next test run of Karanka-Boro Mk II will be in a month’s time. It may be that a new voice is required to change our fortunes as the players may have subconsciously and mentally shut down Karanka’s.

The heat is on as fired-up Boro head to the Potteries

Watching Karanka’s press conference yesterday he appeared in confident mood ahead of the trip to Stoke and there was little sign of a man under pressure – he actually made the point that he sets the example to his players by walking with his head up and showing belief in what they are doing.

His reflection on the Palace game was that it was simply an aberration brought on by the last minute news from the Team Doctor that Friend was not available and thus ruining the week’s game preparation – no doubt his mentor would have offered more severe treatment to such an oversight from a member of his medical team.

Though why Karanka thought it was better to completely change the shape of the team rather than use a makeshift full-back remains unanswered. Interesting when quizzed over why Husband didn’t get the shout his reply was basically he was not up to dealing with Townsend and it would have been an ‘excuse’ to select him – though how the player takes that damning assessment is anyone’s guess.

There is often a degree of news management with Karanka when quizzed about Boro’s current position in the table and where we may expect to finish. According to the boss “We are in the position I thought we would be” – so the bar he has set is 17th place and that is the message he wants to get across.

Though is this our realistic position and are we meeting expectations? I had a quick check yesterday on where promoted clubs finish in their first season – it’s not usually as low as 17th for two-thirds of the newly arrived teams as the average finish is actually 15th –  with many clubs finishing comfortably in mid-table and only one of the three promoted teams actually ending up being relegated. So whilst a promoted club would happily snap your hand off for 17th spot before the season started it’s not, or it should not be the measure or the target to aspire to.

Below is a table showing the finishing positions of the promoted teams in the seven seasons Boro were out of the Premier League.

Season Promoted Teams (Position finished)
2009-10 Birmingham (9) Wolves (15) Burnley (18)
2010-11 West Brom (11) Newcastle (12) Blackpool (18)
2011-12 Swansea (11) Norwich (12) QPR (17)
2012-13 West Ham (10) Southampton (14) Reading (19)
2013-14 Palace (11) Hull (16) Cardiff (20)
2014-15 Leicester (14) Burnley (19) QPR (20)
2015-16 Watford (13) Bournemouth (16) Norwich (19)

I defy any manager (even those prone to control freakery) to be able to finesse one position above the relegation zone – in fact even Karanka mentioned that Boro could have had 32 points based on performances, which could be interpreted as we’ve either under-achieved or were the victim of unforeseen bad luck – though he may be right, I can probably think of five draws that Boro could on another day quite easily have won: Stoke (H), West Brom (H), Burnley (A), Leicester (A), West Ham (A).

So in some ways he’s saying we are where he thought we would be, but at the same time countering that by claiming an extra ten points would have been a fairer reflection, which could be an attempt to move the jelly-like goalposts away from those holding the hammer as they try to nail them in place. Though this type of duality is often what you tend to get with Karanka (and perhaps he’s not alone in the art of spin among managers) – it’s painting the picture in shades of grey to avoid having his hands tied by his record, though I’ll leave it to others to determine just how many shades of grey are permissible before the relegation watershed.

The Boro boss is also good at deflecting a seemingly critical point about being overly defensive and turning it with a straight face into a compliment – “we are in this position because we have a good balance between our defence and scoring goals”. There seems to be little acknowledgement to questions posed of how Boro can change in order to improve our goals-for record and he dismisses the idea of needing to change by just reiterating “we must continue to work hard” – he’s in no doubt that he and his team are working hard (which no doubt they are) and “they will fight until the last day” – though thankfully no mention of beaches.

However, in an article in the Telegraph yesterday he is quoted on the same subject of addressing the lack of goals with “There are things we are trying to do… For two or three weeks, we’ve been training to play quicker and doing exercises on the pitch to get the ball to the box quicker and to get more players into the box. But when you change things from one day to the next, it’s difficult.”

This raises the question of why has it only occurred to the Boro boss in the last couple of weeks that something needed to be done to address the problem of our pedestrian approach to scoring goals – these points have been highlighted for months by pundits and analysts alike so it will not surely have escaped his attention. Maybe someone raised the point in Benidorm after plucking up the courage after secretly downing a Zombie cocktail before an informal pool-side meeting. Perhaps it was Negredo with his lounger 30 yards away from the others who professed to be lonely on his own, which made something twig.

He has also pointed to the improved performances going forward against West Brom and Everton as an indication of his belief that Boro will prevail against their relegation rivals. He said about the game on Saturday “We have to show from the first minute that we want to win… as three points at Stoke is really important” – and that last statement cannot be over emphasised.

To have a good chance of avoiding relegation, Boro have few realistic opportunities left to achieve the four wins that must be regarded as needed at this stage. We still have to play five of the top six in our 11 remaining games after Stoke and although we play four of our relegation rivals, three of those are away (Swansea, Hull, Bournemouth) – plus the rearranged game at home to Sunderland – that leaves two other games where we host Burnley and Southampton.

These run of fixtures are in contrast to Hull and Swansea, who both only have two of the top six to play in their run-ins – plus they have shown in recent weeks that they have found much better form. On top of that Leicester looked back to their former selves post-Ranieri, which means the task facing is Boro beginning to appear less comfortable and surely it must be time to put the emphasis on employing tactics that concentrate on winning key games rather than attempting not to lose them. In addition, the meek performance last week at Palace is even more galling given that they also must play five from the top six and up until that point had no reason to cheer.

Karanka has batted away any suggestion that he has set a target for the number of wins required and insists he only focuses on each game as it comes. But surely that is just rather damp flannel for public consumption as he must have at least privately identified games that Boro need to try and win – especially as he also stated yesterday that the difference between the Championship and the Premier League is that we were capable of beating any team in the second tier but now the gap between the top six and the rest is massive. Which means he believes five of our remaining games are unlikely to lead to three points – leaving a realistic target of winning four from seven.

The good news is that both Friend and Barragan have trained all week with the squad, which should mean Karanka can field near enough his strongest XI. I suspect Ayala will partner Gibson with the looming aerial threat of Crouch and hopefully Friend and Fabio as conventional full-backs. The next question is how many defensive midfielders Boro will deploy – if it really is crunch time then the answer must be two. It could mean 4-2-3-1 and personally I’d play Downing behind Negredo and Gaston on the left, primarily because the Uruguayan has more pace for the counter attack. We should start with Negredo up top and surely Adama on the right. Who will be the midfield two? Leadbitter would drive the team forward and perhaps Clayton will want to celebrate his new contract.

Make no mistake this is probably the most important game of the season for Karanka – if Boro fail to turn up like last week then the message to the chairman will be stark. With only two games against both Manchester clubs before the international break, the question must come to mind of whether Karanka’s Boro are capable of winning at least two of those three games in the six days that follow the fortnight off. I’m of the view that Karanka will be unlikely to hang around should we be relegated – so it may well be a short-term decision is the only decision on the table – though I suspect Steve Gibson, despite all the stodge to digest, will not want to to be rude to his regular dining partner and won’t ask the waiter for the bill until he has brought the just desserts menu.

It’s impossible to conceive that Boro won’t be fired up for their visit to the Potteries – the relegation wheel may be turning but I’m not expecting Boro to throw this one as Stoke seemingly have nothing meaningful to play for.  Come the full time whistle there will be a sigh of relief and hopefully Gibson won’t be left to ponder whether it’s Karanka who has feet of clay.

OK, as usual give your predictions of team, score and scorers – will it be victory on a fine Wedgewood plate for Boro or will Karanka be looking at a wedgie from the chairman as Boro misfire?

Boro hope to make an exhibition of Crystal Palace

So Boro are heading down to London this weekend for an appointment at the Palace where his royal high-and-mighty-ness the Duke of Lost Causes will hopefully bestow on our humble club the honour of three points for out long service in the defence of the clean sheet. Having made a right royal mess of his public duties as King of England, Big Sam abdicated his reign to allow a young former courtier at the Palace, Prince Gareth of South Gate to inherit his crown. Being caught jesting appeared not worthy of an excuse for a man who has seemingly waited longer than Prince Charles for the top job and the lords of the FA duly sent him into exile.

But the master of escapology has returned, though his hands appear still tied at Selhurst Park where the plan was to turn around a struggling team and chalk up another success. However it hasn’t gone to plan and Palace have lost six of their seven games in 2017 and have only scored in two of those. They didn’t get the bounce from Big Sam in the way Hull and Swansea did and the players confidence in the boss’s methods must now possibly be starting to come under question.

As a child, before I was into research of course, I often wondered why tomorrow’s opponents had such a seemingly odd name – Well in football terms, Crystal Palace first got an outing in 1861 as an amateur football club, which was created by the workers from the exhibition building after it was moved from its original location in Hyde Park to Sydenham Hill in south London. This amateur club only existed for around 15 years but after the stadium in the grounds of the Crystal Palace Exhibition building became the home of FA Cup final in 1895, the name was revived again ten years later by the owners of the building when they decided to form their own team as a means to attract visitors to the Palace.

During the First World War the football club were forced to relocate to Herne Hill after the Admiralty requisitioned the Exhibition building and then they subsequently took over Croydon Common Athletic Ground (known locally as the Nest) after Croydon became the only First Division team not to continue as a club after the war had ended. Finally in 1924, Palace moved to a purpose built stadium at Selhurst Park where they have resided ever since.

Well that’s enough history for today – now back to the crucial cliche-magnet relegation six-pointer on Saturday. This must be a game that Boro fancy they can get something from, though both teams seem to be struggling to score and the smart money may be on a goalless encounter and the last slot on MoTD, which has probably already been booked. Particularly as Allardyce has told his players that this is a ‘must not lose’ game for them. In his press conference, Karanka dismissed the notion that he had put a similar label on the game as he doesn’t want to place any undue pressure on his players. Though he re-iterated his belief that it was important not to lose a game if they couldn’t win it and he tries to ensure his team stays in the game as scoring in the 93rd minute is always possible (though not an often occurence to make it a game plan).

As for the team at Palace, Boro have injury problems with their full-backs – Barragan is still out and George and Chambers haven’t trained with the first team all week and are major doubts. It may mean that Gibson will play at left-back, allowing Fabio to return to his more natural right-back slot with Ayala and Bernado continuing their FA Cup partnership in the centre. The only other possibility would perhaps be a back three and some form of wing-backs – but I suspect Karanka won’t want to experiment too much on such an important game.

The Boro boss seemed to hint in his press conference that the team would continue in their more recent attacking vein, which could mean just the two defensive midfielders and possibly a start for Guedioura (the Watford lad) – though Downing has had some good games of late when he’s played and would want to impress his old gaffer. Perhaps Leadbitter and de Roon will get the nod this time but it could quite easily be any two from four.

I also expect Gaston on the left, Negredo in the middle and Adama on the right in terms of attack – so it could well be 4-3-3 or possibly even 4-2-1-3 depending on who is selected.

So will Boro leave the Palace bestowed with greatness or will Karanka fall on his sword as the team head back to Teesside with a knight to forget. OK, I know many of you have already had a busy week making predictions for the Exmil Challenge (and don’t forget the deadline if you haven’t yet submitted your entry to the Challenge closes at 14:00 on Saturday – an hour before kick-off) but perhaps you can indulge in one more – Score and Scorers, plus will Leo eat a Spanish Tortilla during the game – what are the odds on that Mr William Hill?

Time to get out the runes and make your calculations

Many of you will be familiar with the Exmil Challenge but for those who are not it has become somewhat of a tradition for fellow posters as the season reaches the sharp end. It’s a welcome chance to channel nervous energy by chewing over the possible outcomes of the upcoming games that involve Boro and our rivals.

The previous challenges involved Boro’s Championship campaigns and our rivals for promotion – but this year it’s all about staying in the Premier League and avoiding the dreaded relegation. Who will start to fade as the pressure mounts and which teams will become emboldened as they stack up the precious points.

The Challenge this year is in three parts, with the first part taking us up to the international break/borefest and a chance to reflect on how the situation is looking. By then it’s quite possible some of the teams currently involved will be waving at the relegation crowd from a safe distance, whist others will start to experience the mental strain and feel their energy being sapped by the all too real grip of relegation.

Last week I looked at the managers involved in the relegation struggle (A Brief History of Time in football management) which attempted to give an insight into how their team may fare by looking their previous experiences. Now it’s time to assess the possibilities of each team’s fixtures – for some of the teams playing below their potential a couple wins will lift the pressure and suddenly the game becomes easier. Swansea are an example of what winning games can do to a team and it would apply to most of the others too – particularly Leicester who not only can’t win but haven’t even scored in their last six games.

The difference with the predictions this time round (as opposed to promotion seasons) is that the relegation pack rarely win games. If you take a rejuvenated Swansea out of the equation (who have won four of their last six) the other six teams have only chalked up four wins between them from their combined 36 games – three of which were against fellow strugglers – twice Bournemouth and once against Palace. Basically, in the last four games, the  non-Welsh relegation teams are only averaging just over half of a point per game. So when making predictions do you play the percentages or do you take a punt on a few teams to try and gain an advantage.

Here are some words from Exmil

I thought that there would be no need for a challenge this year as I knew we would not be challenging for Europe but I was hoping we would not be involved in the relegation dogfight, I should have known that BORO do not do things the easy way. The challenge is the same as the past years, this year being in 3 parts, the first part taking us to the International break. Due to the success of Boro in the FA cup and other teams having fixtures being postponed due to their opposition being as successful as Boro, Part 1 and possibly Part 2 fixtures will be disproportionate until we know when the rearranged matches will be played, so in part 1 some teams will have 4 fixtures while others will have 3.

The format is the same as previous years, in that each entry will have to predict what each listed team will have at the end of each Part. If you predict the correct amount of points for a particular team, you will score 10 points but for every point + or -, you will lose a point. As an example if you predict Team A will have 28 points but they actually achieve 26 points you will score 8 points for that team, the same as if Team A actually achieves 30 points. Totaling the points you score for all teams will determine your position in the Exmil Challenge 2017 league and the points you score in Part 1 will carry forward into Part 2 then your total will carry forward into Part 3, at the end of which we will have our final placings and overall winner.

Werdermouth has devised an entry form to make predictions easier to submit (Is there no end to this mans talents) the form will show each teams fixtures and all you have to do is follow his simple instructions and press a button for win, draw or lose for each teams fixture and it will automatically increase that teams points total, depending whether you pressed win or draw. When you have completed the form and pressed submit, it will send an email of your entry to me.

Because the new interactive form allows us to easily record individual match predictions, these will act as a kind of ‘goal difference’ – so the tally of correct match predictions will be used to separate people on equal points. In the event of joint winners at the end of Part 3, the winner will be determined by the amount of correct match predictions throughout the challenge.

It is quite possible that other team (s) will enter the dogfight during Part 2 or 3, an example is Burnley who’s next four fixtures are away from home and since they have gained very few points (1, I think) away it is possible that they may plummet. If a team enters the fight they will be included in the next Part of the challenge. I wish everyone the best of luck in this years challenge but most of all, the best of luck to the mighty BORO.

Time to get Predicting

Thanks to Exmil for explaining the challenge and rules so now it’s time to get started. Because WordPress don’t allow programming code (such as Javascript) on their site I’ve had to place the interactive form at a different location – thankfully other hosting sites do allow code and I’ve used Neocities as it’s also ad free. Note: once all the predictions are in they will be collected into a table and placed on an Exmil Challenge Diasboro page.

You can go the form with this link: Exmil Challenge Entry Form

Karanka will be hoping that Oxford miss the boat

So this week it’s back to the distraction of the FA Cup – a chance to see Boro score goals (can they top Downing’s beauty from the last round) and do that thing which doesn’t involving losing or drawing – I think ‘win’ is the word we’re looking for.

The metaphorical hat has been kind to Boro again and we are once more at home to lower league opponents – though in my book any team that dispatches Newcastle by putting three past them should be regarded as welcome guests rather than opponents.

At yesterday’s press conference Karanka seemed relaxed but determined and won’t be taking Oxford lightly – ‘I’ll definitely be putting out my best XI’ the boss announced – though with the usual disclaimer ‘I trust all my players in my 25-man squad’ that leaves the interpretation of what ‘Best XI’ means when it comes to picking the team.

It’s a great opportunity for Boro to progress and as Karanka put it ‘If we win on Saturday then Boro are only 90 minutes away from Wembley’ – or if you’re not wanting to get too carried away then Boro are two wins away from a place in the semi-final – putting it in those terms probably just made the guy prematurely eyeing up the roof of the Boro double-decker bus with an angle-grinder in his hand stop in his tracks.

So let’s focus on the team we’re up against on Saturday – they seem to be in pretty decent form at the moment, they’ve won 8 of their last ten games in all competitions scoring 20 goals and conceding 9 – they currently sit seven points short of the play-offs in their first season in League One. Since we’re up against a distinguished academic name – and I know some of you are expecting research these days – I’ve had a quick look at the Oxford story.

Oxford United actually started out in 1893 as Headington United, which was formed for the purpose of keeping the players of Headington Cricket Club fit during the winter (possibly a fact that wouldn’t have been allowed to be mentioned in the previous blog). Though it wasn’t until 1960 that the name was changed to Oxford United as a way of raising the club’s profile, which culminated in them gaining election to the football league two years later after winning the Southern Division – which rather interestingly in some kind of neat FA Cup Symmetry they replaced our previous opponents Accrington Stanley who had gone out of business the previous season.

Incidentally, I actually wonder if the name change was undertaken with being elected to the League in mind – it may seem arcane now but there was no promotion to the football league until 1986 and clubs wanting to join had to plead their case at the League’s AGM along with the bottom four of Division Four, who had to resign and then seek re-election. The member clubs then cast their votes and the four clubs with the highest number votes were members for the next season. Critics of the system claimed it was a bit of a stitch-up as the chairmen of each club were quite pally with each other and it was notoriously difficult to become a member. (here’s a link to the history of Football League admission if you’re interested)

In 1982, Oxford United nearly went out of business and they were saved by media mogul Robert ‘Captain Bob’ Maxwell – back in the days when megalomaniacs were content to own a football club rather than run entire countries. His agenda turned out to be a merger with Reading in order to create a new club called Thames Valley Royals – this was averted thanks to protests from both sets of fans despite Maxwell threatening to fold the club if it didn’t go ahead.

After the failed merger, Jim Smith took over as manager and made excellent use of the Mirror Group pension fund by gaining promotion from the Third to the First Division in successive seasons to make Oxford a top-flight club – they even won the League Cup in their first season whilst narrowly avoiding relegation. Then in 1987 Maxwell resigned as chairman to take over at Derby County and his son Kevin took over instead. The following campaign saw the football pundit Mark Lawrenson take the manager’s job as they languished at the bottom of the table – but it was perhaps a Lawro challenge too far for him and they were duly relegated – incidentally, he was sacked three-months into the next season following a disagreement with the chairman over the sale Dean Saunders to his father’s club Derby.

Then following Captain Bob’s mysterious death after a failed attempt to swim across the Atlantic from his luxury yacht moored off the Canary Islands, the collapse of his business empire sent Oxford United into insolvency – new owners in the form of a biomass company were eventually unearthed though they were unable to sow the seeds of recovery and the club suffered a slow decline back down the divisions until in 2006 they dropped back out of the Football League. After a four-year absence they returned to League Two with former Blackburn manager Michael Appleton taking charge in July 2014 and last season saw them promoted to League One, as well as making the final of the EFL Cup.

So on to the game tomorrow, despite Karanka’s coded ‘Best XI’ remark – and that he’s said he’ll not even be thinking about Crystal Palace until Monday – I expect changes. Everyone is fit except for Barragan, including George Friend, though given that he limped off in the last round it may be tempting fate to include him tomorrow. Perhaps Ayala will get a game and maybe Gibson will be better suited to a cup-tie than Bernado.

Again, hopefully we’ll go for just the two defensive midfielders and maybe Downing will get another shot at midfield given that Guedioura is cup-tied. Bamford didn’t even make the bench last week so perhaps he’ll be rewarded with a start along with Gestede too. Ramirez hasn’t had much game-time recently so he may play an hour – but is it the kind of game where a silly challenge risks a suspension with a red?

OK, surely Boro will not slip up on Saturday – it would be a crime to waste this opportunity and one which even Oxford’s Inspector Morse will struggle to find a motive for. So will Karanka push the boat out in the Cup and leave Oxford oar-struck or will Boro make a complete cox-up and be left with the blues. As usually feel free to make your predictions, score, scorers and at what time will the crowd burst into ‘Que sera sera, whatever will be will be, we’re going to Wembley [in 90 minutes or so].

A Brief History of Time in football management

It’s around about this time in the season that some football managers glance over their shoulder and discover a huge black hole is in danger of swallowing them up. The gravity of the situation means some may be in danger of crossing the Premiership survival event horizon, from which there is no escape. Their best hope is the journey through the wormhole into the Championship will not stretch their credibility as managers to breaking point.

You could say managers careers are a bit like quarks – up, down, top, bottom, strange and charm[ed]. It will take the finest footballing brains to calculate the best way to achieve survival in the coming weeks – though I doubt even Stephen Hawking would be able to find the right equations to help get some clubs out of the quark-soup they find themselves in.

So Aitor Karanka has six rivals in his battle to avoid relegation – a mixture of the up-and-coming, the tried-and-tested and the unpredictable. They’ve all come to the Premier League through different journeys but one thing they have in common is they definitely don’t want to blot their copy-books with a relegation. Some are household names but others are less well known but who is best-suited to the task at hand? I’ve done a bit of research and tried to summarise their careers so far – from starting out as a player to getting on to the manager’s merry-go-round. It’s by no means a comprehensive assessment of them as managers, but it may give you a brief insight into how they got where they are now.

Eddie Howe (39) – Bournemouth

Appointed: Oct 2012 – Position: 14th – Points: 26 – Form: DLDLLL

Howe spent nearly all his career as a defender with Bournemouth until it was cut short at 29 by a knee injury – he then took on the role of the Cherries reserve team coach and eventually was given the opportunity to manage the first team in January 2009 as they struggled at the bottom of League 2. He managed to overturn a 17 point deficit and escape the relegation zone and then went on to achieved promotion to League 1 in his next season, despite a transfer embargo still in place on the club.

He was snatched by Burnley in January 2011 and took them to 8th in the Championship in his first season – though he returned to Bournemouth in autumn 2012 after failing to settle at Turf Moor. He won promotion to the Championship in his first season back and two years later he took the Cherries to the Premier League. He gained a reputation for playing attractive passing football and managed to keep Bournemouth in the top tier by finishing five points above the relegation zone on 42 points.

Paul Clement (45) – Swansea City

Appointed: Jan 2017 – Position: 15th – Points: 24 – Form: WLWWLW

His playing career never progressed beyond non-league level, though his father Dave was a right-back for QPR and his brother Neil a defender at WBA. He chose instead to concentrate on coaching from the age of 23 and obtained his UEFA ‘A’ licence in 1999. He was soon appointed a coach at Fulham’s academy and also worked with the Republic of Ireland’s U-21 squad.

He eventually joined Chelsea’s coaching set-up in 2007 and was made a first-team coach in 2009 under Gus Hiddink. He was subsequently appointed assistant manager to Carlo Ancelotti and they won the title in his first season. He continued his relationship Ancelotti and followed him to PSG, where they won the French title in their second season. Then in 2013 he became assistant manager at Real Madrid when Ancelotti became head coach and went on to win the Champions League in their first season, but a trophyless second season got the Italian the sack and Clement walked out a few days later.

In June 2015 he got his role as a number one and was appointed manager of Derby County following Steve McClaren’s dismissal, but despite being comfortably placed in 5th with only one defeat in his last 19 games he was surprisingly sacked the following February. Once again Clement joined up with Ancelotti, this time at Bayern Munich, but after six months he took up the offer in January 2017 from Swansea to become their manager and save them from relegation.

Claudio Ranieri (65) – Leicester City

Appointed: Jul 2015 – Position: 17th – Points: 21 – Form: DLLLLL

Ranieri started playing football as a defender with Roma but achieve little first-team experience there and spent most of his 12-year career with less fashionable Italian clubs such as Cantazaro and Catania where he played in the first and second tier – though he managed to achieve four promotions as a player.

He moved into management initially at amateur level in Italy and then with a small minor club before joining Cagliari in 1988 where he made his name by getting them promoted from the third tier to Serie A in successive seasons. He developed a reputation for playing in a style that allowed for a smooth switch in tactics during the game.

This success lead to a short stint as manager of Napoli during the end of Maradona’s time at the club where he achieved a fourth spot in Serie A, but was dismissed in his second season after being knocked out of the UEFA cup. He then took over a Fiorentina and gained promotion to Serie A in his first season, then flirted for a time with the possibility of winning the title in his third season before falling away into fourth spot.

In 1997, Ranieri moved to Valencia where he established them as a growing force in Spanish football but only achieved a fourth place finish in the four years he was there – he left a popular man with the supporters and was responsible for developing several promising young players including a certain Gaizka Mendieta. He then briefly managed Athletico Madrid but apparently jumped before he was pushed by notoriously impatient chairman Jesus Gil as the club struggled financially.

Then in 2000 he arrived in England to become Chelsea manager, where he was tasked with rebuilding an ageing squad. It was when he was given the nickname ‘The Tinkerman’ in 2002 for his constant use of squad rotation though arguably it eventually paid dividends as a fresh squad made a late run and qualified Chelsea in the Champions League for the first time, which was achieved despite limited signings as the club struggling financially.

The arrival of Roman Abramovich put Ranieri’s future in doubt as the Russian coveted a big name manager, after speculation linking Sven-Goran Erikisson he was finally relieved of his duties as ‘Special One’ Jose Mourinho was appointed. Though it’s worth noting that the nucleus of Jose’s title-winning squad had been assembled by Ranieri and he’d built the foundations by increasing Chelsea’s points tally in each of his four years in charge.

Next up came a return to Valencia to replace Rafa Benitez who had just won the Spanish Title and UEFA Cup and was off to Liverpool. But criticism of his rotation policy together with an autumn slump and ejection from Europe lead to his dismissal after only seven months in charge.

After a two-year absence from management Ranieri returned to Italy to take over at Parma in mid-season to help them avoid relegation – a task he succeeded in with some eye-catching results along the way. There was speculation linking him with a return to England at Manchester City and Parma decided not to extend his stay but in the end Ranieri headed to newly promoted Juventus in June 2007 on a three-year deal. It started well and he finished an impressive third in his first season and the next season also began strongly but a two-month slump in form left many criticising his team selections and despite finishing third again Ranieri was dismissed at the end of the season.

Though he was soon back in work as manager of Roma and did well in his first season and topped the table for a period but was beaten to the title by Jose Mourinho’s treble-winning Inter Milan. His second season didn’t start well and he fell out with club captain Francesco Totti and following a long bad run Ranieri resigned in February 2011. He was then installed as Inter Milan manager five games into the 2011-12 season after they’d lost 4 out 5 opening games – Ranieri got them firing again and they were soon back in the title race, but a run of only two wins in three months towards the end of the season earned him the sack.

Ranieri headed off to France and was tasked with getting Monaco promoted to Ligue 1, which he achieved in his first season as winners and then impressively finished in second spot behind title winners PSG in his second season. A brief spell in charge of Greece ended abruptly after losing at home to the Faroe Islands, before in July 2015 he was appointed manager of Leicester City and the start of one of the most amazing stories in modern footballing history as they went on to become Premier League champions.

Marco Silva (39) – Hull City

Appointed: Jan 2017 – Position: 18th – Points: 20 – Form: LWLDWL

Silva’s playing career was almost entirely in the second and third tier of the Portuguese league, where he performed as a right-back until he stopped playing at the end of the 2010-11 season whilst at Estoril. The club then made him their director of football but he soon found himself in charge after they sacked their coach. In his first season in management he won the league with Estoril to take them up into the top division and followed that up the next season by finishing 5th and qualifying for the Europa league.

He went one place better in his next season which caught the attention of Sporting Lisbon who gave him a four-year deal as their manager. In his first season at Sporting he finished third and also won the Portuguese Cup, but was incredibly sacked four days later for failing to wear the club’s official suit at a game.

Silva then moved to Greece to become manager of Olympiacos and won the title with six games to spare, including a run of 17 consecutive victories to set a new European-wide league record for this century. He then subsequently quit the club after his first season ended citing personal reasons. His success as a young manager has now brought him to the Premier League as the manager of Hull, bringing his management team with him. What appeared a lost cause as the club sold their best players now seems to be a possible chance to impress as he hit the ground running.

Sam Allardyce (62) – Crystal Palace

Appointed: Dec 2016 – Position: 19th – Points: 19 – Form: LLLWLL

Big Sam started as an apprentice at Bolton and made his Second Division debut as a centre-half in 1973 but took a couple of years to establish himself in the team. Bolton finally got promoted in 1978 and spent a couple of years in the top tier before being relegated with replacement manager Stan Anderson. Allardyce reportedly didn’t get on with Anderson and also felt underpaid so decided to move on.

He turned down Norwich and agreed to join Derby but a the last minute chose Sunderland after an offer of better money – though after two seasons at Sunderland he lost his place in the team and decided to leave. He turned down a return to Bolton because they could only pay half what he earned at Sunderland and instead made a surprise move to Third Division Millwall who not only matched his wages but gave him a £30k signing-on fee plus £10k loyalty bonus. He was actually offered the manager’s job at the Den in 1982 but turned it down as he thought at 28 was too young. Instead George Graham became manager but the two fell out after Sam refused to ‘grass’ on team-mates who broke Graham’s rules, he was subsequently frozen out and Graham agreed to pay £15k to cancel his contract.

Alladyce then ended up playing briefly in the US for Tampa Bay and it was perhaps a move that would have a lasting impression as his eyes were opened to modern practices in training and tactics that would later be a hallmark of his managerial career.

He returned to England but was a physical but limited footballer more known for his hard tackling than ability with the ball and after one season under Bobby Gould at Coventry was released and spent his subsequent playing career outside the top flight until he stopped playing first-team football.

Allardyce’s first coaching role was at WBA under Brian Talbot and it lasted two years until they were both sacked for losing to non-league Woking in the FA Cup. He then became player-manager at Limerick for one season which ended in promotion to the Irish Premier League and he returned to England to coach at Preston, including a short spell as caretaker manager – he left after two years ironically citing opposition to extreme long ball tactics.

He was appointed Blackpool manager in 1994 and it concluded by him being sacked at the end of his second season by chairman Owen Oysten from his prison cell after losing in the Division Two Play-offs. Big Sam then took on the manager’s job at Notts County but couldn’t stop them being relegated from Division Two – but the following season they won the league by 19 points and were already promoted in March. But Allardyce felt he didn’t get the financial backing required to take the club forward and resigned in October 1999 to join Bolton as manager.

After taking over at Bolton, he narrowly missed out on promotion in his debut season, losing in the 2000 Play-off final, as well as both semi-finals of the Cups incidentally – this was despite having to sell a key player in Andy Todd after he broke the jaw of assistant manager Phil Brown during a team-bonding exercise that went wrong. Bolton won promotion the following season through the Play-offs and Big Sam established them as a Premier League side over the coming seasons.

It was at the Trotters that he gained his reputation as an innovative coach using sports science and technological aids as well being open to alternative therapies like yoga and psychology – preparation and organisation were key elements to his success. After seven years at the club he eventually resigned in April 2007 with the club in 5th place, stating chairman Phil Gartside was unwilling to match his ambition and increase funding to take them to the next level and become a top four team.

Soon after he became Newcastle manager but his style didn’t go down too well with the locals and then following a bad run he was dismissed in January 2008 and replaced by Kevin Keegan. Allardyce then became Blackburn manager in the following December and kept them safely in mid-table for two seasons but when the Venky’s took over he was replaced a few months later by his coach Steve Kean. Big Sam then took over at newly relegated West Ham and achieved promotion through the Play-offs at his first attempt. Despite them finishing regularly in mid-table in the Premier League the fans didn’t warm to his style of football and many were quite vocal in wanting him out, though he remained in charge until his contract expired at the end of the 2014-15 season

Then following a bad start to the season at Sunderland he replaced Dick Advocaat as their new manager and once again successfully steered them out of the relegation zone by the end of the season – he was widely praised for his organised approach, which resulted in him being rewarded by being appointed England manager. Though his dream job didn’t last long as he was dismissed after only one game in charge following being secretly filmed explaining to fake businessmen how to circumnavigate FA rules on third-party player ownership.

Though his relegation rescue services have been called on once more, this time Crystal Palace hired him in December 2016 following the sacking of Alan Pardew.

David Moyes (53) – Sunderland

Appointed: Jul 2016 – Position: 20th – Points: 19 – Form: DLLDWL

Moyes began his senior career at Celtic and won his only major playing honour with them, a 1981-82 Scottish Championship medal. Most of his playing days were spent as a centre-back in the lower English leagues with the likes of Cambridge and Shrewsbury, then after a few years back in Scotland with Dunfermline and Hamilton he spent the last six years of his career at Preston. He combined his playing at Preston with coaching roles, working his way up to assistant manager before being offered the manager’s job in 1998 after the club sacked their manager.

Moyes had been preparing for management since his early 20’s, he was a fully qualified coach at 22 and was known to take notes on the techniques used by his managers. He avoided the drop with Preston and got to the Play-offs the following season before winning the league the year after to gain promotion to the second tier. The following year he almost won promotion to the Premier League but lost in the 2001 Play-off final.

This feat had got him noticed by bigger clubs and was appointed manager of Everton in March 2002. Moyes spent over ten years at Everton and was generally applauded for his achievements with a club who were no longer part of the ‘Big Four’, though his first four seasons were a mixed bag of good followed by bad seasons but after that he usually finished just outside the top four. Only once did he qualify for the Champions League but lost in the qualifying stages and never got beyond the last 16 of the Europa League in four attempts.

Sir Alex Ferguson saw in the disciplinarian Glaswegian a man in his own image and he became his anointed successor in July 2013 – however he had a hard act to follow and never settled quickly into the job, which left United suffering a bad start to the season. After getting knocked out of the Champions League at the quarter-final stage and only sitting in seventh spot in the league, with no chance of making the top four, Moyes was sacked after only ten months in charge.

In November 2014 Moyes returned to football at Real Sociedad in La Liga, a role that lasted almost exactly a year before he was once more sacked for a poor start to the season. Sunderland appointed him to replace the England-departing Sam Allardyce in July 2016 as their seventh manager in a little over three years.

Exmil Challenge

The Exmil Challenge will be starting again next week – It’s the chance to predict how you think the relegation teams will perform until the end of the season. It will be in three parts, with the first part taking us up to the International break and a chance to reflect and compare notes before part 2.

Exmil will be managing it but I will be assisting with the process by creating a form that enables you to easily select your predictions, which then get automatically submitted directly to Exmil’s mailbox – I’ll also add a few stats and tables to help you decide too.

We need to wait until after the FA Cup weekend to see which fixtures will be affected by the Quarter-final games – so it will probably be next Wednesday.

After Costa Blanca, Boro now need to escape Costly Blanks

The Boro squad have been preparing for Saturday’s important game at home to Everton with a team-bonding mini-break in Benidorm – hopefully the sun, sea and setup in the micro-climate of the Costa Blanca will have our boys relaxed and ready to relaunch their season.

Though perhaps Benidorm is not usually the expected destination of millionaire footballers and maybe on hearing the news a few may have felt like X-Factor judges houses contestants chosen to go to Louis Walsh’s house in Ireland instead of The Bahamas with Simon. The local language will no doubt have been a problem for some, especially the Spanish speakers in the squad who will probably only come across retired English couples in search of two-for-one coffee and cake deals along the promenade – though perhaps several of the squad will have taken advantage of the wide selection of tattoo parlours and maybe purchased a ‘Keep calm and carry on’ T-shirt for the boss.

Anyway, the location is not so important as it’s a chance for everyone to enjoy the company of each other – especially the new arrivals. Also it’s an opportunity for Gaston Ramirez to put the machinations of January behind him and re-introduce himself to his team-mates. No doubt he’ll simply explain it was a misunderstanding from his agent who when heard the Italian manager of the current champions wanted him he had assumed it was Chelsea and not relegation rivals Leicester – Plus that ‘great deal in China’ for Stewie turned out to be 24 piece dinner service from Argos instead.

So back to the serious business of ensuring our Premier League survival – if Boro are going to pick up much needed points then it’s quite likely they will need to be garnered at home – particularly as we’ve only managed a solitary win on the road this season and that was way way back in August against neighbours Sunderland.

But Boro only have seven home games left this season, three of which are against Arsenal and both Manchester clubs, so somehow Boro will need to start making them count if they are to get some wins on the board. Though if you compare Boro’s stats at the Riverside to those on their travels there isn’t actually too much difference. Maybe we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on creating fortress Riverside and just play the team in front of us.

Here is a statistical comparison of our 12 Home and 12 Away matches – we have generally created a third less chances away from home but that has only equated to us being 25% less effective in terms of achieving points.

Possession Shots On Target F A Pts
Home  Total 128 32 11 14 12
 Average 52% 10.7 2.7 0.90 1.16 1.00
Away  Total 89 24 8 13 9
 Average 46% 7.4 2.0 0.67 1.08 0.75

The debate seems to be about how Boro should go about achieving those much needed wins – should we hold our nerve and continue to keep it tight and hope to nick a few victories – or is it now time to be more progressive in games we should be identifying as winnable. I think the best we can hope for is a return to 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 with a non-defensive midfielder. Though anyone expecting a few days in the sun will have relaxed Karanka’s game plan will surely be disappointed.

Though if Boro are going to start winning games then they will need to start working the opposition keeper more – the stats in the tables show we only average a measly two shots on target per game, which means if the opposition score then both have to go in to win the game. What’s apparent is that the amount of possession Boro have makes little difference in the number of chances being created. Somehow the team has to be more productive with its possession to convert it into chances created, as it doesn’t hurt the opposition to pass in front of them.

Since I know many of you like to browse the Boro stats occasionally (some more than others I believe), I’ve gone to the trouble of collating this table of our match stats for each game this season. It generally shows the picture of a team who is not creating too many clear cut chances but Boro definitely sit back and try not to be beaten against the better sides. It also doesn’t appear that possession converts into good chances to score against many of the opposition teams.

Opponents Possession Shots On Target F A Pts
A Spurs 35% 8 0 0 1 0
H WBA 62% 11 3 1 1 1
H West Ham 62% 11 2 1 3 0
A Watford 54% 5 1 0 0 1
H Leicester 62% 9 1 0 0 1
A Man Utd 34% 9 2 1 2 0
A Burnley 54% 8 2 0 1 0
H Swansea 43% 10 4 3 0 3
H Liverpool 37% 8 3 0 3 0
A Southampton 45% 6 2 0 1 0
H Hull 61% 16 4 1 0 3
A Leicester 60% 6 2 2 2 1
H Chelsea 42% 12 1 0 1 0
A Man City 29% 5 3 1 1 1
H Bournemouth 40% 11 3 2 0 3
A Arsenal 25% 11 4 0 0 1
H Watford 64% 10 3 0 1 0
A West Ham 60% 9 3 1 1 1
H Spurs 42% 6 2 1 2 0
A Everton 48% 7 0 1 3 0
H Palace 58% 12 4 1 2 0
A WBA 59% 7 2 0 0 1
A Sunderland 53% 8 3 2 1 3
H Stoke 46% 12 2 1 1 1
Total 217 56 19 27 21
Average 49% 9.0 2.3 0.79 1.12 0.88

In fact Boro have failed to score in six of their last ten Premier League games and it is these costly blanks that have left us now just two points off the bottom. More urgency on the pitch is needed – we have occasionally seen Boro are capable of an incisive counter-attacking move that gets to the opposition box before they have set themselves – this is what we need more of and not only when we’re chasing the game at the end.

So Everton arrive to the Riverside in good form at the moment and are unbeaten in their last seven, scoring 19 goals in the process – whereas Boro have not registered a win in their last seven and only managed 3 goals. The only comfort appears to be that the Toffees are not so prolific on the road in comparison to their home form – with only 6 goals in their four away trips.

No doubt Boro will be focused on the threat from Romelu Lukaku, it’s possible Karanka will be tempted to re-introduce Ayala to counter his aerial threat but a lot will depend on whether George Friend is fit to play and the knock-on effects his absence entails. If Fabio continues at left-back, Chambers will probably play right-back again – but it would be much better to have him partner Gibson and Fabio return once more to right-back. Also I wonder if we will see Gaston back on the pitch – Karanka seemed to suggest not but he’s still our best option on the left.

I’m still not convinced continuing with three defensive midfielders will lead to enough chances being created for Boro but Everton are almost a top six side and Karanka will be concerned about their threat more than re-addressing ours. What was worrying was the comment from Karanka that “We had a chance to beat Tottenham last week, and we are more mature and more experienced now than then” – unless I missed something we only had a chance to pull off an unlikely last minute draw. Positive thinking is all well and good but it needs to be also credible.

So will our nicely-bonded bunch of Boro boys stick together and arrive home ready to put three points on the board or will they come unstuck and come to a sticky end at the hands of the Toffees? As usual give your predictions of the result, score, attendance and any ideas on the new tattoos that some of the lads may be sporting.

Boro a bed of roses but thorny issue of relegation remains

Aitor Karanka’s demeanor in Thursday’s press conference was one of relaxed contentment and there were no signs of the prickly character of the previous week where he showed his displeasure at Boro’s January transfer activity, or more precisely the lack of it. Gone was the furrowed brow and the smouldering eyes as he wandered linguistically along the boundary of what was acceptable in his blunt criticism of the club’s performance.

Now he said that he couldn’t be happier with the 25-man squad he now has at his disposal – ‘the best squad in the world’ as he describes it – and everything at Boro was now ‘a bed of roses’. It was probably not the late signing of Adlène Guedioura from Watford that had given him this new horticultural perception of his lot at Boro but perhaps the strain of the transfer window had previously taken it’s toll – especially having seen all his first choices getting crossed off his shopping list one by one, not to mention the prospect of losing his most creative player in Gaston Ramirez.

The Boro manager also brushed aside questions about his future at the club and the suggestions that he was trying to get himself sacked – he declared that he doesn’t need the money so he will just walk away when he no longer wants to be in charge at Middlesbrough – so the chairman has no need to reach for the gun as everything is looking rosy in Karanka eyes.

So let’s remind ourselves of what the ‘best squad in the world’ looks like:

No. Shirt Position Player Country
1 26 Goalkeeper Víctor Valdés Spain
2 1 Goalkeeper Dimi Konstantopoulos Greece
3 12 Goalkeeper Brad Guzan United States
4 3 Left-Back George Friend England
5 40 Left-Back James Husband England
6 4 Center-Back Daniel Ayala Spain
7 5 Center-Back Bernardo Espinosa Colombia
8 6 Center-Back Ben Gibson England
9 22 Center-Back Dael Fry England
10 25 Center-Back/Right-Back Calum Chambers England
11 17 Right-Back Antonio Barragán Spain
12 2 Right-Back/Left-Back Fábio Brazil
13 7 Midfielder Grant Leadbitter England
14 8 Midfielder Adam Clayton England
15 14 Midfielder Marten de Roon Netherlands
16 34 Midfielder Adam Forshaw England
17 27 Midfielder Adlène Guedioura Algeria
18 19 Forward Stewart Downing England
19 21 Forward Gastón Ramírez Uruguay
20 11 Forward Viktor Fischer Denmark
21 37 Forward Adama Traoré Spain
22 18 Forward Cristhian Stuani Uruguay
23 20 Forward Patrick Bamford England
24 10 Center-Forward Álvaro Negredo Spain
25 29 Center-Forward Rudy Gestede Benin

This is the squad that will decide the fate of the club this season and it’s now up to Aitor Karanka to get the best out of them. Hopefully, Gaston Ramirez will get back to doing what he does best – he’s been arguably our most likely player to unlock defences – we can’t really afford to have him sulking on the sidelines and biding his time for the summer. He needs to accept that it was unrealistic of him to expect a move to a team now equal on points with Boro in the relegation scrap. Though I noticed Karanka has used Leicester as a measure of Boro’s success – stating we are level on points with the current champions.

So on to the game on Saturday, the tea-time tussle on television – well it’s going to be tough for Boro as Spurs have not lost at home this season and we really need some points. I’m no expert but it’s quite possible that the Boro boss will setup to defend and keep it tight. It’s probably going to be an away at Arsenal or City or United (OK I’ll just stick with away) type performance. The bookmakers give us little chance of victory at 14-1 against – though decent odds in a two-horse race, where we generally only lose by an odd goal or put in a plucky 0-0. Dafter quids have been squandered on less likely outcomes.

Gaston still has sore-knees from pleading for a transfer so is out of the equation – surely Boro could do a lot worse than play Downing on the left, who looked again up for it in the recent cup game. There’s been much talk of Guedioura adding a new much-needed dimension to the middle of the park – but we shouldn’t suddenly expect a goal-rush from midfield, as despite his apparent eye for a long-range shot, he’s generally only bagged 2-3 goals a season in the last few years.

I hope and I’m sure Adama will play, but on the right where he’s dangerous, and not moved to the left to accommodate Bamford on the right. We must play to our strengths if we are to get points on the board – but again Fabio will need to cover for George, which may see Chambers at right-back again.

I suspect we will play with the requisite three defensive midfielders – though maybe Karanka will surprise us with three at the back again – maybe he will be encouraged by Adama’s improved defensive display last Tuesday and make him a wing-back. Though Boro should be up against two very good wing-backs with Walker and Rose and will be tested down the flanks.

So how many of you are feeling as rosy as the boss? Can the Boro get something from this game, maybe nil-nil or will we be in the bottom three before kick-off? So usual predictions, team-sheet, score and how far out will the new bloke from Watford have his first crack – 35 yards?

 

 

The clock is ticking on shaping Boro’s season

What happens in the next 24 hours may well define Boro’s season – firstly the transfer deadline day clock is ticking but will we sign the attacking midfielder that Karanka feels he’s been lacking? Or will it be goodbye Gaston as the player who has so often been the creative link between our midfield and attack leaves the club to join a relegation rival?

If that wasn’t enough to destroy the fingernails of Boro followers, there’s a little matter of a crucial home game against West Brom to occupy our minds – after failing to win in the Premier League for five games this has taken on the mantle of must-win for many. Boro are almost running in treacle as the relegation pack trip over themselves as they chase us like footballing zombies who don’t know they’re dead. Three points against the Baggies may just be enough to bury the hopes of a few of those clubs heading for the Championship life of the living dead.

Though what shall we make of our transfer hopes now that our targets have been picked off one by one. The question is whether we have actually missed out on somebody who was going to turn our season around. It’s hard to tell if any of those who we missed out on offered any guarantee of fixing the problem of scoring goals. Many Boro followers may sometimes wonder whether even the likes of Messi and Ronaldo would struggle to score in a Boro shirt.

The problem is of course world class players are not what Boro can chase – we must look to polish the kind of players who show promise or are out of favour with their clubs. Boro won’t be signing that finished article, the completely rounded player who dictates the game and takes a half-chance given the opportunity. No we are unlikely to actually sign someone who will suddenly make supporters content and confident of survival.

But judging from Monday’s press conference it seems Karanka is also not happy with the performance of Boro’s recruitment team. “I said I wanted to improve the squad and at the minute we didn’t.” was his curt response to questions as he proclaimed he had identified his preferred targets six weeks ago and didn’t know why they weren’t here.

The Boro boss seems to be in finger pointing mood at the moment – last week it was the the disrespectful crowd distracting his players from trying to execute his proven game plan – this week it’s the Boro recruitment team failing to capture his targets to make the required improvements to his squad. It’s almost as if Karanka has started lining up his excuses in the event of failure and placing the blame elsewhere – or maybe he’s just feeling the pressure and showing his frustration at events.

So one thing we can probably say for sure is that anyone named in the squad for Tuesday’s games won’t be heading off in the January window – and that applies to our targets too. The chance of any player dashing into the shower after the game, washing-and-going, then jumping into their top-of-the-range motor and heading off for a medical are slim.

Which brings us onto Gaston – he’s trained with the first team the last few days but Karanka said he was surprised to be informed by the physio that the Uruguayan was not fit to play on Tuesday. That sounds to me like Boro are perhaps leaving the window open for Gaston to leave – he’s now available to attend a medical should the need arise – despite Karanka telling us ‘100%’ that Gaston is not leaving Boro.

One player I expect to leave is Rhodes – surely there is no point pretending he is part of Karanka’s plans anymore – it’s not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘how much’ as Boro rub their collective chins and pretend they want more until the clock runs down and they say ‘OK we’ll accept your undisclosed offer’ and spin the figures to shown they got the best deal they could.

I’ve got a hunch the club will have a deal up their sleeves – they need to give everyone a lift – the management team, players and supporters need a lift before the vital game against West Brom and Steve Gibson will want to show he means business. The question is who will it be? Someone ‘Young’, perhaps a ‘Cheeky’ bid…

So you’ve got your work cut out with predictions today – not only is there a game with team line-up, shape, scores and scorers to get your head around – but who’s going to turn up at Rockcliffe at the eleventh hour to rescue our season and who’s heading out of the door?

Karanka to select ‘Best XI’ for FA Cup cake walk?

Boro have been handed a great chance of making the last 16 of the FA Cup with a home tie against a side languishing fifth bottom of League Two – though Accrington Stanley appeared to have saved their best results for the Cup with victories against League two promotion hopefuls Luton and at League One play-off contenders Bradford.

So Accrington Stanley, who are they? For most of my childhood they were simply a quiz question posed in the playground – what is the name of the only English league club to go out of business? They later rose to prominence in the much recently quoted advert for milk from the late 1980’s – where a young Scouse boy was told by Ian Rush that if he didn’t drink up his milk he’d only be good enough to play for Accrington Stanley – to which is friend replied ‘Who are they?’ Though whether on the back of this advert the club became the destination of choice for lactose intolerant footballers we shall probably never know unless it becomes the belated subject of a PhD thesis.

On paper it looks like ours to lose, though Boro will still need to approach the game with the right attitude and that’s our main danger. However, it goes without saying that with Tuesday’s crunch game at home to West Brom, we not only expect Aitor Karanka to utilise the full depth of his squad, we would be shocked if he didn’t rest nearly all his key players.

Having said that, any Boro XI that lines up should have enough to see off the League Two strugglers – in fact it’s a chance for some of our fringe players to remind the boss that they are ready to play. I’d expect Bamford and Gestede to get their first starts and probably a chance for Fischer to get some game time too. It’s also a game you’d want Leadbitter playing to keep everyone on their toes – though who plays with him is tricky, perhaps one for Clayton, though perhaps 60 minutes max to keep his midfield fresh for Tuesday. Also choosing a back four is not straight forward but I fancy Gibson will be rested, and since Chambers has a stress fracture in his foot, it will be an opportunity for Ayala to reclaim his starting berth [though not until after the cup as he’s still suspended for one more game] .

It will also give Boro supporters a chance to see someone other than Negredo play up front and perhaps without three defensive midfielders who surely will not be required to contain the threat the opposition pose – or at least you would hope so.

Of course the backdrop to the game will be played with the memory of the manager’s comments made following the West Ham game still fresh in many minds after he reiterated his point in Friday’s press conference – though he seems to have qualified them by pointing the finger more at the new supporters, those glory hunting fair weather types who have forgotten how Boro got to the promised land – he reminded us “We won promotion because the people believed in the style”

Though he appears to have exaggerating his point by claiming 18,000 impatient newbies have recently arrived to take their seats but the facts show average attendance is only up 6,000 on last season – so it’s possible the pending re-education programme will need to be scaled down somewhat.

Though should we pander to this view that a significant chunk of the crowd were seemingly able to usurp Karanka’s authority by ordering the team to play long balls towards the opposition goal in the foolish belief it would lead to a goal? The ‘awful atmosphere’ that the Boro manager said was created by these uneducated ‘non-believers’ chanting ‘attack, attack attack’ apparently left the players unable to concentrate on their measured sideways passing and instead drove them helplessly to launch the ball towards the 6′ 5” Gestede who had just been thrown on by the boss. Well not on his watch – and rightly so!

Those who may have been expecting the boss to back down and say sorry will naturally be disappointed “I don’t need to apologise to anybody because I have to apologise when I make mistakes and I don’t think I made a mistake to ask for respect for the players”. With this ‘lack of respect’ exemplified by his recollection of the stadium rapidly emptying with 5-10 minutes yet to play – though his perception of time appears to have been distorted.

So after saying all that, the Boro manager then claimed to be puzzled that some supporters thought he was criticising the crowd “I can’t understand because it wasn’t a criticism. If someone had taken it as a criticism that’s their problem”. He then continued by praising the supporters in general, such as the Red Faction and the traveling support – maybe he was teasing those present in the press conference by placing a huge metaphorical piece of cake in and out of his mouth and pretending to munch. Did he still have that piece of cake or did he eat it? wondered the audience.

So rather than backtrack completely he’s decided to walk a semantic tightrope between those who believe in his methods and those who don’t and have become frustrated with the lack of goals. Perhaps he looked at himself in the mirror on Monday morning, quite possibly with slight tinnitus following a debriefing phone call from the chairman, then reflected (as mirrors so often do) while practising mouthing the words ‘sorry’ and realised some things are just best not said.

But we move on, the smouldering core of Karanka has not melted on this occasion and there are games to be won – besides, the main issues of the moment are being framed by the January transfer window. Crowd favourite Gaston Ramirez has handed in his notice and the pursuit of replacements and additions is reaching it’s climax (or anti-climax depending on your view).

As for the game ahead – Surely Boro can’t lose this one? A draw and replay would be unhelpful to say the least and a loss would make only those planning a mid-February warm weather post-window bonding excursion to Spain happy – Mmm I think I may have inadvertently stumbled upon a potential premiership survival cunning plan…

So it’s unlikely to be a cake walk but will it be Boro into the fifth round hat or Boro into their sun hats in February? So as usual make your predictions, and I’ll be particularly impressed if anyone gets close to the starting XI, but don’t get too carried away with scoreline as my post-match graphic will struggle after four scorers.