Sun sets on Boro's season as survival hopes head south

As Boro approach the twilight of their Premier League year – and head off to a less depressing footballing climate on the south coast for a sunset stroll along Bournemouth pier – they are no doubt starting to contemplate an early retirement in sheltered accommodation from the top flight.

As our creaking group of seasoned campaigners take up residence at the Premiership retirement home to rest their weary limbs and exchange fading memories of past glories, perhaps they’ll have their spirits raised by an occasional little sing-song as they reminisce… “we’ll win again, don’t know where, don’t know when, but I know we’ll win again some sunny day”.

OK, it’s never easy to make that decision about whether or not a loved one can continue to take care of themselves and despite trying to ignore the signs – such as that rather nasty fall down the table – action is now required. It seems obvious now, but we’ve long started to notice that when our ‘last-of-the-summer-wine’ midfield of Compo Clayton, Foggy de Roon and Cleggy Leadbitter cross the half-way line they appear to have seemingly forgot why they left their own half – then look rather quizzically at each other before giving the ball back to Victor ‘Meldrew’ Valdes – who simply can’t believe it has returned once more to him.

Then there’s that rather embarrassing problem about waking up the next morning to discover we can no longer rely on having a clean sheet – fingers have also been pointed at the cover but perhaps the problem at the back hasn’t been helped by all those bumps and strains constantly being picked up – plus it’s also been widely observed that old Barragan has had continued problems with his hand-eye co-ordination.

Deciding to move forward is never straight-forward and that is true of Boro as they are prone to amble rather indecisively towards their opponents goal. Whilst feeding a rather grumpy Negredo has never been an easy task, the problem of uncle Adama uncontrollably dribbling when he’s being spoon fed can’t be ignored for much longer.

So before we get caught napping it’s time to look at the possibility of rejuvenating our campaign this week as we head rather appropriately to the Vitality Stadium to play Bournemouth – before entertaining in midweek an even more doomed-looking Sunderland. Psychologically, Boro can take heart from the prospect of coming up against two teams that they have already beaten this season in Bournemouth and Sunderland – both of whom are still under the same management – unlike our recent encounters with the other teams we have beaten in Swansea and Hull who were under new improved regimes.

So first up is the trip to the south coast and in some ways the Cherries are a kind of Arsenal-lite opponents – they are the antithesis of Boro and are better going forward than defending. It’s possible the kind of team that just lost out to Arsenal could indeed claim a rare victory this weekend and set us up nicely to let our hair down for the brush with the Wearsiders – otherwise that local encounter will be more reminiscent of two bald men half-heartedly fighting over a comb.

Putting the comb to one side, Steve Agnew is still waiting to experience that expected new-boss bounce and has started to come under fire in some quarters as people cast doubt on whether he is best suited to the role. Though to be fair, his introduction and plans to make Boro a more potent force have been blighted by a defensive injury crisis that has forced him into making experimental formations to fit the available personnel.

In truth, I struggle to see how deploying a three-man defensive shield of essentially one-dimensional stoppers in conjunction with second and third choice full-backs, who are not predominantly gifted with attacking ability will lead to any substantial improvement. The only glimmer of hope is that Gaston is looking interested again and Downing is playing better than at any time in his second spell at Boro – plus Negredo does seem to know where the net is.

What Boro would also give now for the return of the early-season Adam Forshaw, who was at one point was being touted for an England call-up such was his all-round game. With a fading Leadbitter ruled out perhaps he’ll get a chance to impress once more. Though come this season’s post-mortem, questions will need to be asked about the overall quality of the squad, which appears to have been superficially bolstered with far too many projects and punts.

Defensively, it seems Fabio may actually be available again as his initial injury has now been deemed less severe – the question is whether he’ll get the nod and if so will he go to right-back and will Friend retain his left-back slot? Many would place them as our first-choice full-backs but a rather interesting observation by Dominic Shaw in the Gazette showed that they’ve only once started in a back four for Boro. I’d expect Gibson and Ayala to continue in the centre and they will be in front of Guzan again as Valdes still has sore ribs.

So I think we’ll see a similar shape to the Arsenal game with Forshaw replacing Leadbitter – though at least one of the three midfielders really needs to play more progressively. My main criticism with Agnew is that he lost his nerve after the Hull game and instead of tweaking his new two-man defensive midfield, he abandoned it altogether. OK, Boro made defensive errors in that match and Ben Gibson had a rare off-day – but Hull actually scored with four of their five shots on target so one game shouldn’t be the judge of a system. Though I think Agnew has now decided to only switch to a two-man midfield when chasing the game and prefers instead to start more cautiously – how quickly the first law of self-preservation takes hold when in the hot seat.

I suspect the no-longer guided missile of Adama will be launched at some point from the bench but he’s increasingly looking more like a NFL running-back making yardage with his head down until he’s brought down to give Boro a ‘first-down’ in a dangerous area. Whilst exciting as he is, I think if we get any kind of decent offer for him in the summer it would probably be wise to accept it as his awareness of his surroundings means he could be a very long-term project indeed.

Well it’s prediction time, though with 15 games without a win opting for a Boro/Corbyn victory at the bookies may earn you enough to actually buy your own personal retirement home. Anyway, as usual give your view on the score and scorers – plus how many yards will running-back Adama make?

So come the final whistle will the residents of the Premiership retirement home be having a long-awaited Mother Brown style ‘Knees-up’ round the bridge table or will they be tearfully singing ‘Wish me luck as you wave me goodbye’ to Boro’s lingering top-flight hopes?

As I post this match preview the very sad news has just been announced that Ugo Ehiogu has died following his collapse at Tottenham’s training ground yesterday. His untimely death at only 44 has left those who knew him extremely shocked and all Boro fans who remembered him, not only as a great player but as great guy too, will I’m sure want to send their condolences to his family and friends.

Time to resurrect season that's been crucified by lack of goals

Boro it appears are now looking for a miracle to maintain their Premier League status as we contemplate at Easter our seemingly entombed position at the depths of the table – talk is about needing four or five wins but the doubting Thomas’s out there will point to the simple fact Boro have not managed a single top-flight victory since before Christmas.

The strikers have been stigmatised for their lack of goals – Boro have failed to score in more than half of their games this season – which has even resulted in being declared the second most boring team in the history of the Premier League. Aitor Karanka may have had his disciples among the faithful but his failure to avoid being tempted by the cautious ways of the Red Devil’s manger ultimately lead many to believe he was no longer the Messiah to keep Boro in the promised land.

Boro supporters are now contemplating a return to the wilderness of the Championship and after waiting seven long years to escape the last footballing famine it’s going to be a heavy cross to bear. OK it’s still not a forgone conclusion – and Saturday’s results have kept a flicker of hope alive – but among the hardened cynical old men of Teesside whistling ‘always look on the bright side of life’ is not usually a tune that is part of their Riverside repertoire.

Whilst results have continued to disappoint there has been somewhat of a fresh approach by Steve Agnew’s new coaching setup. As the anointed successor he has probably been handed something of a poison chalice by Steve Gibson, as he’s not only had to pick up the players, but has been hit with a defensive injury crisis at the very moment he’s been tasked with making the team more progressive.

Though what we have seen is that Agnew is not attached to a particular system and has been quite pragmatic with his tactics. In his four games he’s tried to shuffle his resources and despite two nil-nil’s, there definitely has been more attacking intent on display. He’s even managed to get an off-the-pace deemed Bamford looking close to his old self in a matter of a few weeks.

Though if Boro are going to have any chance to resurrect their season then they are going to need the key players to show their best form – and preferably at the same time. Negredo needs to play more like a striker – though getting onto to crosses has not been remotely a nailed-on scenario for him this season – he’s been for much of this term starved of service so that stoic fasting rather than a feast of goals has been the order of the day. Though he’s not blameless and has often been guilty of not getting into centre-forward positions after the opportunities to score fail to materialise – however, he did look dangerous when he came off the bench against Burnley.

So Boro welcome a rather porous Arsenal side to the Riverside who have lost their last four games on the road in the Premier League, conceding three goals in each of those defeats. Whether Boro can further upset an embattled Arsene Wenger, who continues to  contemplate his future, by making that five away defeats on the spin may pretty much decide both our fates. With two games in hand on Hull it would give the theoretic opportunity (as until the first win arrives I class multiple victories as nothing more than a mathematical exercise) to overhaul them on goal difference if three points at home to Sunderland can be also bagged.

There is good news on the injury front as Friend’s sacred calf has at last been healed and Fabio’s three-game concussion break has finally been knocked on the head. With Ayala looking better with every game it gives the prospect of a return to a more solid and mobile back line. Also Gaston Ramirez has shaken off his ankle injury so in theory will be contemplating putting in a long-awaited performance for any scouts accidentally sitting in front of  the TV.

There has been talk of continuing with a 3-5-2 formation as the way forward – personally, I don’t think Boro have the midfield players to make that formation work effectively as it essentially means three centre-backs matched with three defensive midfielders – admittedly Boro looked more solid and did try to get forward but actually created very little real attacking threat until the substitutions came on against Burnley. So if Boro decide against a back four, I think 3-4-3 may be a better option (or variations of) in order to have more attack-minded players on the pitch. Perhaps a front three of Gaston, Negredo and Adama would worry the Gunners defence more than other permutations would.

OK time to put all your chocolate eggs in one basket and contemplate your predictions – will Monday be the start of an Easter rising up the table? or will Boro freeze like an Easter bunny caught in the headlights of expectation? As usual give your thoughts on the score and scorers – plus will Arsene Wenger’s failing eyesight fail to see a Boro nailed-on penalty along with the Ref.

A satirical re-boot of some 'highlights' in Karanka's reign

As Boro’s post-Karanka plight continues to take on a rather gloomy tone, I was reminded by Craig Hignett’s recent interview on his departure of a few satirical posts that I wrote on Untypical Boro that gave an alternative view of some of the more bizarre moments of Aitor Karanka’s reign – including Karanka’s ‘apology’ after being dismissed against Blackburn, the post-Charlton-gate statement and Leo’s tussle on the sidelines against Preston.

 

Higgygate

Higgy-gate

After Craig Hignett recently spoke publicly for the first time about his sudden departure from Boro as assistant to Aitor Karanka – he explained : “I only had one fallout with Aitor but with him there’s no coming back from it. If you fall out with him, that’s it. It can never be repaired.”

Hignett added: “He was difficult to work with at times. The way he works is very intense. He’s a perfectionist. Sometimes that can be a good thing, but on the other hand, I think there is a time and a place to enjoy what you’re doing. At times you couldn’t do that. Aitor just wanted to micro-manage everything, and I struggled with that at times, if I am honest.”

Hignett’s tenure at Boro came to an end in December 2014 a few days after Aitor Karanka was banished to the stand following Blackburn’s late equaliser in a 1-1 draw at the Riverside (incidently scored by Rudy Gestede) and was subsequently charged with improper conduct by the Football Association.

“It was my first sending off,” said Aitor. “Again I want to apologise because I know I made a mistake.

Though Karanka didn’t actually make the apology himself as he went on to explain “After the game a member of my staff apologised to the fourth official and the referee also.”

It was subsequently announced a few days later that Karanka had decided to part company with his first team assistant Craig Hignett with immediate effect – even though earlier that Saturday on the BBC’s Football Focus the Boro boss had praised Hignett saying: “I didn’t know a lot of things and he is the person who helps me with these kind of things. He helps with training sessions and he is very, very important for me.”

Anyway here is a video link of the Karanka interview where he gives his take on these matters after they had occurred.

All of which lead me to give this satirical view of how the departure of Craig Hignett may have come to pass (posted on Untypical Boro on 6 December 2014)

Before we move on to Millwall, I opened a bottle of Merlot earlier and listened to the latest installment of the Tripe Supper to see what the latest take on Higgygate was but I was left feeling that the tipping point moment still hasn’t yet been pinned down.

I was also surprised that nobody made reference to the latest snippet to come from Karanka that following the Blackburn game he sent one of his members of staff to the apologise to the officials for his conduct. Am I the only one who finds that a bit unusual? And perhaps the identity of the member of staff involved in this proxy apology may shed more light on Higgygate – I think the scenario may have unfolded something like this…

[Shortly after the game finished the coaching team arrive in their room and the mood is one of anger – Karanka is clearly animated and speaking Spanish loudly – Higgy looks on and tries to show some empathy in the absence of knowing what is being said]

AK: ‘Unbelievable, the ref has clearly missed an obvious foul, how can this guy send me off to the stands for simply questioning the decision’

LP: ‘I think he thought you may have pushed the fourth official’

AK: ‘Nonsense, I didn’t push him – I was only trying to demonstrate the push on Dimi’

LP: ‘Still you could be in big trouble, so you better apologise before he writes his report’

AK: ‘if I personally go and apologise it’s going to look too obvious – maybe you should do it for me and explain it was a misunderstanding.

LP: ‘No way, we Latin types are too Macho to do that apologising nonsense

CC: ‘What about the English guy? they’re always saying sorry – if you stand on their foot accidentally they will tell you sorry and it even looks like they mean it’

AK: ‘Good Idea Carlos!’

[The conversation switches to English]

AK: ‘Craig, as my most important assistant I would like you to tell the officials that we are sorry for the way we behaved earlier’

CH: ‘We? I didn’t do anything’

AK: ‘It will be better coming from a native English speaker – one of us could easily say the wrong thing and make it worse’

CH: ‘OK, but you owe me one’

[Higgy leaves the room and goes to speak with the officials and returns a few minutes later]

AK: ‘How did it go Craig?’

CH: ‘Not too bad – I basically said you were sorry you pushed him and he wrote it in his notebook’

AK: ‘You said what? but you were supposed to explain that I didn’t push him! – That’s it, they’re definitely going to ban me now – OK from now on Leo is in charge of the cones!’

CH: ‘Take it back boss, the cones are a red line for me’

AK: ‘Sorry Craig, but I’ve made this decision for the good of the club’

Charlton-gate

Karanka Charlton-gate

When Aitor Karanka did not take charge of the Sunday match against Charlton after his walk-out from the training ground two days earlier on Friday following an argument at a team meeting it seemed Boro’s promotion campaign had been derailed.

His future at the club looked to be uncertain after walking out and rumours were reported in the press that he had told friends that he was finding Stewart Downing ‘difficult’ and that he wasn’t his signing.

In a statement, the club said: “Middlesbrough can confirm that Aitor Karanka did not take training on Saturday morning and he will not be in the dugout on Sunday and instead assistant head coach Steve Agnew will take charge of the team for fixture at Charlton Athletic.”

They added “We appreciate supporters will want to know further details, but at this time the club cannot make any further comment and is solely focused on Sunday’s game at The Valley.”

The game was subsequently lost 2-0 as Boro failed to perform against second-bottom Charlton and it was announced a few days later following talks at the club with Steve Gibson that Aitor Karanka would continue as head coach.

In his first interview after Charlton-gate (shown in this video link), Aitor Karanka seemed to dismiss the whole episode – it was as if nothing had ever happened

It was this attempt to brush the whole episode under a rather large spun red rug that prompted me to post this satirical club statement on Untypical Boro…

We wish to acknowledge that today’s interview with Aitor Karanka has cleared up the misunderstanding that there was indeed a misunderstanding between him and anybody at the club – there was no confusion about him staying at the club by either him or the club.

In order to avoid further confusion he was simply told to stay away from the club until any misunderstanding or confusion had been cleared up by Steve Gibson by meeting personally with all parties to clarify that there was definitely no misunderstanding.

We wish to thank Steve Agnew for helping the club avoid any further confusion by helping to deal with the misunderstanding that there was a misunderstanding.

Thanks to everyone for their understanding in clearing up this matter

[That was a clarification statement issued on behalf of the Campaign for Plain English after being translated using Google from the original Spanish text entitled The Reign From Spain Falls Mainly Short of Plain]

Boro-hemian Rhapsody

Leo throw-in

In April 2016, during a hard-fought 1-0 victory against Preston at the Riverside an unseemly squabble on the touchline broke out after Leo Percovich grabbed a dead ball and refused to return it for the Preston throw-in.

The discovery that Leo’s name was in fact short for ‘Galileo Galilei’ provoked me into thinking of the whole episode with Queen’s operatic Bohemian Rhapsody played as the backing track and it inspired the following post on Untypical Boro…

Rather interestingly, Leo’s full name is Galileo Galilei Percovich Lopes (note the Leo derives from the end of Galileo) – it may be significant in explaining the ‘throw in’ incident…

Perhaps from the corner of his eye he caught a little silhouette of a man from the Preston bench going for the ball and decided to take on the role of Scaramouch (which literally translates as ‘the little skirmisher’ and was a 16th century clown from Italian improvised comedy theatre).

He certainly seemed to lead the Preston bench a merry dance as they tried to get hold of the ball – but whether some Boro supporters had chanted to ask whether he can also do the Fandango, is not clear.

With Leo having a face like thunder and with lightening reactions he grabbed the ball and the situation appeared very very frightening.

He thought he heard the supporters chanting his name

Gallileo, Gallileo,
Gallileo, Gallileo,

Then Karanka tried to diffuse the situation by explaining that Leo was just a poor boy from a poor family and he should spare him from this monstrosity

[But the Preston bench were having none of it and shouted]

Easy! come on! easy! will you let it go

[But Leo’s passion got the better of him and grasped the ball even tighter as the skirmish ensued]

Bismillah! No I will not let it go – let it go
Bismillah! No I will not let it go – let it go
Bismillah! No I will not let it go – let it go
Will not let it go let it go (never)
Never let it go let it go
Never let it go ooo
No, no, no, no, no, no, no

[At this point the fourth official intervened and Preston finally got to take their throw in]

Boro look to rebuild belief as Dyche arrives with Fat Lady

Hot on the caustic heels of the Flamingo Land dance into oblivion comes a chances to pick up the pieces with the Legoland encounter with Sean Dyche’s Burnley. Whilst The Clarets have been quaffing the points on their own turf down at the moor they’ve been unable to construct a single victory away along the Lego-brick road. Though should Boro go in search of the fabled wizard it won’t be a quest for a heart or courage, as that is something that the team is not evidently lacking – though perhaps a new brain is needed at the club that can be picked at over the summer in order to find a new way forward.

Though guest of honour on Saturday will no doubt be the much maligned presence of the infamous Fat Lady as she becomes increasingly confident of getting the gig at the Riverside. The only question now seems to be which song she’ll opt for – “Going down with the Mackems” is perhaps not one of Verdi’s most well known arias, so she may instead possibly opt for something more pertinent like ‘Time to say Goodbye’ or even La Traviata – which also translates as ‘the one who goes astray’ – since somehow, other than the passes from midfield, plenty has gone astray in our debut season given the club spent seven years fighting to get here.

But it’s not over just now as she hasn’t even got to the mic yet – though I suspect there will be little chance of wrestling that off Mark Page – god knows many have tried – however, she may just be able to throw her weight around to grasp it off him, but given the volume setting of his PA I fear every window in Teesside will be shattered along with our hearts should she succeed in hitting those high notes.

Still even for the most optimistic it’s hard to envisage where Boro go from here – Agnew was initially confident that he knew what was needed to turn the season around. He believed that a shift in emphasis to a more attacking game-plan was going to pay dividends – but a slightly crest-fallen head coach declared his side were ‘naive’ after the Tigers clawed their way out of the bottom three at Boro’s expense – and admitted they didn’t get the balance right between attack and defence.

Though what that balance exactly is appears to be somewhat of a conundrum amongst the ever increasing resigned Boro faithful. Does it mean a return to three defensive midfielders following our boys shipping four goals on the Humber? If so, where does that leave our attacking intent and will that once again leave Boro with an ineffective isolated centre-forward?

If you lose your nerve after one failed attempt of trying to take the game to the opposition then surely the whole basis of your methodology is then almost worthless. What we actually witnessed against Hull was a poor defensive display by probably our weakest back-four line-up for several years given that Ayala is barely match-fit, Barragan is low on quality and Husband made his PL debut. Karanka managed adequately with two defensive midfielders for the vast majority of his tenure – indeed he probably played 4-4-1-1 in nearly half his games given that Boro played with dedicated wingers and a number ten and centre-forward. We shouldn’t think three defensive midfielders has been the rock on which Boro previously succeeded – that system has actually delivered us very few points indeed.

Perhaps a return to the tried and tested Clayton-Leadbitter axis would make more sense to start games with as they work together – plus Grant has more range in his passing that is required by at least one of the midfield duo. OK perhaps he’s not got the legs for the PL but he should be able to still see us through to the last half-hour.

It’s not going to be easy for Agnew against Burnley as he’s basically got the same defensive selection dilemma to deal with – Friend and Chambers still not fit and Fabio still serving his seven-day concussion break. Husband looked a bit shell-shocked when he came off and Downing spent most of the first half covering for him – as did Adama for a lacklustre Barragan – so would the Boro boss go again with this selection? not if he’s watched the match video at least once I suspect.

I’m almost wondering if he will be forced to plump for a back three – and personally I’d play my biggest three against Burnley – so Ayala, Fry and Gibson it would be for me. But perhaps 3-4-3 may be the best way to play a back three for Boro with Downing on the left and someone really good on the right (who’s name escapes me). That would leave a front three of Negredo (left), Gestede and Adama. Though it’s highly unlikely Agnew will play his fourth formation in four games as he may leave himself open to the accusation of managing on the hoof if it goes wrong.

So despite Sean Dyche denying he’s playing mind games by declaring “Every team we play will all be thinking, ‘we don’t want to be the side they beat’. They know people will be reminding them of the fact we haven’t won away” – he most definitely is. But Boro really have no choice in trying to win the game and Agnew won’t want to be too cautious in what is now more of a ‘must win’ game than the last two ‘must win’ games. At least the new Boro boss is good with numbers as he has concluded “I’m confident, three points can bring you closer to the rest” – personally I’m almost convinced four straight wins will bring us very close indeed – perhaps too close!

So will Boro send Sean Dyche back to Legoland in pieces after building a winning platform? or will the cracks start to show in a hastily constructed Boro team as they fall apart and leave the supporters bricking it over our slim survival chances. As usual it’s time make your predictions – will Boro finally win a game and if so what will be the score and who will the scorers be (yes we can now suggest more than one goal is possible even if one should have been disallowed) – plus any suggestion for what the Fat lady should sing if she ends up taking centre-stage?

 

Boro's survival hopes now at last chance saloon

Boro may have been quick on the draw this season but it’s now time to start winning games as that well known gambler Slim Chance just rode into town and doesn’t like the way we are looking at him. Our situation is certainly looking dicey as we approach the last throws of our Premiership survival prospects and Boro’s gunslingers have spent most of the year in the corner of the Saloon shooting craps (or something similar).

After returning home from the far west at the weekend the new boss has been patching up his boys and may be ready to trust them with live ammunition instead of allowing them to continue to fire blanks. As part of target practice, I imagine Big Rudy has been rounding up the cattle at the Hurworth Ranch with his banjo and will be desperate to avoid being branded as a misfiring hand.

The main problem (in addition to the obvious main one) for Boro is in defence – we may have one of the meanest in the league but it’s now one of the most thread-bare. The Doc has rightly signed off a concussed Fabio, who needs to be kept out of the fray this week for his own welfare – no doubt a trick a few supporters may be contemplating if things go badly this evening. George may be ‘in a good place’ according to Agnew but that place is not in the team just yet.

Also Chambers has only just started light jogging (or walking as Adama would call it), which just leaves Barragan as the only fit (in the physical sense) regular full-back – apparently he did throw his hat into the ring as an option for left-back – but sadly it was ruled an illegal throw. Incidentally, when I look at Adama’s leg-like arms, am I the only one who thinks he could probably throw a ball out of the ground?

So there now seems a possibility that Boro’s estranged Husband might get a chance to play away from home today – he’s waited two years for his opportunity and given we’ve got no other options there is now every chance that he’ll finally be given a ‘vote of confidence’ – which will no doubt come as a relief to Downing who’s ageing legs probably need to be employed further up the pitch.

There’s also a possibility that a lame Gaston Ramirez will have shrugged off his ankle problems and be ready to put in another limp performance for the cause. Then there’s Negredo, who for me has started to look like he wants to play as an attacking midfielder rather than an out-and-out striker – perhaps the Spanish left-footer should be deployed on the wings instead?

As it stands following Tuesday’s games, Leicester have rattled up their fifth successive win and are now disappearing over the horizon and riding into the sunset – as are Burnley who just chalked up their tenth home win against a surely doomed Sunderland – the only good news is that The Clarets have yet to win on the road (I know what many of you are thinking but don’t even go there).

So realistically it’s looking like two from three to join not so slap-happy David ‘women are girls and should know their place’ Moyes and his not-so-lucky Black Cats – hopefully Swansea won’t show Spurs something they kept from revealing to us at the weekend.

So take a deep breath and get ready to make your predictions – though in case you are getting all optimistic and have been allowed access to combustible foam hands it’s probably better to do a Bill Clinton and not inhale. The one nagging stat (other than the three goals in three months and no wins) is that new Hull boss, Marco Silva, has never lost a home game in his four years as a manager – probably exemplified by his last game when finding his team one down against the Hammers switched to 4-2-4 for the second half – almost a UEFA McClarenesque strategy – he’s still available I believe…

So will our brave bunch of desperados start shooting from the hip with all guns blazing in an attempt to see off their rival gang and live to fight another day? or will our patched up bunch of cowpokes receive a tactical bum steer as Boro’s survival hopes finally bite the dust. As usual predict you line-up, score and scorers – also will Adama be under instructions to block-tackle Barragan as he attempts to fetch the ball for a last-minute throw-in?

SOS (Save Our Season): All old Boro hands on deck

There’s been a new dawn at Boro with a new crew in charge and a few familiar faces back on board as the club embark upon a journey this week that will hopefully keep our season afloat. These next three fixtures potentially offer the team a safe passage out of the bottom three but it won’t be by any means plain sailing. The supporters have been in the Doldrums for many weeks now but following Karanka’s mutual decision to walk the plank it is hoped by many that it’s now all hands on deck and we can avoid that sinking feeling.

It’s now two week since Aitor Karanka left the building and it appears the club have moved on quite rapidly. Perhaps it’s just the way of football but many of the appointees of Karanka have pretty smartly followed him out of the door and a new regime is already starting to take shape.

It appears the club is undergoing a de-Spanification with the departures of First Team Fitness Coach Carlos Cachada – Senior analyst and assistant coach Juanjo Vila, assistant analyst Guillermo Alonso Salinas and interim goalkeeping coach Marcos Abad.

Presumably, these departures must have been at least partly the decision of Steve Agnew as no doubt he will have preferred to appoint his own people instead. Which to me indicates that there has been a decision that a new approach was needed, though perhaps more accurately that a change in emphasis is required.

Carlos Cachada had the title of fitness coach but his role was wider – coincidentally, Jonathan Woodgate revealed to the Gazette earlier this year that Cachada took care of much of the defensive coaching at Rockliffe Park, though it was normally Karanka that devised the drills. So does that mean we’ll be seeing a different approach at the back and will the appointment of Stewart Downing’s brother-in-law as a first team coach be as Cachada’s replacement?

On the face of it, Woodgate doesn’t have a particularly strong background in coaching and has only just achieved his badges – indeed the 37 year-old’s previous employment after leaving Boro was as a scout in Spain for Liverpool – So why has he been brought to the party?

I think he is probably going to take on the role of conduit between the players and Agnew – as a former Boro squad member, he not only knows the players but was a popular figure and commands their respect. There is a suggestion that Woody will perhaps be able to encourage that vital extra few percent out of the players because of the currency and bond he still retains – particularly as Agnew will probably need to distance himself personally now he is the main man picking the team.

Another Middlesbrough lad, under-23s coach Paul Jenkins has now made the step up to assist Steve Agnew with first team duties. In an interview on the MFC website he spoke about how he has known Steve for around 15 years from their time working together at the Boro academy, in which they have developed and shared a footballing philosophy. His role will be to devise with Agnew training sessions in co-ordination with Adam Kerr, who is head of fitness, to help achieve the changes on the pitch that they want to make. He also revealed that the players were enjoying these intense sessions and there was a good atmosphere in the camp with the players raring to go.

In Addition, Stephen Gent has stepped up from his role as opposition analyst to Head of Match analysis to replace the outgoing Spanish analysts – so despite the departures it appears that there should be some continuity in the level of match preparations.

Joe Jordan completes the coaching team and has 30 years experience both as a manager and as an assistant – notably to Harry Redknapp at Portsmouth, Spurs and QPR, where he’s hopefully picked up the key points on how to avoid relegation. Redknapp said of Jordan as a coach that “You could put your life on him…He’s quiet, but when he says something, it is worth listening to.” – whilst The Herald described Jordan the coach of having ‘presence and natural authority’. The only caveat is that he admittedly didn’t expect to have another job in football so perhaps he’s not looking at Boro as a move to enhance his career.

Oh, and just in case any more characters in the coaching staff were needed, we have Leo back on duty as goalkeeping coach – it’s quite interesting that he has remained at the club given the other departures and his close association as possibly the de facto number two under Karanka. Perhaps he and Agnew got on well, he certainly wears his heart on his sleeve – though sometimes he looks like he is in the mood to wear other people’s hearts on his sleeve too.

Overall, I think the primary purpose of the coaching team is simply to galvanise the Boro players to get them in the right frame of mind for the task ahead – I suspect whilst many were on board with Karanka, no doubt there were several players who no longer bought into his methods and had lost the desire and motivation necessary at this level. The tactical role of the new team appears to be about changing the emphasis from stopping the opposition to empowering the players to take control of their own destiny.

A team will function best when everyone is pulling in the same direction and it was almost inevitable that once results entered a downward spiral, especially the prolonged goal drought, the cohesive fabric of the whole team would start to wear thin. I’ve already covered the potential pitfalls of Karanka’s methodolgy (A big club methodology for a small town in Europe) and the reality of any manager is that football is primarily a results-based occupation.

There can’t be many occupations where you can never reach a certain level or comfort zone – rather it expects year-on-year improvement to display that you are still capable of doing your job – in fact logic demands that your chances of managing that are pretty slim and at some point you will hit the wall. The problem is often one of belief from those under your control and from those above you who are assessing your performance – not to mention the thousands of observers and media pundits who will scrutinise your performance and make their opinions known.

The hope now is that Boro get that famous new manager bounce – it’s not guaranteed but it has become expected by supporters – I suspect you are probably more likely to get that bounce when you remove the point of tension and lift the pressure. Though for Boro, the real point of pressure was not Karanka but it is achieving that first victory and ending our horrendous run. I’m of the view that the players probably didn’t need a new figurehead coming in who would try to impose a radical change of tactics – they probably didn’t need the prospect of embarking on new set of instructions that some may fail to grasp or execute and feel under pressure to impress. They most likely need to feel confident that what they are being asked to do personally is something that is within their capability and will work for them – the time for heavy duty tactical drills and methodologies is pre-season once the players have been refreshed by a break.

Boro now have three crucial games in six days and realistically there will be little time on the training pitch in-between games. A methodology based on stopping the opposition will have little opportunity to be honed tactically, so worrying about opposition first could possibly lead to indecision and paralysis on the pitch. Personally, I believe a better strategy for these games will be to give the opposition something to keep them occupied in their own half – the problem that Boro have had this year was that the opposition knew we would be playing with only one man isolated up front and would slowly build from the back, allowing them time to get into position.

The trip to Swansea is up first and they have labelled this a crucial game for their survival hopes – Boro know what they now have to do, it’s catch-up time, but the teams above us now have something to hold on to and that in some ways it puts the pressure on them. In addition, they now don’t know what to expect from Boro – will it be business as usual or will it be something completely unexpected? Boro have the opportunity to catch Swansea on the back foot, their weakness is clearly in defence and it’s not that long since they normally shipped three goals a game and having lost their last two games they will be a little less sure.

Other teams above us have already had their bounce after their change of managers – the football laws of gravity determine that at some point they will start to fall again after the initial energy starts to dissipate. Perhaps the depth and velocity of Boro’s fall will allow us an even greater bounce?

Boro should treat the Swansea game as a must win – whilst one point is not a bad result given Swansea are a team we want to overhaul – three would give us that momentum that is urgently needed and give vindication to the new setup that would suddenly make the trip to Hull eagerly anticipated. With Burnley at home next Saturday, there would be a real prospect of finding ourselves out of the bottom three – or at the very least with escape within our grasp.

The team for Swansea will be interesting, though perhaps the line-up will contain few surprises. The defence has been bolstered by the return of Ayala to training but it appears George and Chambers are still quite a bit away from returning. It would normally mean Fabio playing left-back but I wonder if Husband will get his chance – options are limited at full-back so it’s likely to be Barragan. I’m still hoping that the three defensive midfielders has been scratched from the play book as we really need to get our attacking players on the pitch if Boro are going to start winning games. There has been many calls for 4-4-2 or probably 4-4-1-1, with Negredo supported by Gestede – that would probably mean Downing on the left and Gaston on the right.

OK, time to give your thoughts for the week ahead – will Boro be swanning around after the game on Sunday showing off their three points? or will Boro be rehearsing their Premiership swansong after yet another defeat? As usual make your team predictions, score and scorers – plus will Harry Redknapp be spotted in the crowd with his dog in a Boro scarf?

Exmil Challenge Part II

Just a reminder that entries for the second part of the challenge should be submitted before 3pm on Saturday. You can find a link to the interactive entry form by clicking on the blue Exmil Challenge banner at the top of the right column


Entry Form Part 2 Banner

Week of Destiny

As a special match preview bonus ahead of the week of destiny, Redcar Red has been casting his eye over the fixtures that involve our relegation rivals.

Looking ahead to the week of destiny obviously we are well aware of our own fixtures for these three games but there are some other interesting ties that will also shape our fortune not least of all on the second weekend when we host Burnley at the Riverside.

The day before we go down to South Wales, Palace will have had to negotiate Chelsea at the Bridge so highly likely they will return empty handed. Hull are at home to the Hammers and that could go either way I suppose but what are the odds of Snoddy hitting the winner after a disappointing spell in East London.

Leicester I suspect will continue to pull clear as they seem to have rediscovered their form of last season but they are at home to Stoke and Hughes’s men seem capable of grinding out results and with Champions League distractions who knows how their season will pan out. Sunderland are away to Watford where I think they will in all likelihood lose but could sneak a point, being honest if we have to start worrying about the Makems then we may as well give up now.

Midweek sees Leicester and Sunderland go head to head, not sure how I want that one to pan out. If Leicester are going to keep pulling away then we may as well see Sunderland tonked but with nerves jangling who knows. Palace are away to the Saints so lets pray for a home win. Spurs travel to Swansea and have plenty still to play for. Then on Wednesday Boro are away to Hull, we know only too well what is at stake down on the Humber that night!

It’s the following weekend though that could see us really restore hope and belief assuming we get a bit of luck during the previous two schedules. Travel sick Burnley will come to a fired up Riverside cauldron complete with bad boy Barton. Hull are away at Man City, Swansea away to the Hammers while Leicester are hopefully choking on the Toffees. Sunderland “entertain” Mourinho’s United while Palace face the Arsenal. There is a good chance that some of our mini league competitors could lose ground whilst we could make up three points.

If in worse case we finish the week of destiny two points adrift of safety there is always that home game against Sunderland but it would be nice to put a few of our fellow strugglers to the sword and push on ourselves. Two wins and a draw, I can dream can’t I? I suppose three straight wins would be being greedy and unrealistic considering we have only won four all season but its now or never!

This Weekend

Chelsea v Palace
Hull v West Ham
Leicester v Stoke
Watford v Sunderland
Swansea v Middlesbrough

Midweek

Leicester v Sunderland
Hull v Middlesbrough
Southampton v Palace
Swansea v Spurs

Next Weekend

Man City v Hull
Middlesbrough v Burnley
West Ham v Swansea
Everton v Leicester
Sunderland v Man Utd
Palace v Arsenal

Boro need a united front to begin a post-Karanka revival

This weekend’s game was originally billed as the meeting between Aitor Karanka and his friend and mentor Jose Mourinho – now it is the beginning of a new phase in the club’s history and the start of an urgent quest for Premier League safety. The most obvious thing about Aitor Karanka’s departure is that he is no longer the focal point of the club and that in itself leaves Boro and their followers wondering what direction the club is going to take next. It’s hard to tell at this stage how much of the Spaniard’s methodology will be retained in the coming weeks.

The noises coming out of the club seem to indicate Steve Agnew is to be given a chance to become a kind of Teesside Shakespearean character – though hopefully the analogy won’t stretch to making a drama out of a crisis. On the face of it, this appears to be a high risk strategy – Boro are essentially putting their hopes of avoiding relegation on a man with no track record in management.

In his press conference on Friday Steve Agnew played it extremely circumspect and didn’t imply that his role was anything more than being in charge for the game against Man Utd. Though having just appointed Joe Jordan as his number two it would seem to suggest his role wasn’t about keeping the hot seat up to temperature for an imminent arrival. He also revealed that he had only a brief discussion with the Steve Gibson, who simply told him to enjoy it – though it didn’t include ‘while it lasts’.

It may well be that the Boro chairman doesn’t want to distract his new ‘head coach’ (apparently that is the chosen title these days as according to Agnew the one of ‘manager’ carries with it too much burden of responsibility with an all-encompassing role that is best spread among others) and realistically he needs to concentrate on preparing the players without the distraction of getting involved in setting out a plan of action – there will be time for that in the international break.

But Agnew has declared that this is a massive opportunity that Boro have given him and would like the job on a permanent basis as he feels he has served his apprenticeship and is ready to become the man in charge. Clearly, he has identified the need to score as the main problem to address and has confidently declared that he sees himself as a ‘creative coach’ – his intention is to ‘drip feed ideas into the group that will pay dividends’. Though if I’m being honest ‘drip’ sounds a tad on the slow side given the urgency of the task at hand – perhaps now is the time to turn the tap on to full!

Also rather interestingly he said ‘I have a clear view of exactly what’s needed’ – which raises the question of whether this had already been communicated to his former boss and have they already attempted to address the problem but as of yet without success. Though it’s also possible it fell on deaf ears and now this is his chance to try out his ideas.

Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised if Steve Gibson has decided to go down the familiar route of appointing a first-time manager – Since he became chairman in 1994 he has appointed Bryan Robson, Steve McClaren, Gareth Southgate and Aitor Karanka to their first positions as a number one – indeed it looks like it is his preferred option on that evidence.

By all accounts, the Boro Chairman rates Agnew highly and went to a lot of trouble to prise him from Hull just over two years ago and even blocked him from rejoining Steve Bruce at Villa recently with the carrot (or was it stick) that that would prevent him from becoming Boro boss in the future. So clearly he has been earmarked as the succession candidate and possibly in view of Karanka’s previous temperament issues, Gibson preferred him close to hand.

The advantage Steve Agnew has is that he obviously knows the players and it seems he is well respected by them too and doesn’t appear to have any baggage from the reported unrest among a few individuals that apparently Jose Mourinho has blamed for his friend’s departure. Though once you become the man responsible for deciding who plays and where, his relationship with the players will change – but the reality is that by the time any of them may feel they’ve been sidelined the games that will decide our survival will have already been played.

Unless Steve Gibson is waiting on a answer from someone of stature in the coming days then it will be down to Steve Agnew to save the club from relegation. The fact that the Boro chairman sees this as a better option than having Karanka in charge would appear to suggest the departed boss was out of ideas, energy and probably belief. So Gibson wants to ‘find out about Steve’ and regards him as ‘more than a safe pair of hands’ and sounds determined to avoid the drop after all the hard work of getting to the top table – but he’s had his ‘It is what it is’ moment and declared ‘Where we’ll find ourselves is where we’ll find ourselves’ – So let’s hope the old Garmin Satnav has been dusted down to find our way back.

The game itself is something of a free hit for Agnew – losing won’t be seen as failure and anything gained would be regarded as a success – even a goal would be greeted as an achievement and probably a sign of vindication. The worry of course is what our relegation rivals will manage before we take to the pitch – Palace are at home to Watford and a win for them would leave us trailing by six points. Hull are away to Everton, which is never an easy prospect but at the moment they are not the team to chase to escape the bottom three. A win for Leicester or Swansea would put them eight points clear and maybe out of reach, so Boro will be looking for some help before they play.

The team news is mixed with Friend, Ayala and Chambers still injured with Bamford also missing due to illness. The good news is that Bernado is fit so Boro have a reasonable back four to choose from, plus Gestede has recovered from his hamstring and is available.

I wouldn’t expect a major change in formation at this stage of the new regime but maybe just two defensive midfielders would help shift the balance in favour of scoring – maybe 4-4-1-1 would be the most adventurous line-up we could expect but who will get the number ten role? Gaston, Downing or even Adama playing off Gestede. Perhaps he’ll just keep it simple and try to encourage intent – though that’s what Karanka has seemingly tried in recent weeks without much success. It may be that something ‘different’ is actually needed to prevent the players reverting to old habits.

Well it’s a new start and anything can happen in theory – will we see a Boro bounce at the expense of a somewhat depleted Man Utd. I’m sure Mourinho would take great pleasure in seeking revenge for the ‘sacking’ of his friend as he chose to call it. Maybe he’ll be emotionally distracted and try to overplay his hand – I wonder if this will be a typical Boro moment?

So time for predictions – what kind of team line-up will Agnew decide to show his hand with? And what will be the score and will we have a Boro goal to cheer?

Karanka departs Boro

So Aitor Karanka has left Boro today and Steve Agnew is in charge for the game against Manchester United.

There hasn’t been that much light shed on the unexpected departure by the club but they are adamant that it was by mutual consent – which basically means they both decided it wasn’t working.

Matters came to a head following a boardroom discussion on the best way forward to ensure Boro’s survival in the Premier League – it appears the conclusion arrived at was that some kind of change was needed. Rather surprisingly Aitor Karanka seemed to have agreed that the best way forward for the club was going to be without him in charge.

Whether Karanka was unsure what more he could do to turnaround Boro’s slump in form and perhaps the idea of him changing his methodology in what remains of the season proved to be something he was not willing to contemplate – no doubt as that would basically be an acceptance that he was wrong in his approach.

It’s clear that some players were struggling to see where they fitted in under Karanka’s system in the same way he was struggling to see how they did too. This was probably a significant stumbling block given the need to get everyone pulling in the same direction – so a decision on the way forward was needed.

Interim manager Steve Agnew is well respected by the players and likewise by the board so he will have everyone onside with plenty of goodwill to succeed – but it’s going to be a another surprise if the Boro chairman will trust him with devising a survival strategy until the end of the season.

Whilst there has been little indication of whether there is someone waiting in the wings, there must be a candidate in mind who has been sounded out. It would be unlikely Peter Kenyon has been hanging out with Gibson and Bauser these last few weeks just for the small talk. It’s more than likely a relegation avoidance strategy will have been hammered out and a short list of candidates that would offer the best solution whittled down.

The ideal scenario will be the new boss walking into the dressing room just before kick-off on Sunday to send the adrenaline surging in the players before they walk out into the pitch. Boro really need points a.s.a.p. to put the brakes on their slide back to the Championship so every extra percentage point must be grasped.

No doubt the media will be touting the usual suspects of possibilities that will have the supporters pleading insanity on the chairman’s behalf – but one thing is for certain the person put in charge needs to not only hit the ground running faster than Adama can but should also be an excellent communicator and man-manager if Boro re going to get all their players fired up for the cause.

Overall I think the general feeling is one of relief – it’s never pretty jettisoning a manger but there seemed no other option left given the stakes and the time left to make any difference.

So Boro need a bit of luck and perhaps we can hope that a weight has been taken off the shoulders of the players to express themselves and give us the bounce that other clubs in our position have had before us.

Boro are facing a soft 'PLexit' in comparison to 2009

For Steve Gibson the last seven years were all about returning to the Premier League, but now there’s a strong possibility that Boro are going to be heading back to the second tier as the bad run has turned into a slump and the games are starting to run out. OK, it’s not a forgone conclusion but I’m sure the prospect is starting to be planned for. This appears to be the nightmare scenario for all the hard work getting to the promised land, though there’s even been some suggestion from a few that relegation may be part of the chairman’s master plan to bolster the club’s finances and regroup.

Personally, for me that’s a conspiracy theory too far for a man who has spent his life building the club into a top tier outfit – incidentally Steve Gibson will be celebrating his 60th birthday next season and has over 30 seasons behind him steering the club as primarily a Boro fan. Naturally mistakes will have been made but surely no chairman who has been around for so long would consider relegation a viable option. So that argument doesn’t make sense but I’ve decide to look at the financial implication that relegation would entail and how it compares to the last time we went down.

After our last relegation the Chairman no doubt planned to oversee a swift return to the top flight but he probably couldn’t have imagined it would take so long in the end. Although our first campaign saw an indifferent start under Southgate, Boro were still well placed but Steve Gibson decided change was required and gambled on one last last throw of the dice under Strachan’s infamous ‘Jockification’ project. Sadly it failed miserably and it was then left to Tony Mowbray to rebuild slowly when the money ran out. Unfortunately, Mogga couldn’t sustain his early progress on a shoestring and that subsequently heralded the arrival of Aitor Karanka, who organised Boro into promotion contenders with support from a relaxing of the purse strings after Gibson had wrote off the club’s debts.

The financial situation last time was shaped by the fact the club had accumulated over their years in the top flight a massive debt of nearly £100m – this was also in the shadow of the banking crisis of 2008 and no doubt Bulkhaul were expecting tough times ahead too. In 2009, when Boro were last relegated the gap in terms of TV income between the Premier League and Championship was £40m and parachute payments were around £11m with only £2.5m for second tier TV money – which meant the shortfall was around £25m. For those interested in reading more about Boro’s financial situation back then David Conn of the Guardian wrote this piece at the time: Gibson confident relegation need not be life-threatening for Middlesbrough

Premier League Bonanza

This year has seen a huge jump in the rewards for being at the top table. The Premier League domestic prize money pot is split into three parts – 50% is shared equally between all clubs, 25% is divided based on final position with £2m per place up the ladder (e.g. 20th = £2m, 19th = £4m … 1st = £40m) with the remaining 25% based on TV appearances and is dependent on how often a club is on the box (last season most clubs in bottom half received between £10-12m and the top clubs getting around double that at £21-24m). In addition, each club now receives an equal share of £47m from overseas TV rights.

The new formula for Parachute Payments is that relegated clubs get a percentage of the equal share TV money paid to Premier League members (which doesn’t include place money or TV appearance money). This season, from the figures I’ve seen published, that share represents £38m domestic rights plus £47m overseas rights – giving a base total of £85m. This share represents the following Parachute sums:

Year 1: 55% (£85m) = £47m
Year 2: 45% (£85m) = £38m
Year 3: 20% (£85m) = £17m

It should be noted that promoted clubs that only survive a single season will not get a Year 3 payment – which would affect Boro if they went down.

The club finishing in last place this season should expect a payment of £97m in prize money – so in the words of Jim Bowen ‘That’s safe’. You should also take into account that Boro will have enjoyed increased ticket revenues this season as attendances have remained around the 30,000 mark – plus sponsorship deals and merchandising revenues will no doubt be higher for being in the PL.

Taking prize money and potential parachute payments, it probably means promotion has given Boro a guaranteed £183m and we can probably assume that is closer to £200m with subsequent increased PL revenues. Naturally costs in the PL will be higher in terms of wages and transfer fees – though I would think most of these cost will be easily manageable on relegation as, for example, Negredo is probably our biggest earner and he’s on loan – no doubt Ramirez will be off too come summer and probably closely followed by Downing.

So relegation for Boro in the short term should not be a major financial hardship and given that it is a new system they will be one of the clubs with the biggest budget next season if they go down. In some ways it’s helpful that Boro haven’t been in the PL long enough to have accumulated players on unsustainable contracts, so it’s less likely that the club will have to sell players on the cheap to get their wages off the books.

Championship Budget

In the Championship every pound counts when it comes to financing a promotion campaign – Boro managed to increase their turnover in the season before they got promoted by £8m to £20m. This was thanks to the £3m Play-off bonus (where there is a convention that losing finalist takes all the gate money) and £1.5m from two big cup away-days at Man City and Arsenal – on top of that Riverside attendance rose by around 25% from 16k to 20k.

So in the context of Boro’s budget for our last promotion year, you could probably estimate it was around £33m, as that £20m turnover will have been bolstered by a further £13m from the combination of Steve Gibson’s own pocket as the maximum permitted cash injection by an owner under FFP (Financial Fair Play) was £8m and the maximum loss under FFP rules was £5m – which gives an extra £13m beyond turnover to play with.

So in financial terms Boro would be in a far greater position to fund a promotion push should they go down this season. They will pickup between £97-101m in PL prize money at the end of this season as a relegated club – on top of that they will be entitled to Year 1 parachute payments of £47m plus you could perhaps expect £15m on turnover.

Incidentally, Championship prize money is now calculated as 30% of a Year 3 Parachute payment – which works out as about £5m.

So in comparison to our last year in the Championship where Boro had a budget around £33m, the club’s coffers should be swelled to £160m – that’s more or less five times more. Naturally the club will be carrying extra running costs as player’s contracts will have been upgraded and the club will have incurred costs when the Riverside was refurbished to meet PL requirements. It’s quite possible that some of those contracts will have relegation clauses in them, it was something I recall Steve Gibson and Neil Bausor indicated was a sensible approach in the Untypical Boro boardroom meeting that I attended when Mogga was still in charge.

In addition, FFP rules are no longer based on yearly accounts but are now averaged over three years – though rather than allowing Boro to spend more next year I would suggest it may be more beneficial as insurance for spending more in years 3 and 4 when the parachute payments run out. Surely the £160m windfall is considerably more than enough to finance a Championship team capable of promotion.

Relegation as a plan?

Some might be reading these figures and thinking that maybe relegation is a better financial option after all if you’ve just picked up over £150m and you can avoid more heavy spending in the Premier League as you attempt to upgrade the players. On the face of it that may look an attractive option but there is a slight problem.

Statistically, around two-thirds of relegated clubs don’t come back up and as it will become increasingly harder as parachute payments run out. Boro would essentially have only two seasons to make their financial clout count – then it would be back to belt-tightening and competing probably against at least half-dozen clubs with much bigger budgets.

The difference in TV prize money for clubs without Parachute Payments is growing – when Boro were last relegated it was about £40m, it’s now more than double that at £100m. Anyone thinking getting relegated is a risk worth taking in order to bank a quick profit needs to consider that after two years the club will be essentially back to running on gate-receipts and other generated income – and that adds up to around £15m

So in conclusion – being relegated probably won’t be a major financial problem for two years – but by being out of the PL you are probably losing out on around £50m per year depending on your operating costs. Therefore it’s highly unlikely Steve Gibson would see going down as a chance to cash in as he’s probably got an evens chance that he’ll be bankrolling the club out of his own pocket again within three years.

Of course the key question will be if Boro do go down can they regroup and bounce back? I can’t see finances as being any kind of obstacle but it will be on the field where this is determined. Some have suggested perhaps the tried and tested methods of Aitor Karanka are best suited to the grind of the Championship, where playing twice a week against on the whole average sides needs steady rather than spectacular football. They may be right but I’ll leave that argument for another day…

Karanka attempts confidence trick with one eye on Wembley

This weekend we enter the parallel universe of the FA Cup once again, Boro have nudged to one side the trivial matter of a home game to bottom club Sunderland for a chance of glory against the pale blue side of Manchester and the prospect of a trip to Wembley. After seeing off at the Riverside Championship, League Two and League One opposition, those in charge of the numbered balls have decide if Boro are going to win the cup then we’re probably now going to have to beat three of the best sides from the Premier League.

OK for a team who hasn’t beaten a Premier League team for nearly three months this may sound like a big ask, but the cup is not the league and Boro have actually fared pretty well against those top teams still left in the competition – two draws and three single goal defeats. The other good news is that it’s actually possible to lift the trophy without scoring a single goal in open play – so better get practising those spot kicks gents. Though to be fair the FA Cup has been something of goal-fest for Boro this season, having twice knocked in a treble to give us a magnificent seven in total – that’s equivalent to over three-months worth of league net action.

All eyes were on the press conference yesterday as Karanka made his first public appearance since many of us, along with most of the media, have been discussing whether or not he has reached the end at Boro. Though when the eagerly anticipated question of whether he had spoke to Steve Gibson arose, the Boro boss revealed that the only topic of conversation between him and chairman was this weekend’s FA Cup game – well they’ve no doubt exhausted the topic of talking about the weather over dinner during recent weeks, so it must be a welcome distraction to be able to talk about football again.

Though the buzz word for the press conference was ‘Confidence’ – it was everywhere. When the Boro boss was asked whether the fact that Steve Gibson has always been patient and helpful to his managers had given him confidence, he replied “The most difficult moment for me was when I arrived here, but he was the first one who transmitted his confidence. I don’t need to feel that every day.” Indeed the confidence theme continued with Karanka declaring that he and his staff were trying to show their confidence to the players – who he revealed still had a good spirit but were low in confidence following the recent games.

Perhaps the only nod in the direction of the growing pressure on him was when he expressed the view that every situation is new for him as a manager so he must learn, modify his training, know the mistakes he is making and try to give the players all his confidence. Karanka went on to explain that you can train to play more attacking, which he said they have been for several weeks, but all this work is for nothing if the players don’t have the confidence to execute what they have been working on.

So Karanka has been primarily concerned with raising that confidence and he decided to show them a few videos. On hearing the news, some of the players had no doubt started making themselves comfy in anticipation of a box-set of a Game of Thrones – though perhaps ahead of his return to the team Barragan would have gained more from a private viewing of a game of throw-ins. Anyway, the Boro boss plumped for showing the lads some of their best bits, including the decent showing of their trip to Arsenal. Whether this was the perfect antidote for a team who has struggled to score is debatable, though Karanka’s attention to detail appears to have overlooked that the game ended 0-0. Maybe he didn’t want them getting too excited just in case they go all gung-ho at the weekend and besides from his post-match reflections I believe the Swansea game is not in his best bits collection.

I suspect copies of the Daily Telegraph will have been removed from the training ground as part of the positive mood ambience being created. They claimed yesterday that Karanka’s Boro are the second most boring team ever in Premier League history, narrowly being edged out of top spot by George Graham’s Leeds team – apparently we’re like watching paint dry. I couldn’t disagree more – clearly they’ve never attempted to paint a 60 square meter freshly plaster-boarded living room ceiling in the middle of summer – I practically ran with the roller as I tried to avoid lapping marks as the emulsion rapidly dried, it was so exciting I ended up putting on a further 6 coats. Anyway, I better save my paint drying anecdotes for the international break.

So returning back to the quarter-finals, and rather sadly (and perhaps pedantically) this has now become the last chance for football fans to sing Que sera sera, whatever will be will be, we going to Wembley, Que sera sera. Yes, the move to Wembley for the semi-finals has somewhat robbed many fans of this vocal ritual. I mean, what exactly are delirious supporters now supposed to sing as their team goes two-up with ten minutes to play in the semi’s – it just wouldn’t make sense to sing you’re going somewhere when you’re already standing there – clearly the FA haven’t thought through the impact that their ill-conceived premature pilgrimage to the home of football will have on this crooning crescendo rite of passage – You may as well have the teams arrive on the pitch in an open-top double-decker bus holding replica trophies. It has both devalued the competition and cheapened the experience.

Though I’m still unsure how a 1956 Doris Day number became the song of choice for glory-seeking football fans everywhere – besides I find the lyrics are perhaps a tad too philosophical about the possible outcome of your team’s chances in the cup final once they get there – If one of my mates asked me “Won’t it be great if we win the cup?” and I just replied “whatever will be will be” he’d probably assume I wasn’t that bothered and would make plans go with someone else.

Still there’s a long tradition of pop songs making their way onto the terraces so maybe we’ll now see a more fitting anthem emerge one day – though given the latest video technology and the recent trend of pop duets from beyond the grave, perhaps the time has come for Mogga and Doris Day to release ‘It is what it is’- though not rhyming with Wembley could prove to be a problem.

The team news for Saturday will be interesting – though Boro are back in another defensive injury crisis and there is little room to manoeuvre – Ayala and Chambers are definitely out and George is extremely doubtful with a re-occurence of his calf strain. That means Barragan will return at right-back as Fabio moves back to the left, which leaves Gibson and Bernado in the centre with only Dael Fry as back-up. Karanka was being coy about whether Negredo will return but it probably wouldn’t be a smart move to leave him out against his old club if he’s trying to lift spirits. There was no mention of Gaston yesterday but the enigmatic Uruguayan needs to decide if he’s in the boat or sulking in a dingy being towed along by his team-mates. I suspect we’ll see a midfield three as Boro are playing a top-six side and although Adama was poor last time out, without his pace there may be little to worry City.

So will Boro be on their way to Wembley singing Que Sera Sera or will it be Hasta la Vista Baby to the Cup as City terminate our run. As usual give your predictions of Score, Scorers (yes it happens in the cup) and will Barragan have learnt to throw the ball during his absence.